ABS Population Statistics confirm no change to State Representation for the Next Federal Election
(Update 23 July: the Electoral Commissioner’s determination has been published in the government gazette today. You can find it here.
The official calculations are the same as the ones in this post except the Territories have slightly higher numbers after adding in Norfolk Island and Jervis Bay to the ACT, and Christmas Island and Cocos Keeling Island to the Northern Territory.)
(Original post from 18 June follows)
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has today released state population figures for the last quarter of 2025. These numbers confirm that there will be no change to state representation in the House of Representatives for the next Federal election.
The interest had been whether Queensland would be entitled to an extra seat for its twice delayed redistribution of Federal electoral boundaries.
Under the 7-year rule, Queensland had been due to have a redistribution begin in March 2025. Clearly this wasn’t possible with a Federal election due.
The redistribution should have started after the election along with the redistributions in Tasmania, South Australia and the ACT.
The Queensland redistribution was officially deferred until after a determination on state representation by the Electoral Commissioner to be made in July 2026
If Queensland was going to be allocated a 31st seat, there was no point starting a redistribution for 30 seats. The Australian Bureau of Statistics figures released today confirm that Queensland will remain with 30 members.
No change in state numbers will become official in July when the Australian Electoral Commissioner Jeff Pope issues a formal determination of the number of House members to be elected form each state and territory. The determination is always made one year after the first sitting of the House of Representatives following an election.
Commissioner Pope has no personal choice in making the determination as the method is strictly defined in law. For states the Commissioner will apply the formula set out in Section 24 of the Constitution. For the Territories the Commissioner will use the formula set out in the Electoral Act. The Constitution also states that the Commissioner will use the “latest statistics of the Commonwealth”, a phrase the High Court and Parliament has determined will be the quarterly population statistics. Today’s ABS release of last December’s statistics is the population numbers that Commissioner Pope will use.
The precise calculations around how seats are allocated is explained inside this post.
Once the new numbers are officially announced at the end of July, a redistribution of Queensland federal boundaries will commence based on re-drawing the existing 30 seats. The new boundaries will be in place for the next election due in 2028.Read More »ABS Population Statistics confirm no change to State Representation for the Next Federal Election