FED26 Redistributions – ACT Draft Boundaries

Draft federal electoral boundaries for the ACT’s three House of Representatives’ seats have been released this morning. The redistribution has been required under the Electoral Act’s seven-year rule where boundaries are periodically re-drawn to bring electorate enrolments back within permitted variation from quota.

The draft boundaries have proved to be more complex than expected. Rather than a simple transfer of voters from the southern seat of Bean to central Canberra with the northern seat of Fenner left unchanged, the Redistribution has adopted a more extensive proposal that alters all three electorates. My estimated new margins are shown below with more detail inside the post.

Note: The Labor versus Independent calculation for Bean has added the vote for the Independent in Canberra to the vote for Jess Price in Bean. This probably underestimates the support Price might have received in the added areas but it is not really possible to estimate how Price might have polled. After transferring the primary votes I’ve applied the preference distribution for Bean. This produces a 1.4% major which I suspect is a little higher than it should be. I’ll have a think if there is a better method for the final boundaries later in the year.

The method I normally use is to use the ratio of Senate to House vote for the larger parties. That method is not possible in the ACT because the success of Independent David Pocock in the Senate means all other parties have a lower Senate vote than House vote.

More detail on the redistribution and much more on the ins and outs of each division inside the post.

The Redistribution process

Two quotas are applied in undertaking a federal redistribution. The first is that all electorates must be within 10% of the quota or average enrolment at the time of the redistribution. The second and more important quota is based on projected enrolments three and a half years into the future. Projected enrolments for each seat must be within 3.5% of the projected quota.

On current enrolments, all three seats are within 10% of the quota. Bean is 6.26% above quota, Canberra 4.37% under and Fenner 1.88% under.

Boundary changes are required based on projected enrolments. Both Bean and Canberra lie outside the permitted variation. Bean is 7.63% above the projected quota, Canberra 4.93% under, while Fenner is within permitted variation at 2.7% under quota.

The redistribution Committee could have met the criteria with a simple transfer of electors from Bean Canberra. Instead, the Commissioners have examined growth rates across central Canberra and engaged in swaps between all three electorates to balance enrolment growth while maintaining communities of interest.

Curtin, Garran, Hughes and Lyons, 10,654 electors, have been transferred into Bean from Canberra, while the rapidly growing Molonglo Valley district and 11,713 electors has been moved the other way from Bean into Canberra. Importantly the projected enrolment for this newly developing area is 17,362 so solving the projected quota problem.

The Committee has then decided to swap suburbs between Fenner and Canberra as well to boost Fenner’s enrolment and include more of Belconnen in Fenner. Hawker, Macquarie and Weetangera have been re-united with other parts of Belconnen in Fenner, while the newer suburb of Crace is transferred into Canberra.

And a little footnote. Norfolk Island has been transferred from Bean to a more sensible home in Canberra.

Bean

The table below sets out the party vote in Bean before the redistribution (first column) and after (final column) with the central columns being transfers between Bean and Canberra. Canberra was a Labor versus Greens contest in 2025 while Bean was a Labor versus Price (IND) contest. I’ve adjusted the final column to try and estimate a new two-candidate preferred count between Labor and Price.

I’ve transferred vote in Canberra for Independent Claire Miles to Price but this probably underestimates what Price might have polled in the areas added to bean.

Canberra

Again, before and after figures for Canberra are shown along with the figures for the transferred in and out with bean and Fenner.

Canberra was a Labor versus Greens contest in 2025. The areas transferred from Bean were a Labor versus Independent contest while Fenner was Labor versus Liberal. Canberra did see a significant Independent candidate in 2025 with Claire Miles. I’ve estimated a new Labor versus Greens two-candidate preferred result along with an actual Labor versus Liberal two-party count.

Fenner