- Re-elected 1 – Marise Payne (Liberal)
- Re-elected 2 – Deborah O’Neill (Labor)
- Re-elected 3 – Ross Cadell (National)
- Re-elected 4 – Jenny McAllister (Labor)
- Elected 5 – David Shoebridge (Greens)
- Re-elected 6 – Jim Molan (Liberal)
Party Outcome: Labor (-1) Greens (+1). Within the Coalition ticket, the Nationals recover the seat lost to the Liberal Party during the 2017 citizenship drama.
A full table of first preference votes allocated to ticket votes and to individual candidates is included in the post. Some analysis of the preference flows will be included once the preference distribution report is released later today.
Read More »2022 New South Wales Senate Election
- Re-elected 1 – Sarah Henderson (Liberal)
- Elected 2 – Linda White (Labor)
- Re-elected 3 – Bridget McKenzie (National)
- Re-elected 4 – Jana Stewart (Labor)
- Re-elected 5 – Lidia Thorpe (Greens)
- Elected 6 – Ralph Babet (United Australia Party)
- Defeated – Greg Mirabella (Liberal)
Party Outcome: Coalition (-1), United Australia Party (+1).
A table of final first preferences is included inside this post along with an analysis of the distribution of preferences sheets.
Read More »2022 Victorian Senate Election
- Re-elected 1 – James McGrath (LNP)
- Re-elected 2 – Murray Watt (Labor)
- Re-elected 3 – Matt Canavan (LNP)
- Elected 4 – Penny Allman-Payne (Greens)
- Re-elected 5 – Pauline Hanson (One Nation)
- Re-elected 6 – Anthony Chisholm (Labor)
- Defeated – Amanda Stoker (LNP)
Party Summary: Greens (+1), LNP (-1).
A full table of first preference votes is included in the post as well as an analysis of the preference flows.
The critical point in the count was the exclusion of Clive Palmer (UAP). More than half of his preferences flowed to Pauline Hanson (ONP), allowing Hanson to open a wide lead over Amanda Stoker (LNP) in the contest for the third conservative seat.
Read More »2022 Queensland Senate Election
- Re-elected 1 – Sue Lines (Labor)
- Re-elected 2 – Michaelia Cash (Liberal)
- Re-elected 3 – Glenn Sterle (Labor)
- Re-elected 4 – Dean Smith (Liberal)
- Re-elected 5 – Dorinda Cox (Greens)
- Elected 6 – Fatima Payman (Labor)
- Defeated – Ben Small (Liberal) – see notes below
Party Outcome: Probably Liberal (-1), Labor (+1)
All votes have now been counted and allocated as first preferences to ticket votes or to individual candidates. A table of these votes is included min the post along with an analysis of the final distribution of preferences that elected Fatima Payman (Labor) to the final vacancy ahead of Paul Filing (One Nation).
In brief, Liberal preferences on the exclusion of the third Liberal candidate determined the outcome. On first preferences, Labor’s third candidate Fatima Payman was on 0.42 quotas to One Nation’s Paul Filing on 0.24. By the time only three candidates were left, the lead had narrowed with Payman on 0.72 and Filing on 0.61, 155,170 votes to 133,111 with the third Liberal Ben Small to be excluded with 99,327 votes. Small’s preferences split 31.0% to Payman, 29.6% to Filing and 39.4% exhausting. The final totals were Payman 185,992 or 0.8531 quotas to Filing 162,502 or 0.7454 quotas.
- Re-elected 1 – Simon Birmingham (Liberal)
- Re-elected 2 – Penny Wong (Labor)
- Re-elected 3 – Andrew McLachlan (Liberal)
- Re-elected 4 – Don Farrell (Labor)
- Elected 5 – Barbara Pocock (Greens)
- Elected 6 – Kerrynne Liddle (Liberal)
- Defeated – Stirling Griff (Centre Alliance)
- Defeated – Rex Patrick (Rex Patrick Team)
Party Summary: Ex-Nick Xenophon Team Senators Rex Patrick and Stirling Griff have been defeated (-2), replaced by Greens (+1) and Liberal (+1).
Post includes analysis of the preference flows that determined who won the final seat.
Read More »2022 South Australian Senate Election
- Re-elected 1 – Jonno Duniam (Liberal)
- Re-elected 2 – Anne Urquhart (Labor)
- Re-elected 3 – Peter Whish-Wilson (Greens)
- Re-elected 4 – Helen Polley (Labor)
- Re-elected 5 – Wendy Askew (Liberal)
- Elected 6 – Tammy Tyrrell (Jacqui Lambie Newtwork)
- Defeated – Eric Abetz (Liberal)
Party Summary: Liberal (-1), Jacqui Lambie Network (+1)
- Re-elected 1 – Katy Gallagher (Labor)
- Elected 2 – David Pocock (Independent)
- Defeated – Zed Seselja (Liberal)
Party Outcome: Liberal (-1), Independent (+1)
The final first preferences table and a summary of the preferences distributions are published inside the post.
David Pocock trailed on first preferences, but with the Liberal Party having polled only three-quarters of a quota, Pocock was easily able to overtake Zed Seselja and win on preferences. Overall Pocock received around 72.5% of preferences while Zed Seselja received only 18.9% with 8.6% exhausted. Seselja finished with 0.86 quotas while Pocock was elected with 1.09 quotas.
Read More »2022 ACT Senate Election
- Re-elected 1 – Malarndirri McCarthy (Labor)
- Elected 2 – Jacinta Nampijinpa Price (Country Liberal)
- Defeated – Sam McMahon (Liberal Democrats, ex-CLP)
Party Outcome: No change
Final tables and a summary of the preferences distribution are published inside the post.
Read More »2022 NT Senate Election
So the 2022 Australian federal election will be held on Saturday 21 May. That’s three years to the weekend since the last election.
The wild theories that the Prime Minister would delay the House election until later in the year proved to be, as expected, completely wrong.
The relevant dates for the election are:
Dissolution and Issue of Writs – tomorrow, Monday 11 April
Close of Rolls – Monday 18 April. This is Easter Monday so the Easter break will complicate people trying to enrol or update their details. You can find the AEC’s new enrolment page here, and update enrolment form here.
Close of Nominations – Thursday 21 April. Ballot draw and release of nominations will be on Friday 22 April. Postal votes will not be sent to voters until after the close of nominations, which means after the Anzac Day weekend.
Postal Vote Applications – Can be applied for now through the AEC website. You must apply for a postal vote by Wednesday 18 May, but you are better applying well before the close of application date if you hope to receive your postal vote pack before polling day.
Pre-poll-Voting begins – Monday 9 May. Note that the Electoral Act has been changed since 2019 to shorten pre-poll voting to two weeks instead of three.
Polling Day – Saturday 21 May.
The election period is six weeks instead of the usual five. This means there are four weeks between close of nominations and polling day. With pre-poll voting now limited to two weeks, people cannot vote in person until four weeks into the election campaign.
However, it is likely that political parties will flood the electorate with postal vote applications in the two weeks before pre-poll starts encourage people to vote by post. Read my notes on postal voting inside this port.
Inside the post I also include links to my background material on the 2022 Federal election at the ABC election website.
Read More »2022 Federal Election Date Named plus links to my Election Guide