(22 November – I’ve been through and finalised the split and merged SA1s to produce my final version of the margins. They have been incorporated into the table inside the post.)
(UPDATE – the final boundaries have been released confirming the abolition of North Sydney. There are some very minor changes of at most 0.1% and these have been updated in the table.)
(UPDATE – Friday 13 September – a discrepancy where the new electorate file coded Mcmahon rather than McMahon caused an error in my calculations. The significant changes are that Blaxland drops back from 13.9% to 13.1% while the new margin for McMahon is now 10.5% as opposed to the original estimate of 13.1%. There is also a minor adjustment for Fowler.
On Thursday 12 September, the Redistribution Committee for New South Wales released the final version of the state’s new Federal electoral boundaries. Draft boundaries were released in June and opened for public comment. This final version will be formally gazetted later this month and used for the first time at next year’s Federal election.
The redistribution has taken place to decrease the number of NSW federal divisions from 47 to 46. The final boundaries have confirmed the abolition of the Independent held seat of North Sydney.
The draft boundaries were released when I was overseas so this post is my first analysis of the draft boundaries. Today’s release includes a string small number of minor adjustments to the draft boundaries, none of which alter the analysis in this post. I will make minor adjustments to this post once the AEC publishes the datafiles required for calculations, sometime next month.
Re-calculating margins is a complex task of processing AEC polling place data files on where people voted in 2022 and comparing them with Bureau of Statistics files listing the low level SA1 (Statistical Area 1) composition of new electorates. Complicating the process is a re-numbering of many SA1s between the 2016 and 2021 Censuses. The 2022 AEC files used the old SA1 identifiers and the new electorate files use the new SA1 identifier. This has required a lot of fiddling with data to resolve inconsistencies between SA1 identifiers. Not all of the SA1 inconsistencies could be resolved but I do not believe they significantly affect any calculations.
The AEC will release its own versions of new margins next year as the election approaches. The AEC has many more resources to resolve SA1 inconsistencies and splits than are available to me.
Change in Seat Numbers
| ALP | LIB | NAT | GRN | IND | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Old boundaries | 26 | 9 | 7 | .. | 5 | 47 |
| New boundaries | 25 | 10 | 7 | .. | 4 | 46 |
Based on traditional two-party preferred results, including for the underlying Labor-Coalition nature of Independent held seats, the changes in two-party preferred holdings are –
- Old Boundaries 2PP: Labor 27, Coalition 20 (Liberal 13, National 7)
- New Boundaries 2PP: Labor 26, Coalition 20 (Liberal 13, National 7)
The changes are brought about by the abolition of Independent-held North Sydney, a flow on impact of which is to flip neighbouring Bennelong from being a marginal Labor seat to as very marginal Liberal seat.
The three-way carve up of North Sydney along council boundaries is shown in the map below.
The main political implications of the changes are –
- A relative decline in enrolment on Sydney’s lower north shore and northern beaches suburbs required a seat to be abolished north of the harbour, and as predicted before the process began, North Sydney has been abolished and divided between the re-drawn seats of Bennelong, Bradfield and Warringah.
- There was also a shortfall south of the harbour but this has been fixed by a shift west and south-west of all boundaries to absorb a significant surplus of enrolments in south-west Sydney.
- The Liberal electorate of Hume has also become an urban seat, shedding almost of all of its rural areas along the Hume Highway north of the ACT. It is now based on Camden in Sydney’s outer south-west fringe, along with western Parts of Liverpool Council and semi-rural Wollondilly Shire to the south. Geographically the changes are massive but the Liberal margin declines only slightly, from 7.7% to 6.9%.
- The abolition of North Sydney is bad new for Independent Kylea Tink, but neighbouring Independents Sophie Scamps in Mackellar and Zali Staggall in Warringah retain their margins. There are few changes to the boundaries the western Sydney seat of Fowler won by Independent Dai Le in 2022.
- In Wentworth, Independent Allegra Spender is significantly strengthened. Wentworth is a traditional Liberal seat but surrounding by Labor voting territory. By expanding into neighbouring Sydney and Kingsford Smith, Wentworth’s underlying Liberal 2-party preferred margin declines from 5.9% to 1.2%. Estimating a new Independent margin for the areas added to the seat is difficult, but a best estimate is that the addition of areas with weaker Liberal support boosts the Independent margin from 4.2% to 6.6%.
- In Bradfield, Liberal MP Paul Fletcher faced a significant Independent challenge in 2022 that reduced his margin to just 4.2% versus an Independent. By shifting south and picking up parts of North Sydney, his margin is reduced to 2.5%. His Independent challenger from 2022, Nicolette Boele, has already announced she will contest the next election. It is unclear whether Kylea Tink will also contest Bradfield if the final boundaries confirm the abolition of her seat.
- As already mentions, the abolition of North Sydney turns Bennelong from a marginal Labor seat to a very marginal Liberal sea.
- By losing its Labor-voting southern end and extending north of Windsor Road, Michelle Rowland’s Labor seat of Greenway has its margin cut from 11.5% to an estimated 8.1%. As has been shown in the past, if the Liberal Party can select a good candidate, Greenway is a more marginal seat than it often appears on paper.
- The Liberal margin for Hughes is cut from 7.0% to 3.6% as it loses Liberal voting areas near Sutherland and is pushed west beyond the Georges River to gain Labor voting territory from Weriwa and Macarthur.
(There may changes to the construction of Hughes in the final boundaries.)There were no changes with the final boundaries. - In the Hunter valley, the transfer for Kurri Kurri strengthens Labor in Hunter but weakens its position in Paterson.
- The National margin in Riverina declines from 14.8% to a still safe 9.7% after picking up parts of Eden-Monaro and Hume.
The new margin estimates in this post have not taken into account the adjustments included in the final boundaries. However, the list of adjustments released seem unlikely to change the estimated margins below.
Seat tables can be found inside the post.
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: LIB 3.2% | MP: David Coleman (Liberal) Banks’ northern boundary pushes north from the M5 to Milperra Road. Also gains Blakehurst and Carrs Park from Cook while losing Allawah to Barton. Around 12,000 voters added north of the M5 voted 60% Labor, with half that number transferred from Cook voting 63.0% Liberal, the 10,000 voters moved into Barton splitting evenly. All round this reduces the Liberal margin in Banks. |
| New: LIB 2.6% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 15.5% | MP: Linda Burney (Labor) – retiring Barton’s northern boundary with Grayndler shifts south to its traditional alignment along the Cooks River. Various other boundary re-alignments with Banks, Cook and Kingsford Smith. The Labor margin declines as the areas north of the Cooks River removed voted 76% Labor in 2022. |
| New: ALP 12.0% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 1.0% | MP: Jerome Laxale (Labor) |
| New: LIB 0.1% |
The abolition of North Sydney pulls Bennelong eastward. In the west it loses Ermington and Carlingford to Parramatta and Epping to Berowra. Into the electorate come the Hunters Hill and Lane Cove Councils. Bennelong is transformed from a 1% marginal Labor seat to a 0.1% marginal Liberal seat. The eastern end of Bennelong now aligns closely with the Bennelong first won by John Howard at the 1974 election. Every redistribution since 1974 has shifted Bennelong further west and it has taken the abolition of North Sydney to reverse that trend.
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: LIB 9.8% | MP: Julian Leeser (Liberal) On its southern edge Berowra gains Epping from Bennelong and gains the balance of Asquith, Horsnby, Waitara and Normanhurst from Bradfield. |
| New: LIB 7.5% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 14.9% | MP: Jason Clare (Labor) Remains a safe Labor seat despite major boundary changes. Loses areas south of the Hume Highway to Watson and Banks. Boundaries shift north to the M4 and west to the Cumberland Highway. |
| New: ALP 13.0% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: LIB 4.2% v IND LIB 6.5% 2PP |
MP: Paul Fletcher (Liberal) |
| New: LIB 2.5% v IND LIB 6.2% 2PP |
Liberal MP Paul Fletcher faced a significant Independent challenge in 2022 that reduced his margin to just 4.2% versus an Independent. By shifting south, losing areas closer to Hornsby and picking up parts of the abolished seat of North Sydney, his margin is reduced further to 2.5%. His Independent challenger from 2022, Nicolette Boele, has already announced she will contest Bradfield at the next election. It is unclear whether North Sydney MP Kylea Tink will also contest Bradfield with the abolition of her seat.
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: NAT 9.7% v IND NAT 15.5% 2PP |
MP: Andrew Gee (Independent/ex-National) Unchanged |
| New: NAT 9.7% v IND NAT 15.5% 2PP |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 13.5% | MP: Ed Husic (Labor) Loses an area south of the western rail line and east of the M7 to McMahon. |
| New: ALP 13.6% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: LIB 12.4% | MP: Simon Kennedy (Liberal) since succeeding Scott Morrison at an April 2024 by-election. Areas on the northern side of the Georges River apart from Sans Souci are divided between Banks, Barton and Kingsford Smith. In the Sutherland Shire Cook gains Kirrawee, Oyster Bay and parts of Jannali as the boundary with Hughes moves west to the railway line. |
| New: LIB 11.6% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: NAT 2.3% v IND NAT 9.5% 2PP |
MP: Pat Conaghan (National) Loses 2,400 voters in northern Coffs Harbour to Page. |
| New: NAT 2.4% v IND NAT 9.5% 2PP |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 14.7% | MP: Alison Byrnes (Labor) Gains areas on the northern and eastern shores of Lake Illawarra from Whitlam. |
| New: ALP 15.1% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 6.5% | MP: Emma McBride (Labor) Minor boundary adjustment with Robertson. |
| New: ALP 6.6% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 8.2% | MP: Kristy McBain (Labor) Loses the areas west of the ACT between Yass and the Victorian border to Riverina. Pushes north to take in the regional centre of Goulburn from Hume. The areas removed voted 55.6% Labor in 2022, the areas added 55.0% Liberal producing a decline in the Labor margin. |
| New: ALP 6.2% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: LIB 16.4% | MP: Sussan Ley (Liberal) Unchanged |
| New: LIB 16.4% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: IND 1.6% v ALP ALP 5.7% 2PP |
MP: Dai Le (Independent) Only minor changes with the loss of a small area north of Polding Street to McMahon. |
| New: IND 1.1% v ALP ALP 5.9% 2PP |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 0.2% | MP: Fiona Phillips (Labor) A minor adjustement to the southern boundary with Eden-Monaro. |
| New: ALP 0.2% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 17.1% v GRN ALP 28.9% 2PP |
MP: Anthony Albanese (Labor) |
| New: ALP 17.3% v GRN ALP 26.6% 2PP |
Loses the Balmain peninsula north of the City West Link to Sydney. Gains areas south of Marrickville Road from Barton as the seat’s boundary returns to its traditional alignment along the Cooks River. Extends west gaining Ashbury, Croydon Park and Enfield from Watson.
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 11.5% | MP: Michelle Rowland (Labor) |
| New: ALP 8.0% |
Greenway loses Labor voting suburbs south of the western rail line and Abbott Road to McMahon and Parramatta. Extends north of Windsor Road into Liberal voting territory around Rouse Hill and Box Hill. These change combine to reduce Greenway’s margin from 11.5% to an estimated 8.1%.
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: LIB 7.0% | MP: Jenny Ware (Liberal) Loses suburbs east of the southern rail line to Cook while stretching west and crossing the Georges River to take in parts of Macquarie Fields and Ingelburn from Werriwa and Macarthur. |
| New: LIB 3.5% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: LIB 7.7% | MP: Angus Taylor (Liberal) |
| New: LIB 6.9% |
Hume has become an urban seat, shedding almost of all of its rural areas along the Hume Highway north of the ACT to Eden-Monaro and Riverina. It is now based on Camden in Sydney’s outer south-west fringe, along with western parts of Liverpool Council and semi-rural Wollondilly Shire to the south. Geographically the changes are massive but the Liberal margin declines only marginally, from 7.7% to 6.9%.
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 4.0% | MP: Dan Repacholi (Labor) Loses Muswellbrook to New England and gains Kurri Kurri from Paterson. The area removed voted 49.7% Labor in 2022, the added area 60.7% which produces an overall lift in the Labor vote. |
| New: ALP 4.8% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 14.5% | MP: Matt Thistlethwaite (Labor) Loses areas north of Alison Road to Wentworth. Gains what cartographers call a pan-handle through a thin strip of suburbs along Botany Bay from Barton and Cook. |
| New: ALP 13.3% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: LIB 6.3% | MP: Melissa McIntosh (Liberal) Loses those parts of Penrith Council west of the Nepean River to Macquarie. |
| New: LIB 6.1% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: NAT 13.8% | MP: David Gillespie (National) Unchanged |
| New: NAT 13.8% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 8.5% | MP: Mike Freelander (Labor) Loses Catherine Field and Oran Park west of Camden Valley Way to Hume. Loses Ingleburn to Hughes. Gains part of Denham Court and Leppington from Werriwa. |
| New: ALP 9.8% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: IND 2.5% v LIB LIB 8.6% 2PP |
MP: Sophie Scamps (Independent) Gains voters in the south with the transfer of North Curl Curl, Killarney heights and the rest of Forestville from Warringah. |
| New: IND 3.3% v LIB LIB 7.9% 2PP |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 7.8% | MP: Susan Templeman (Labor) Gains parts of Penrith Council west of the Nepean River from Lindsay. |
| New: ALP 6.3% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 9.5% | MP: Chris Bowen (Labor) Loses areas east of the Cumberland Highway to Blaxland. Pushes north of the Great Western Highway to the main railway line to gain areas from Chifley and Greenway. |
| New: ALP 10.5% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: LIB 10.7% | MP: Alex Hawke (Liberal) Loses Box Hill and parts of Rouse Hill in the north to Greenway. In the east gains area around West Pennant Hills from Berowra. |
| New: LIB 10.5% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: NAT 16.4% | MP: Barnaby Joyce (National) Gains the small Gwydir Shire in the north from Parkes and the much larger Muswellbrook Shire in the south from Hunter. The National two-party vote in Muswellbrook was only 50.3% causing the National margin to decline from 16.4% to a still very safe 15.2%. |
| New: NAT 15.2% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 18.0% | MP: Sharon Claydon (Labor) Minor boundary change with neighbouring Hunter. |
| New: ALP 17.9% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: IND 2.9% v LIB LIB 1.3% 2PP |
MP: Kylea Tink (Independent) Divided three ways along council boundaries. The rest of North Sydney Council is transferred to Warringah, Lane Cove and Hunters Hill councils to Bennelong, and Willoughby Council to Bradfield. |
| New: ABOLISHED |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: NAT 10.7% | MP: Kevin Hogan (National) Gains around 2,400 voters in Coffs Harbour from Cowper. |
| New: NAT 10.7% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: NAT 17.8% | MP: Mark Coulton (National) Loses Gwydir Shire in the north to New England, expands in area with the addition of Parkes, Forbes and Bland Shires in the south from Riverina. |
| New: NAT 18.2% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 4.6% | MP: Andrew Charlton (Labor) |
| New: ALP 3.7% |
Remains centred on the Parramatta CBD but undergoes a myriad of boundary changes along the seat’s edges. Labor’s position is weakened by the loss of Labor voting suburbs south of the M4 and the addition of areas in the east from Berowra and Bennelong. Also gains Girraween in the west from Greenway.
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 3.3% | MP: Meryl Swanson (Labor) Weakened for Labor by the loss of Kurri Kurri to Hunter, an area that voted 60.7% Labor in 2022. |
| New: ALP 2.6% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 5.2% | MP: Sally Sitou (Labor) Unchanged |
| New: ALP 5.2% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 8.2% | MP: Justine Elliot (Labor) Unchanged |
| New: ALP 8.2% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: NAT 14.8% | MP: Michael McCormack (National) |
| New: NAT 9.7% |
Major changes to boundaries. In the north-west Parkes, Forbes and Bland shires have been transferred to the nelectorate of Parkes. Areas west of the ACT from Yass to the Victorian border are transferred from Eden-Monaro. Rural parts of Hume are also added in the east.
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 2.3% | MP: Gordon Reid (Labor) Minor boundary adjustment with Dobell. |
| New: ALP 2.2% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 5.8% | MP: Pat Conroy (Labor) Minor boundary change with neighbouring Hunter. |
| New: ALP 6.0% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 16.7% v GRN ALP 25.6% 2PP |
MP: Tanya Plibersek (Labor) Loses Darlinghurst, Woolloomooloo and Potts Point to Wentworth. Gains the Balmain peninsula north of the City West Link from Grayndler. |
| New: ALP 16.5% v GRN ALP 25.7% 2PP |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: IND 11.0% v LIB LIB 1.4% 2PP |
MP: Zali Steggall (Independent) |
| New: IND 9.4% v LIB LIB 0.7% 2PP |
Loses Killarney Heights, Forestville and North Curl Curl to Mackellar. Gains the rest of North Sydney Council in the west with the abolition of the seat of North Sydney.
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 15.1% | MP: Tony Burke (Labor) The need for expansion by under-quota seats to the east sees Watson undergo major boundaries as it shifts westward but without any impact on the seat’s Labor margin. |
| New: ALP 15.2% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: IND 4.2% v LIB LIB 5.9% 2PP |
MP: Allegra Spender (Independent) |
| New: IND 6.8% v LIB LIB 1.2% 2PP |
Independent Allegra Spender’s position in Wentworth is significantly strengthened. Wentworth is a traditional Liberal seat but is surrounded by Labor voting territory. By expanding into neighbouring Sydney and Kingsford Smith, Wentworth’s underlying Liberal 2-party preferred margin declines from 5.9% to 1.2%. Estimating a new Independent margin for the areas added to the seat is difficult, but a best estimate is that the addition of areas with weaker Liberal support boosts the Independent margin from 4.2% to 6.6%.
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 5.8% | MP: Anne Stanley (Labor) Previously well over quota, Werriwa loses the area west of South Creek to Hume, loses Macquarie Fields to Hughes and Leppington and Denham Court to Macarthur. |
| New: ALP 5.3% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 10.4% | MP: Stephen Jones (Labor) |
| New: ALP 8.4% |
Loses areas north and east of Lake Illawarra to Cunningham. Pushes further west into the southern highlands gaining the rest of Wingecarribee Shire from Hume.
Thanks Antony. I suppose that it is now possible that both the Liberals & Nationals will contest Whitlam?
COMMENT: They’ve done it a number of times in the last decade and there was one election where the Liberals stood aside and let the Nationals run on their own.
when will the liberals grow a brain and contest Richmond alongside the Nats. Justine Elliot decling personal vote means its soon to be a Nats v Green contest and i feel that having a less conservative liberal candidtae would help the coaliton win back the seat
Except they havent held it in 20 years
yes but thats the nats the libs should be contesting this seat now not the nats
I think seats like Whitlam, Werriwa, Robertson, Richmond, Reid, Paterson, Parramatta, Hunter, Gilmore and Bennelong are in play for the Libs in 2025. Richmond would require the greens to push the Labor party out of the 2pp and into 3rd so if the Libs put up a candidate in addition to the Nats there and in Whitlam they have a real shot. Seats like Macquarie, Eden-Monaro, Fowler and Dobell could be in play in 2028.
Fowler? Not in 2028 or ever.
Hi Antony, thanks for your great coverage as always. Has there been any update from the AEC on when draft boundaries for the NT redistribution will be released?
COMMENT: I haven’t heard anything, but then I’ve been a bit busy with other elections.
With the significant movement of Eden Monaro up to include Goulburn, do you think it more plausible that NAT could run closer to LIB vote there? Appreciate your insights / musings.
NB: last time both parties ran was in 2019 – NAT only received 7% then.
NB: Goulburn at state level is LIB, but did get notable SFF vote in 2023. The seat was previously NAT though (pre 1991 changes).
COMMENT: I’d expect the Liberals to run, perhaps with a National. Unless the Nationals have a standout candidate, I can’t see the Liberal Party standing aside from the contest.
id imagine it will be a labor hold although reduced margin probably by about 2-3% with the coalition to give them a run in 2028 and probably regain the seat along with government