(20 November – the tables in this post have been updated taking account of the final boundaries and incorporating split and merged SA1s. The complex way that final descriptions are released has made it difficult for me to update the transfers listed in the table but the margins have been updated.)
(Updated Friday 6 September with maps and more details on Chisholm, Deakin, Goldstein, Kooyong, Melbourne, Menzies and Wills. Estimated margins for Independent contests will be added later today..)
On Thursday 5 September the Redistribution Committee for Victoria released the fin al version of the state’s new Federal electoral boundaries. Draft boundaries were released in May and opened for public comment. This final version will be formally gazetted later this month and used for the first time at next year’s Federal election.
The redistribution has taken place to decrease the number of Victorian federal divisions from 39 to 38. The final boundaries have confirmed the abolition of the Labor seat of seat of Higgins in inner-eastern Melbourne.
Today’s release has included a string of minor adjustments to the draft boundaries, none of which appear significant to me. The release does not include the datafiles that permit new margins to be calculated. I won’t update the margins shown inside this post until the datafiles are released.
Re-calculating margins is a complex task of processing AEC polling place data files on where people voted in 2022 and comparing them with Bureau of Statistics files listing the low level SA1 (Statistical Area 1) composition of new electorates. Complicating the process is a re-numbering of many SA1s between the 2016 and 2021 Censuses. The 2022 AEC files used the old SA1 identifiers and the new electorate files use the new SA1 identifier. This has required a lot of fiddling with data to resolve inconsistencies between SA1 identifiers.
In my analysis of the draft boundaries in May I had to manually resolve these problems. I’ve managed to code the corrections this time though there are still a few inconsistencies that can’t be resolved by me. A number of the margins in this post have altered since May using the better correction method. The AEC will eventually release their own versions of new margins in the new year and they have a lot more resources than me to resolve SA1 inconsistencies and splits.
What this post does not yet do is take into account the adjustments in the final release of boundaries. I can’t do these calculations until the AEC release the maps and data files.
I have also not added estimated margins for a couple of Independent seats. That requires some manual re-calculations that I will do later today.
Change in Seat Numbers
| ALP | LIB | NAT | GRN | IND | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Old boundaries | 24 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 39 |
| New boundaries | 24 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 38 |
| With by-elections | 25 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 38 |
Note: By-election line takes account of Labor winning Aston from the Liberal Party at an April 2023 by-election. Table does not take account of the decision by Monash MHR Russell Broadbent to resign from the Liberal Party and become an Independent.
Based on the two-party preferred results, including the underlying Labor-Coalition nature of Independent and Greens held seat, the changes in two-party preferred holdings are –
- Old Boundaries 2PP: Labor 25, Coalition 14 (Liberal 11, National 3)
- New Boundaries 2PP: Labor 25, Coalition 13 (Liberal 10, National 3)
- Including by-elections: Labor 26, Coalition 12 (Liberal 9, National 3)
The main political implications of the changes are –
- The Labor seat of Higgins is abolished.
- Labor’s position in Wills is significantly weakened with the inclusion of strong Greens voting areas around Brunswick East, Carlton North and Fitzroy North. The Labor margin versus the Greens is reduced from 8.6% to an estimated 4.6%.
- The transfer of strong Labor voting areas to Menzies, replaced by marginal Liberal country from Higgins and Kooyong, weakens Labor’s position in Chisholm, an estimated halving of the Labor margin from 6.4% to 3.2%.
- The Liberal marginal seats of Deakin and Menzies in eastern Melbourne become even more marginal with Menzies flipping to become a notional Labor seat.
- The strongest Liberal voting parts of Higgins have been transferred to Kooyong, held by Independent MP Dr Monique Ryan. Estimating support for an Independent in areas they did not contest at the last election, but my best estimate is that Ryan’s margin is reduced from 2.9% to 1.8%.
- The boundary changes for Goldstein are estimated to increase the margin of Independent Zoe Daniel from 2.9% to 3.1%.
None of the estimates in this post take account of the changes announced with the release of the final boundaries. I do not believe that any of the final changes have much impact on marginal seats.
Seat tables can be found inside the post.
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: LIB 2.8% ALP 3.6% (by) |
MP: Mary Doyle (Labor) New boundaries transfer around 10,000 voters in Bayswater and Ringwood from Deakin to Aston. Aston was gained by Labor’s Mary Doyle at an April 2023 by-election. Her margin was 3.6% but it is not possible to calculate a new margin based on by-election figures. There is only a slight weakening of Labor’s margin based on 2022 election results. |
| New: LIB 2.6% ALP 3.6% (by) |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 13.0% | MP: Catherine King (Labor) The minor changes proposed were reversed at the final stage. |
| New: ALP 13.0% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
Old: ALP 12.1%| MP: Lisa Chesters (Labor) |
Relatively minor changes with neighbouring Nicholls. |
| New: ALP 11.1% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 6.6% | MP: Julian Hill (Labor) Loses part of Dandenong to Isaacs, gains Cranbourne North from Holt and part of Berwick from La Trobe. |
| New: ALP 5.3% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 12.4% | MP: Maria Vamvakinou (Labor) The eastern boundary of the electorate moves west from Merri Creek to the Hume Highway with the loss in total of around 6,000 voters to McEwen and Scullin. |
| New: ALP 12.4% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: LIB 1.5% | MP: Aaron Violi (Liberal) Around 4,000 voters are added in the west with St Andrews transferred from McEwen and Wonga Park from Menzies. |
| New: LIB 1.4% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 6.4% | MP: Carina Garland (Labor) See notes and map below |
| New: ALP 3.3% |
Undergoes major boundary changes in becoming an east-west aligned electorate. Loses areas north of Eley Road to Menzies and south of the Monash Freeway to Hotham. Moves west of Warrigal Road in gaining parts of Camberwell, Glen Iris, Malvern and Ashburton from Higgins and Kooyong.
The areas that remain in Chisholm recrded a Labor 2PP% of 55.6% in 2022. The areas added from Higgins recorded 49.6%, from Kooyong 46.1%, the areas transferred to Deakin and Hotham voted 56.5% and the 18,500 voters moved to Menzies voted 60.3% Labor. Taken together these reduce the Labor margin from 6.4% to 3.2%.
The new boundaries in the map below have not been corrected for the minor changes made at the final stage of the redistribution. The map will be corrected when my ABC election guide is published. A final boundaries can also be found on the AEC website.
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 8.7% v GRN ALP 25.6% 2PP |
MP: Ged Kearney (Labor) Gains around 5,000 voters in Clifton Hill from Melbourne. This area recorded a Greens 2CP result versus Labor of 60.0% in 2022 which explains the decline in the Labor margin on the new boundaries. |
| New: ALP 7.8% v GRN ALP 25.7% 2PP |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 7.6% | MP: Libby Coker (Labor) Shrinks in area, losing around 5,500 voters around Bannockburn to Corio and 4,300 further south to Wannon. |
| New: ALP 7.9% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 12.8% | MP: Richard Marles (Labor) Gains around 5,500 voters around Bannockburn from Corio, around 300 from Ballarat, and 640 voters in Wyndham from Lalor. |
| New: ALP 12.5% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: LIB 0.2% | MP: Michael Sukkar (Liberal) See notes and map below. |
| New: LIB 0.02% |
In the south loses around 10,000 voters between Canterbury Road and Dandenong Creek to Aston. Gains around 20,000 voters in an arc from Blackburn North to Ringwood North from Menzies and a small part of Burwood east from Chisholm. This make an already marginal Liberal seat even more marginal.
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 6.3% ALP 2.7% (by) |
MP: Jodi Belyea (Labor) Loses parts of Mount Eliza in the south to Flinders, shifts north gaining Carrum, Patterson lakes, Bonbeach and parts of Chelsea from Isaacs. |
| New: ALP 6.8% ALP 2.7% (by) |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: LIB 6.7% | MP: Zoe McKenzie (Liberal) Gains parts of Mount Eliza from Dunkley. |
| New: LIB 6.2% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 16.5% | MP: Daniel Mulino (Labor) On its southern border gains around 9,000 voters in Brooklyn, Spotswood and Williams Landing from Gellibrand. |
| New: ALP 16.6% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 11.5% | MP: Tim Watts (Labor) Loses parts of Brooklyn, Spotswood and Yarraville in the north to Fraser. Gains parts of Truganina, Williams Landing and Point Cook in the west from Lalor. |
| New: ALP 11.2% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: NAT 20.6% | MP: Darren Chester (National) No boundary changes. |
| New: NAT 20.6% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: IND 2.9% v LIB LIB 4.8% 2PP |
MP: Zoe Daniel (Independent) See map and notes below. |
| New: IND 3.1 v LIB LIB 3.7% 2PP |
Gains part of Bentleigh East from Hotham, and parts of Moorabbin and Highett from Isaacs. The areas added increase the Labor and Green vote in Goldstein. If you calculate a notional Independent vote for Daniel based on the ratio of Labor and Green House and Senate vote in Goldstein, then the estimated margin after preferences for Daniel versus the Liberal Party increases from 2.9% to 3.1%.
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 10.0% | MP: Brendan O’Connor (Labor) Very minor change involving around 100 voters. |
| New: ALP 10.0% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 7.6% | MP: Sam Rae (Labor) Very minor changes with the addition of around 200 voters. |
| New: ALP 7.6% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 2.1% | MP: Michelle Ananda-Rajah (Labor) Abolished. South Yarra and parts of Prahran transferred to Melbourne, Windsor to Macnamara, Toorak, Malvern, Armadale and the rest of Prahran to Kooyong, Glen Iris, Ashburton to Chisholm, and Carnegie and Ormond to Hotham. |
| New: Abolished |
Parts of Higgins have been transferred to five other electorates. The proportion of voters transferred and the two-party preferred in each area is –
- 29.9% of voters transferred to Chisholm, Labor 2PP 49.6%
- 21.3% of voters transferred to Hotham, Labor 2PP 56.2%
- 27.3% of voters transferred to Kooyong, Labor 2PP 47.7%
- 4.5% of voters transferred to Macnamara, Labor 2PP 60.7%
- 17.0% of voters transferred to Melbourne, Labor 2PP 56.7%
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 7.1% | MP: Cassandra Fernando (Labor) Loses around 7,000 voters in Cranbourne North to Bruce. |
| New: ALP 7.1% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 14.3% | MP: Clare O’Neil (Labor) Shifts north, losing solid Labor voting territory south of Heatherton Road to Isaacs, and gaining areas north to the Monash Freeway from Chisholm and Higgins. |
| New: ALP 11.6% |
The areas transferred to Isaacs voted 66.9% Labor in 2022, while the replacement areas from Chisholm and Higgins voted only 56.5% which explains the decline in the Labor margin.
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: IND 8.9% v LIB LIB 5.3% 2PP |
MP: Helen Haines (Independent) No boundary changes. |
| New: IND 8.9% v LIB LIB 5.3% 2PP |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 6.9% | MP: Mark Dreyfus (Labor) Loses parts of Moorabbin and Highett to Goldstein, Carrum, Patterson Lakes, Bonbeach and parts of Chelsea to Dunkley, gains Keysborough, Springvale South and parts of Noble park from Hotham. |
| New: ALP 9.5% |
The Labor margin for Isaacs is boosted by the inclusion of 28,000 voters in areas where Labor’s 2PP% in 2022 was 66.9%.
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 12.3% | MP: Kate Thwaites (Labor) Loses part of Bundoora to Scullin. Gains North Warrandyte from Menzies. |
| New: ALP 12.2% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: IND 2.9% v LIB LIB 4.2% 2PP |
MP: Monique Ryan (Independent) See notes and map below. |
| New: IND 2.2% v LIB LIB 3.7% 2PP |
In the east loses parts of Balwyn North, Box Hill North, Mont Albert and Surrey Hills to Menzies, and Camberwell and Glen Iris to Chisholm. Gains Toorak, Malvern, Armadale and part of Prahran from Higgins.
The areas transferred to Chisholm were stronger for Monique Ryan recording 53.5% of the two-candidate preferred vote. The areas transferred to Menzies were weaker at 52.4%, while the areas remaining in Kooyong voted Ryan 53.0% 2CP. The areas transferred to Kooyong from Higgins were the strongest part of the electorate for the Liberal Party and weaker for Labor and the Greens. The area was of course not contested by Ryan, which means it is difficult to estimate an Independent margin for the re-drawn Kooyong.
As in Goldstein, the method I’ve used is to apply a ratio of Kooyong House to Senate Labor and Green vote to reduce the Labor and Green vote transferred from Higgins, and instead allocate it as possible first preference votes for Ryan. Using this method, I estimate that Ryan’s margin for the new Kooyong is reduced to 1.8%. Of course, at the next election she may also take some votes from the Liberal Party, but it would be guesswork to create a desertion factor for Liberal support in the area transferred from Higgins.
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: LIB 8.7% | MP: Jason Wood (Liberal) Loses around 8,000 voters around Berwick to Bruce. |
| New: LIB 8.4% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 12.8% | MP: Joanne Ryan (Labor) Loses around 10,000 voters in parts of Truganina, Williams Landoing and Point Cook to Gellibrand in the east. Loses a thinly populated area between Werribee and Little River to Corio. |
| New: ALP 12.8% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 12.2% | MP: Josh Burns (Labor)) Gains Windsor from Higgins. Loses South Yarra west of Punt Road to Melbourne. Macnamara could be a three-way contest between Labor, Liberal and Greens in 2025. The redistribution makes little difference to the first preference share of each party. |
| New: ALP 12.2% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: NAT 19.0% | MP: Anne Webster (National) Boundaries unchanged. |
| New: NAT 19.0% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 12.4% | MP: Bill Shorten (Labor) Gains around 9,000 voters east of Moonee Ponds Creek to Wills, mainly in Glenroy and Oak Park. Loses Melbourne Airport to Hawke. |
| New: ALP 13. 0% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 3.3% | MP: Rob Mitchell (Labor) Loses 7,400 voters in Kilmore to Nicholls. Other minor boundary changes with neighbouring Calwell, Scullin and Casey. (Some of these changes were changed at the final stage of the redistribution.) |
| New: ALP 3.9% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: GRN 10.2% v ALP ALP 27.9% 2PP |
MP: Adam Bandt (Greens) See notes and map below. |
| New: GRN 6.5% v ALP ALP 23.1% 2PP |
In the north loses Clifton Hill to Cooper and Brunswick East, Carlton North and Fitzroy North to Wills. Crosses the Yarra to take in South Yarra and Prahran from Macnamara and Higgins.
The Green margin declines versus Labor because strong Green voting areas in the north of the old Melbourne have been replaced by parts of Higgins where the Liberal vote was higher in 2022. On primary votes the Green vote slips from 49.6% to 44.7%, the Labor vote rises from 25.0% to 25.7%, and the Liberal vote rises from 15.2% to 19.6%. It is possible that with Adam Bandt as the candidate, and a less intense local campiagn by Labor in areas previously in Higgins, could help restore Bandt’s margin.
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: LIB 0.7% | MP: Keith Wolahan (Liberal) See notes and map below. |
| New: ALP 0.4% |
Shifts west and south. Loses Wonga Park to Casey, North Warrandyte to Jagajaga and around 20,000 voters between Blackburn North and Ringwood North to Deakin. Into the electorate from Kooying and Chisholm come 32,000 voters in Balwyn North, Mont Albert, Surrey Hills, Box Hill and Blackburn. The changes are enough to turn this marginal Liberal seat into a notional Labor seat.
It is the addition of voters from Chisholm that is the main cause of Menzies flipping party. At the 2022 election the area recorded a Labor two-party preferred of 60.3%.
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: LIB 2.9% | MP: Russell Broadbent (IND/ex-Liberal) No boundary changes. |
| New: LIB 2.9% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: NAT 3.8% v IND NAT 17.1% 2PP |
MP: Sam Birrell (National) Gains around 7,400 voters in Kilmore from McEwen and loses about 900 voters to Bendigo. |
| New: NAT 3.4% v IND NAT 15.8% 2PP |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 15.6% | MP: Andrew Giles (Labor) Loses around 2,000 voters in Bundoora to Jagajaga, gains an extra 3,000 voters in Mernda froim McEwen and and around 2,500 in Campbellfield and Somerton from Calwell. No change to the Labor margin. |
| New: ALP 15.4% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: LIB 3.9% v IND LIB 9.1% 2PP |
MP: Dan Tehan (Liberal) Gains around 4,300 voters around Golden Plains, Torquay and Winchelsea from Corangamite. |
| New: LIB 3.8% v IND LIB 8.6% 2PP |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 8.6% v GRN ALP 25.8% 2PP |
MP: Peter Khalil (Labor) See notes and map below. |
| New: ALP 4.6% v GRN ALP 27.1% 2PP |
The electorate shifts south, losing around 9,000 northern voters mainly in parts of Glenroy and Oak Park to Maribyrnong, while gaining around 20,000 southern voters in parts of Brunswick East, Carlton North and Fitzroy North from Melbourne.
Wills voted 58.6% Labor two-candidate preferred in 2022. The areas that have been transferred to Maribyrnong voted 65.1% Labor, the areas that remain in Wills voted 58.0% Labor, but the areas added from Melbourne recorded a Green majority in 2022, Labor’s vote afer preferences only 37.2%. It this this shift that cuts the Labor margin from 8.6% to 4.6%.
Liberal Party have been ripped off. All bar 2 of their seats negatively impacted. How is this fair or equitable?
COMMENT: The boundaries are drawn to create rough equality of enrolment. They are not drawn based on party political considerations. The problem for the Liberal Party in the Victorian redistribution was that most of its seats are in eastern Melbourne where there is a relative decline in population and enrolment. The inner-eastern Labor seat of Higgins has been abolished and the consequent adjustments of enrolment have created problems for Liberal seats further east.
All of these calculations are based on the result of the last election and the Liberal Party should have no trouble holding its own seats if the party’s vote increases at the next election.
whilst i agree they have very few seats to begin with so they are on a low starting point and should have no problem holding all these at the next 2 elections. they will probably win Aston back now and seats like McEwen, Chisholm, Bruce are winnable. the real issue isnt it being fair and equitable its the weird shapes of the new divisions abolishing higgins and crossing the yarra at southbank was the worst idea ever they should have a bolished a seat like Jagajaga or Menzies and done the crossing up that way
COMMENT: It strikes me the Redistribution Committees have become hooked on minimising the number of voters that change seats in redistributions. Past practice suggests crossing the upper rather than the lower Yarra is more normal practice, but I suspect on current enrolments this would have caused more voters to change seat. Current boundaries are one the critieria for drawing boundaries so minimising change is allowed.
@COMMENT yea the problem with that is in WA they went out of their way to move voters they could have left o’Connor and Forrest unchanged and created the new seat in perths east. removing the remainder of swan from durack instead as i showed in my own proosal
Antony is that a legal requirement re minimising the numbers of voters changing seats or a policy the committee imposed on itself?
I know some States in the US do but the UK doest’t.
It seems to me that such a legal requirement or policy can be an impediment to drawing boundaries.
COMMENT: Beyond the strict legislative quota requirements, the Committee’s can consider –
* community interests within the proposed electoral division, including economic, social and regional interests
* means of communication and travel within the proposed electoral division
* physical features and area of the proposed electoral division, and
* existing boundaries of divisions in the state or territory.
Minimising the number of voters shifting seats effectively gives weight the fourth point about existing boundaries. Traditionally in Victoria, seats haven’t crossed the lower course of the Yarra River. By crossing the Yarra where they have, putting parts of Higgins into Melbourne, the Committee has concentrated changes to the strip of seats along the southern bank of the Yarra and caused almost no change to the north and west. Had they followed a traditional path and crossed the Yarra in its upper reaches, there would have been greater change north and west of the Yarra and more electors moved between seats.
Sometimes Commissioners have made changes that ignored existing boundaries but produced boundaries that would make more sense into the future. The seat of O’Connor in WA used to wrap around the state’s south west corner and ran from Geraldton through the wheatbelt to Albany. To the east Kalgoorlie took up the bulk of the state. But every redistribution required Kalgoorlie to grow and it was becoming also impossible keep O’Connor in its then existing alignment.
Before the 2010 election, a redistribution abolished Kalgoorlie. A new seat called Durack was created than ran from the wheatbelt north of Perth into the state’s northern mining and pastoral region. O’Connor was re-aligned to run from Albany and the wheatbelt east to the state border. This alignment could be maintained into the future without major problems.
WA had only 15 seats then and drawing such new boundaries was possible without too much difficulty. I think the Victorian Commissioners might have gone for the minimal change option so the boundaries could be completed in time.
One of the overlooked issues with the switch to May elections since 2016 is that redistributions can’t be completed until after the 12 month window opens for the next election. Currently the apportionment of seats is not done until 12 months after the first sitting of each new parliament. I think this should be brought forward to six months so there is enough time to complete any change of seat numbers redistribution.
Hi Antony – loosely connected but do you think that Shorten’s February retirement date points to a possible March election?
COMMENT: No.
no hes reitirng in february because thats when the academic year starts. Assuming the election isnt called before then the seat of Maribyrnong would just be left vacant as there would not be needing a by election due to the election being so close because by the time a by election were held the election would most likely be called and therefore parliament dissolved anyway.
Splendid to see (yet again) the Committee makes no effort or care to fix the monstrosity that is McEwen. How anyone can proclaim that there is a ‘community of interests’ between Macedon, Romsey, Wallan and Hurstbridge is having a laugh (only it’s not funny because the poor constituents are left with an MP that cannot possibly represent their diverse and increasingly divergent interests as periurban and regional areas like Hurstbridge, Romsey and Macedon are vastly different from housing estates and built up areas like Wallan). There aren’t even any roads or railway lines linking the Division east-west!
Hawke is at risk of something similar and what has been done to Menzies by bringing high-rise towers Box Hill into the same division as periurban Warrandyte is just derisible.
Also quite ridiculous how the Committee could think that Southbank isn’t a part of the Melbourne community of interests, while supposedly in its mind South Yarra is???
AEC also published inaccurate and misleading projected enrolment numbers so submissions were vitiated and made meaningless. Dreadfully run process.
All-up, I can’t escape the feeling that Committee has just cancelled Higgins, jiggled with all the Division boundaries at the margins to make everything fit within the quotas and called it a day without any sincere consideration of slicing up or smashing together communities of interests or whether each Division is internally cohesive and shares a unifying identity or character.
On a brighter note – well done Mr Green, your analysis is as enlightening and insightful as ever. I especially appreciate the maps and the estimated margins.
Boundaries are based on equality of enrolment numbers and amongst other issues.. community of Interest. Sa state examples show you can’t legislate single member electorates based on fairness
It is a fact that every state and federal entity can change government. Which suggests to me there is no inate gerrymander in effect
Why hasn’t NSW realeased there final boundaries for redistribution
COMMENT: The draft was released a week after WA and Victoria and the final version will also be released a week later.
The boundary for Chisholm needs to be corrected. You have shown the draft boundary here. Please check the media release by the AEC. https://www.aec.gov.au/media/2024/09-05b.htm In the final boundary, the locality of Malvern East is now united in Chisholm, while a portion of the locality of Mulgrave (located to the north of the Monash Freeway) and a portion of the locality of Wheelers Hill (bounded by Ferntree Gully Road and Lum Road) have been transferred to Hotham.
COMMENT: The the post is based on the draft boundary files released by the AEC. At this stage the AEC has released the final determination but not of the associated data. I will change the map when the AEC publishes the boundary files, presumably some time in the next month.
I must admit I am surprised to see the Liberal margin in Deakin fall when Park Orchards and Ringwood North are added….
@mark mulcair if it takes in territory that is less friendly then the avg of the rest of the division or indeed labor territory it will fall. just as in Brand in WA it loses Labor territory but because that territory is less friendly then the avg of the Division it increases the margin