Last Friday the Australian Electoral Commission issued draft electoral boundaries for Tasmania. It was the first of this year’s round of federal redistributions.
Draft boundaries for the ACT will be released in a fortnight, South Australia some time after the state election to avoid confusion, and a Queensland federal redistribution will get underway in July.
If the Albanese government goes ahead with rumoured plans to increase the size of the parliament, then all five mainland states will require redistributions before the next election. Tasmania and the two territories would be untouched by an expansion of parliamkent.
But first Tasmania.
Full details of the proposed boundaries can be found at the Australian Electoral Commission’s website. This includes details on how to make comment on or object to the new boundaries.
As I will explain in this post, the Redistribution Committee has abandoned its recent habit of engaging in incremental redistributions, boundaries adjusted at the edges to minimise the number of voters transferred between electorates.
In Tasmania, the proposed boundaries re-arrange the electoral geography of southern Tasmania. Just over a quarter of the state’s electors are moved between seats. The southern seats of Clark and Franklin split in two and re-assembled with a series of rotational swaps through the central seat of Lyons.
The Committee has decided to tackle the state’s most peculiar electoral boundary, the division of the southern seat of Franklin in two by neighbouring Clark. All means of transport between the two ends of Franklin pass through Clark, the seat covering all of central Hobart west of the Derwent River. Franklin covers the eastern shore of Hobart, plus Kingston and all populated parts of the state south of Hobart.
That Franklin has evolved this peculiar geography has roots that go back to Federation. When boundaries were first drawn in 1903, Clark (then known as Denison) covered Hobart on the western shore of the Derwent River at a time when few lived to the east. In 1903 Franklin was the state’s largest electorate in area, extending deep into central Tasmania and completely surrounded Denison. The state’s other three electorates were clustered in northern Tasmania.
Over many decades, as the population of southern Tasmania grew faster than the rest of the state, Franklin contracted south. As Hobart grew in the post-war era, new bridges across the Derwent allowed suburbia to spread to the eastern shore. Areas south of Hobart also grew. Incremental boundary changes turned a Franklin that surrounded Denison into an electorate with two distinct ends.
Federal electorates are so large it is difficult to get a single community of interest that covers an electorate. But no electorate in the country is as geographically divided as Franklin. With Clark (formerly Denison) well under quota, expansion was required with the possibility it would make the boundaries for Franklin even more illogical.
So the Committee has gone for a big bang change more likely to cope with future population shifts. Both Clark and Franklin have been split in two and re-arranged with a rotation of voters through the southern part of the central seat of Lyons.
In terms of two-party politics the new boundaries have little impact. But Clark is held by Independent Andrew Wilkie, and Franklin in 2025 saw a strong challenge from Independent Peter George. He has since gone on to win one of Franklin’s seven seats in state parliament. The proposed boundaries for Clark and Franklin drastically re-arrange Independent support.
It’s best for me to explain the change seat by seat. Note: maps have been taken from the redistribution report and are published by the Australian Electoral Commission.
Braddon
Braddon covers north-west Tasmania and runs west from Devonport and down the west coast. The seat is unchanged by the redistribution. A table of results and a map are shown below.
| Two-Party % | First Preference % | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALP | LIB | ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | OTH | Electors | |
| From Braddon | 57.2 | 42.8 | 39.5 | 31.7 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 12.7 | 84,612 |
Bass
Bass is in the state’s north-east and is dominated by the city of Launceston. There is only a minor change to the boundaries of Bass with the transfer of Blackstone Heights and Prospect Vale from Lyons. Both are part of the built up area of Launceston, but by a quirk of local government boundary history, both lie in the rural Meander Valley local government area. This change has no impact on the margin of Bass as shown by the table of changes below. See the map below for more detail of the changes.
| Two-Party % | First Preference % | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALP | LIB | ALP | LIB | GRN | ONP | OTH | Electors | |
| Old Bass | 58.0 | 42.0 | 39.6 | 31.4 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 9.6 | 80,560 |
| From Lyons | 57.4 | 42.6 | 42.0 | 31.8 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 10.9 | 5,374 |
| New Bass | 58.0 | 42.0 | 39.8 | 31.5 | 12.7 | 6.4 | 9.6 | 85,934 |
Clark
Clark currently lies to the west of the Derwent and covers the Hobart and Glenorchy local government areas, and large parts of Kingborough council to the south. The new boundaries split the seat, northern Glenorchy transferred to the central seat of Lyons while all of Franklin west and south of the Derwent is transferred to Clark. The inclusion of the rural areas south from the Huon Valley along with the south-west wilderness area means Clark, previously always the state’s smallest electorate, is now vastly increased in area.
A map of the changed boundaries is shown below along with a complex table showing the party votes of the areas transferred in and out of the electorate.
On paper this has little impact on Labor’s two-party preferred margin in the seat. There is not much difference in major party vote based on 2025 results in the areas transferred in and out of the seat. But it is hard to be certain of this given Clark is currently held with a huge margin by Independent Andrew Wilkie.
Wilkie’s support is weaker in Glenorchy, the areas transferred to Lyons. He did not contest and has no vote in the areas transferred in from Franklin. It is possible to combine vote for Peter George from Franklin to calculate a new margin for Wilkie by combining the different Independent two-candidate votes from the two electorates.
By this measure, Wilkie’s margin declines from 20.4% to 9.2%, but I do not think this is a reliable estimate. Andrew Wilkie has held Clark/Denison since 2010 and is very well known with a much higher profile than Peter George. I feel certain Wilkie would have attracted a larger vote share than George in the areas added from Franklin. I might try and work out a different measure for Wilkie’s margin later this week.
| Party | Old Clark |
To Lyons |
Continuing Clark |
From Franklin |
New Clark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Party Preferred % | |||||
| Labor | 70.9 | 69.0 | 72.3 | 68.0 | 70.2 |
| Liberal | 29.1 | 31.0 | 27.7 | 32.0 | 29.8 |
| Two-Candidate Preferred % | |||||
| Labor | 29.6 | 34.2 | 26.0 | 56.4 | 40.8 |
| Andrew Wilkie | 70.4 | 65.8 | 74.0 | .. | 38.1 |
| Peter George | .. | .. | .. | 43.6 | 21.1 |
| Primary Vote % | |||||
| Labor | 20.0 | 23.9 | 17.0 | 36.8 | 26.6 |
| Liberal | 13.7 | 13.3 | 14.0 | 20.2 | 17.0 |
| Andrew Wilkie | 48.9 | 46.2 | 51.0 | .. | 26.2 |
| Peter George | .. | .. | .. | 22.7 | 11.0 |
| Greens | 13.2 | 11.0 | 14.9 | 11.0 | 13.0 |
| One Nation | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 5.7 | 4.4 |
| Others | .. | .. | .. | 3.7 | 1.8 |
| Electors | 74,450 | 33,369 | 41,080 | 39,430 | 80,510 |
Franklin
As explained above, all parts of Franklin west and south of the Derwent have been transferred to Clark. Into the electorates come the balance of Clarence City Council along with Brighton Council and the east coast Sorell, Tasman and Glamorgan Spring Bay Councils. A table showing estimated new percentage votes along with a map are shown below.
In two-party preferred terms there is a slight dip in Labor’s margin from 19.4% to 18.7%. In 2024 Labor won Franklin with a margin of 9.4% versus Independent Peter George. Given the major changes bringing in a vast part of Lyons not contested by George in 2025, it is not possible to calculate a margin. Nor does it make much sense given George now serves in state parliament.
| Party | Old Franklin |
To Clark |
Continuing Franklin |
From Lyons |
New Franklin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Party Preferred % | |||||
| Labor | 69.4 | 68.0 | 70.7 | 66.0 | 68.7 |
| Liberal | 31.3 | 32.0 | 29.3 | 34.0 | 31.3 |
| Two-Candidate Preferred % | |||||
| Labor | 57.8 | 56.4 | 59.0 | .. | .. |
| Peter George | 42.2 | 43.6 | 41.0 | .. | .. |
| Primary Vote % | |||||
| Labor | 39.0 | 36.8 | 41.0 | 46.6 | 43.4 |
| Liberal | 18.8 | 20.2 | 17.7 | 23.0 | 20.0 |
| Peter George | 21.7 | 22.7 | 20.8 | .. | 11.9 |
| Greens | 10.5 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 12.1 | 10.9 |
| One Nation | 5.0 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 4.9 |
| Others | 5.0 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 12.6 | 8.9 |
| Electors | 83,956 | 39,430 | 44,526 | 35,711 | 80,237 |
Lyons
The major changes to Clark and Franklin noted above see Lyons gain the City of Glenorchy from Clark, while the balance of Clarence City Council along with Brighton Council and the east coast councils of Sorell, Tasman and Glamorgan Spring Bay have been transferred to Franklin. The changes increase Labor’s margin in Lyons. Votes for Independent Andrew Wilkie are transferred in Lyons though the seat remains a two-party preferred contest.
| Party | Old Lyons |
To Franklin |
To Bass |
Continuing Lyons |
From Clark |
New Lyons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Party Preferred % | ||||||
| Labor | 61.6 | 66.0 | 57.4 | 58.8 | 69.0 | 63.0 |
| Liberal | 38.4 | 34.0 | 42.6 | 41.2 | 31.0 | 37.0 |
| Two-Candidate Preferred % | ||||||
| Labor | .. | .. | .. | .. | 34.2 | .. |
| Andrew Wilkie | .. | .. | .. | .. | 65.8 | .. |
| Primary Vote % | ||||||
| Labor | 43.1 | 46.6 | 42.0 | 40.6 | 23.9 | 33.7 |
| Liberal | 26.2 | 23.0 | 31.8 | 27.9 | 13.3 | 21.8 |
| Andrew Wilkie | .. | .. | .. | .. | 46.2 | 19.2 |
| Greens | 10.9 | 12.1 | 9.5 | 10.1 | 11.0 | 10.5 |
| One Nation | 6.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 6.8 |
| Others | 13.1 | 12.6 | 10.9 | 13.8 | .. | 8.0 |
| Electors | 84,225 | 35,711 | 5,374 | 48,514 | 33,369 | 81,883 |
Will the Boundaries Change in the Objections Phase
Anyone interested can lodge comments or objections to the proposed boundaries. Details at the Australian Electoral Commission’s website.
If good arguments can be put up for an alternate set of boundaries, the Redistribution Committee could dramatically re-do the boundaries. However, if changes at this stage are substantial, it is likely there would have be a new round of draft boundaries and a second period for comment.
What About State Elections?
Tasmania uses Federal boundaries as multi-member electorates for the lower house of state parliament. But the process is not automatic. State Parliament has to formally adopt the new boundaries for state elections.
The last redistribution was completed in November 2017. The new boundaries were not adopted in time for the March 2018 state election but were used at the May 2019 Federal election.
If the Tasmanian Parliament decided not to adopt these boundaries, it would have to introduce rules to draw a set of boundaries for state elections.
As is stated on the AEC’s Tasmanian redistribution site, “State electoral boundaries cannot be considered by Tasmania’s federal Redistribution Committee. While the Tasmanian State Parliament has historically amended the Tasmanian Constitution Act 1934 (Tas) to adopt federal boundaries for its House of Assembly, the decisions to apply or seek change is up to Tasmanian Parliament.”
Thanks, as always for the insights. Look forward to further comment on the George/Wilkie Independent vote, given the different Houses of Parliament – I think the highly personal approach taken by each accounts for their stunning votes and margins in each seat. If the changes go ahead, and if the State government adopts them, George’s vote will suffer with the loss of the Eastern shore voters, but find fresh support with the Hobart inclusion – if not vastly expand it, given how green Hobart is. It may well put George and the Greens in a competitive race while at the same time weakening support for the Liberals who are currently in Franklin (Abetz in particular). I can only see Wilkie’s vote improving, given his high personal reputation. In Tasmania, the closeness to our politicians is a big factor on voting.
Would Collinsvale remain in Clark or move to Lyons?
COMMENT: I believe Collinsville is in Glenorchy Council which means it goes to Lyons.
Very insightful observations, thanks Anthony!
I note your remark that Federal constituencies are so large it is difficult to get a single community of interest that covers an electorate. But even if a single community of interest is not possible, surely the objective is to minimise the number of different communities of interest (with potentially divergent interest) within the constituency?
On the proposed boundary, ‘Proposed Lyons’ would swallow a significant portion of suburban Hobart west of the River Derwent. Together with its overwhelmingly rural residual components, that gives the impression of Lyons being a residual mishmash afterthought from the Clark and Franklin redrawing. Seeking to conjoin significant parts of urban Hobart with a largely rural based Lyons seems a very odd choice. Minimising the number of different communities of interest (with potentially divergent interest) within the constituency it certainly does not do.
Turning to the psephological implications, I would appreciate your further observations on what the proposed boundary would mean for the status of Proposed Lyons as a battleground. In 2022 (and to some extent 2019), Lyons was a fairly closely fought battleground between LIB and ALP. Your helpful Primary and 2CP estimates for Proposed Lyons suggest the effect of the proposed changes is to transform what was previously (at least prior to 2025 election) a competitive Lyons into a very left-leaning Proposed Lyons. In your estimation, do the redistribution changes make Proposed Lyons no longer a LIB-ALP battleground? Such that under the draft boundary LIB-ALP battlegrounds in Tasmania would only realistically be Bass and Braddon?
Thank you, appreciate it.
COMMENT: In my description of Lyons in election guides I have always described it as “.. a seat of regions, best described as containing the parts of the state that didn’t logically fit into one of the other four electorates.” I think that is still the case. Labor had an unusually strong result in Tasmania in 2025 but Lyons in particular has become much safer due to the profile of new Labor MP Rebecca White.