October 2024

QLD2024 – Preference Flows and Vote by Type compared to 2020

Rather than write a daily post on vote updates, I’ve been putting my effort into ensuring results are as accurate as possible on the ABC Queensland Election Results site.

While the ECQ conducted indicative preference counts for all votes counted on the weekend, it has ceased undertaking further preference counts and removed the weekend’s totals from its website.

Before the data was removed, I captured all the available preference flow data and used it to re-build the preference formulas in the ABC’s election computer. The ABC results site is now applying the weekend’s preference flow data to the latest first preference totals being released by the ECQ.

In this post I will provide some analysis of these flows compared to 2020, and also look at the dramatic increase in swing that occurred on election night as pre-poll centre counts began to arrive.

As at the close of counting on Monday, the swing against Labor on polling day votes was 4.9%, but 8.6% for Pre-polls and 10.3% on the initial count of postal votes. That explains why the swing rose through the evening.

There’s more on vote by type and preference flows inside the post.
Read More »QLD2024 – Preference Flows and Vote by Type compared to 2020

Early Voting and how tonight’s Queensland Election Night Count might unfold

As usual I put this post here for the information of the tens of thousands of people Google sends here on election night.

I won’t be posting here tonight as I will be part of the ABC’s live Queensland election coverage. The broadcast will start at 6pm Queensland time on the ABC’s main channel. It will also be available on the ABC Newschannel, from 6pm in Queensland, 5pm 7pm in the southern Daylight saving time states, and the equivalent live time in other states.,

In this post I have a wrap of the final early voting figures, and a few warnings on how tonight’s count will unfold. Polling day counting will report quickly but the giant counts required for pre-poll voting centres will take longer to finish.

There is every chance that Labor’s results will look strong early in the evening, only to fade with later pre-poll vote counting.

There will also be a full results service at the ABC’s Queensland election site.
Read More »Early Voting and how tonight’s Queensland Election Night Count might unfold

ACT2024 – Post-Election Results Thread

Saturday 26 – Winners declared. I’ll update commentary once today’s Queensland election is over. The last spots discussed in the this blog went to the Greens’ Laura Nutall in Brindabella and Liberal Ed Cocks in Ginninderra.

The final party numbers are Labor ten, Liberal nine, Greens four, Independents for Canberra one, Fiona Carrick Independent one. The members re-elected, elected, defeated and retiring are as follows.

Brindabella

  • (1) Mark Parton (LIB) re-elected
  • (2) Deborah Morris (LIB) elected
  • (3) Caitlin Tough (ALP) elected
  • (4) Taimus Werner-Gibbings (ALP) elected
  • (5) Laura Nutall (GRN) re-elected
  • Defeated – Mick Gentleman (ALP)
  • Retired – Joy Burch (ALP) and Nicole Lauder (LIB)

Ginninderra

  • (1) Yvette Berry (ALP) re-elected
  • (2) Tara Cheyne (ALP) re-elected
  • (3) Peter Cain (LIB) re-elected
  • (4) Jo Clay (GRN) re-elected
  • (5) Chiaka Barry (LIB) re-elected
  • Defeated – Elizabeth Kikkert (Family First candidate, ex-Liberal MLA)

Kurrajong

  • (1) Andrew Barr (ALP) re-elected
  • (2) Elizabeth Lee (LIB) re-elected
  • (3) Rachel Stephen-Smith (ALP)
  • (4) Shane Rattenbury (GRN)
  • (5) Thomas Emmerson (IND)
  • Defeated – Rebecca Vassarotti (GRN)

Murrumbidgee

  • (1) Jeremy Hanson (LIB) re-elected
  • (2) Chris Steel (ALP) re-elected
  • (3) Fiona Carrick (IND) elected
  • (4) Ed Cocks (LIB) re-elected
  • (5) Marisa Paterson (ALP)
  • Defeated – Emma Davidson (GRN)

Yerrabi

  • (1) Michael Petterson (ALP) re-elected
  • (2) Suzanne Orr (ALP) re-elected
  • (3) Leanne Castley (LIB) re-elected
  • (4) James Milligan (LIB) re-elected
  • (5) Andrew Braddock (GRN) re-elected

Read More »ACT2024 – Post-Election Results Thread

ACT 2024 Election and Epping, Hornsby and Pittwater By-elections

Here’s my usual election day post to deal with the flood of google searches that end up being directed to my site on election day.

As usual, I am not blogging here. I will be on ABC Television doing live coverage of the ACT election with an update or two on the three NSW by-elections.

There will be a full results service on the ABC elections site for both the ACT and the by-elections. For links see inside the post.Read More »ACT 2024 Election and Epping, Hornsby and Pittwater By-elections

2024 Federal Redistributions – Draft Northern Territory Boundaries

(22 November – no objections were received for the draft boundaries and they should be gazetted in the new year for use at the 2025 Federal election.)

(4 March 2025 – after a long delay, the new boundaries will be gazetted today allowing them to be used at the soon to be announced federal election. That it has taken so long for an uncontroversial boundary change to be implemented is something that should be looked at in a review of the legislation.)

The final electoral jigsaw piece has been put in place for next year’s Federal election.

Redistributions have been finalised for NSW, WA and Victoria. Today has seen the release of draft boundaries for the Northern Territory.

These draft boundaries are now open for public comment, but as the Redistribution Commissioner’s proposal is the same as every submission suggested, the final stage of the redistribution will simply rubber stamp the draft proposal.

If you want to make a submission or read more detail on the redistribution, you can do so through the AEC’s NT Redistribution site.

In this post I’ll just give a brief summary of the change and estimated new margins for Lingiari and Solomon.Read More »2024 Federal Redistributions – Draft Northern Territory Boundaries

QLD 2024 – Tracking the Early and Postal Vote

(Post first published Thursday 17 October but will be updated each daily with 2024 figures.)

(UPDATED Friday 25 October 12:30pm – with one day of pre-polling to go. Totals now at 1,385,588 early votes representing 37.6% of enrolment have been taken, up from 33.2% to the same day in 2020. Applications for postal votes have closed and the rate of applications is down from 26.8% in 2020 to 18.8% in 2024. So far 33.9% of postal votes have been returned.)

The 2020 Queensland election was conducted in the first year of Covid restrictions. As a Covid measure, the Electoral Commission Queensland (ECQ) allowed an extended period for postal vote applications. The period for applications in 2024 reverted to usual period starting with the writ issue in early October. Postal vote applications close in Queensland on the day that pre-poll voting starts, two weeks before polling day.

The chart below shows that there is a small increase in pre-poll voting to date, perhaps reflecting the lower rate of postal voting. Further information inside the post.


Read More »QLD 2024 – Tracking the Early and Postal Vote

ACT 2024 – Tracking the Early Vote

(Post first published Friday 11 October but will be updated each daily with 2024 figures.)

Final Totals – 144,863 pre-poll votes have been cast representing 45.5% of enrolment. That will end up being just over 50% of all votes given a 2020 turnout of 89.2%. The final day of pre-polling took 25,437 votes, slightly down on the final day in 2020, perhaps due to several downpours during the day. Graphs of the final numbers are below and inside the post.

The 2020 ACT election was conducted in the first year of Covid restrictions. As a Covid measure, the ACT Electoral Commission removed all restrictions on early voting, increased the number of early voting centres and opened early voting centres on Saturday and Sunday.

As a result the rate of early voting in 2020 was more than double the 2016 rate. As a percentage of enrolment, early voting rose from 29.5% to 63.5%. As a percentage of final votes cast, the rate increased from 33.6% to 69.9%.

For the 2024 election, unrestricted access to early voting remains in place, but the period for pre-poll voting has been reduced from three weeks to two, from 19 days to 11. The number of early voting centres has also been reduced from 15 to 11.

As the chart below shows, the late start for early voting means that the numbers are well down on the same period in 2020. But even with a shorter early voting period, rates are well ahead of the numbers for the longer early voting period in 2016.


Read More »ACT 2024 – Tracking the Early Vote

QLD2024 – Candidates and Parties Contesting Election

A total of 525 candidates have nominated for the 2024 Queensland, second only to 597 in 2020 as the most candidates to contest a Queensland election.

The Labor Party, LNP, Greens and One Nation have nominated for every electorates, followed by Family First with 59 candidates and Legalise Cannabis 29. Full breakdown by party inside the post.

More to come and I will also post a link here when I have all candidates posted on the ABC website.Read More »QLD2024 – Candidates and Parties Contesting Election