May 2024

Proposed Federal Electoral Boundaries Released for Western Australia

The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) will release draft electoral boundaries for Western Australia on Friday, the time provisionally set for lunchtime AEST. Western Australia will be gaining a seat in the redistribution, the number of members to be elected at the next election increased from 15 to 16 seats.

Once the draft boundaries are released I’ll give a brief comment on the newly created seat, but it will take time and some serious number crunching to work out the full consequences of the new boundaries.

I’ve now double checked every discrepancy and my figures are final.

The major changes are that the new seat of Bullwinkel is a marginal Labor seat, Hasluck is made safer for Labor and Canning is made more marginal for the Liberal Party.

The new electorate is named in honour of Lieutenant Colonel Vivian Bullwinkel AO MBE ARRC ED FNM FRCNA (1915–2000), a civilian and military nurse who was the sole survivor of the 1942 Bangka Island massacre and a prisoner of war. The name recognises her dedication to honouring victims of war crimes, service to nursing, and the community, in both her civilian and military service. This electoral division name also honours the contribution of military medical personnel and recognises those who were prisoners of war.

The table below of seats held by party will be updated during my various parses of the data.

Change in Seats Held by Party
Labor Liberal Independent Total
Old boundaries 9 5 1 15
New boundaries 10 5 1 16

Based on the two-party preferred results, including the underlying Labor-Coalition nature of the Independent held seat of Curtin, the changes in two-party preferred holdings are –

  • Old Boundaries 2PP: Labor 9, Liberal 6
  • New Boundaries 2PP: Labor 10, Liberal 6

A seat table comparing margins can be found inside the post.Read More »Proposed Federal Electoral Boundaries Released for Western Australia

Proposed Federal Boundaries Released for Victoria

The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) will release draft electoral boundaries for Victoria today, the time set as some time between 12:30 and 2:30. Victoria will be losing a seat in the redistribution, the number of members to be elected reduced from 39 to 38 seats.

Once the draft boundaries are released I’ll give a brief comment on which seat has been abolished, but it will take time and some serious number crunching to work out the full consequences of the new boundaries.

Update 7pm Friday After fixing problems with a changed numbering system for SA1s, I’ve tidied all the estimates. The summary is that the Labor seat of Higgins is abolished but the Liberal seat of Menzies becomes a marginal Labor seat. The Liberal seat of Deakin is weakened for the Liberal Party and Wills is weakened for Labor in a contest versus the Greens.

The Greens versus Labor margin for Melbourne is not right but I don’t have time work out the problem tonight. A better estimated margin has now been calculated for Melbourne. Other independent contests now have better estimated margins.

** Sunday update on Kooyong The re-drawn seat of Kooyong includes around 30,000 voters from the abolished seat of Higgins. This is around a quarter of the voters in the re-drawn Kooyong. This is an area where Independent Monique Ryan was not on the ballot paper in 2022 and if you do a straight vote transfer and then apply preferences, you get an Independent v Liberal margin of 0.8%, down from 2.9%. This is not a realistic margin as clearly Monique Ryan will attract votes in the area added from Higgins.

Compared to the 2022 Liberal 2PP margin versus Labor, the new boundaries produces a slight dip in the Liberal margin versus Labor. I suspect that movement slightly improves Ryan’s margin versus the Liberal Party, but there is no way to calculate a margin without coming up with an estimate of how Ryan will poll in the transferred parts of Higgins where she was not on the ballot paper in 2022.

I’ve removed my earlier margin from the table below because it is being quoted as suggesting the Liberal position in Kooyong has been significantly improved. That is not my opinion.

** Sunday update on Goldstein I’ve removed the estimated Independent margin for Goldstein for the same reasons. Transferring votes and re-calculating preferences gives a new Independent v Liberal margin of 2.7%, down from 2.9% on the old boundaries. The changes to Goldstein are smaller than for Kooyong. The Liberal 2PP margin dips on the new boundaries and I think the same may apply to the Independent versus Liberal margin.

Change in Seat Numbers

The table below of seats held by party will be updated during my various parses of the data.

Change in Seats Held by Party
ALP LIB NAT GRN IND Total
Old boundaries 24 8 3 1 3 39
New boundaries 24 7 3 1 3 38
With by-elections 25 6 3 1 3 38

Note: By-election line takes account of Labor winning Aston from the Liberal Party at an April 2023 by-election. Table does not take account of the decision by Monash MHR Russell Broadbent to resign from the Liberal Party and become an Independent.

Based on the two-party preferred results, including the underlying Labor-Coalition nature of Independent and Greens held seat, the changes in two-party preferred holdings are –

  • Old Boundaries 2PP: Labor 25, Coalition 14 (Liberal 11, National 3)
  • New Boundaries 2PP: Labor 25, Coalition 13 (Liberal 10, National 3)
  • Including by-elections: Labor 26, Coalition 12 (Liberal 9, National 3)

Seat tables can be found inside the post.Read More »Proposed Federal Boundaries Released for Victoria

Why There Won’t be an Early Federal Election in 2024

Early election speculation is like some creature from an Eagles song. You can stab it with your steely knives but you just can’t kill the beast.

In the first half of 2023, when the Albanese government was ahead in all polls and looking assured in its control of the levers of power, talk of an early election in late 2024 was plausible.

Redistributions along with local, state and territory elections made timing difficult, but there were narrow windows for an early election either side of the Queensland election in October 2024.

But that window appears to have been firmly closed. The failed ‘Voice’ referendum, further rises in interest rates and growing cost of living pressures have damaged the government’s standing. The government has looked less assured in steering the ship of state.

Yet last week there were new stories emanating from Queensland about the Coalition’s need to be prepared for an election this year.

In my opinion the prospects for an election in late 2024 have evaporated.Read More »Why There Won’t be an Early Federal Election in 2024

2024 Northern Tablelands By-election

7 June – updated with the list of five nominated candidates.

In NSW the Minns government will face its first electoral test on June 22 at the Northern Tablelands by-election.

Or to be more correct, could have faced its first by-election test because Labor looks unlikely to nominate a candidate. (Confirmed – Labor has not nominated.) Based in the state’s rural north, Northern Tablelands is the Coalition’s safest seat, the Nationals polling a huge 83.8% of the two-party preferred at last year’s state election. At the 2011 election, the Labor vote was so low its candidate lost their deposit!

The only interest will be if an Independent candidate nominates, trying to tap into local Independent support that saw Richard Torbay win Northern Tablelands at four elections from 1999 to 2011 and helped Tony Windsor win the Federal seat of New England in the same period.

I’m publishing a profile of the by-election on my personal blog as I will be overseas for the by-election and not have access to the ABC website. I will try and update this page while overseas. I will not be providing result commentary on 22 June as I will be otherwise engaged in Budapest.

2024 Northern Tablelands By-election

Party Status: Very Very Safe National 33.8%

Date – Saturday 22 June 2024

The by-election has been caused by the retirement of National Party MLA Adam Marshall.

The by-election writ will be issued and rolls close on Friday 31 May. Nominations close Thursday 6 June with announcement of candidates and draw for ballot position on Friday 7 June. Postal vote application open Monday 20 May, Pre-Poll voting starts Saturday 15 June. Further information on the by-election can be found at the NSW Electoral Commission’s website.

Read More »2024 Northern Tablelands By-election