Proposed Federal Electoral Boundaries Released for Western Australia

The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) will release draft electoral boundaries for Western Australia on Friday, the time provisionally set for lunchtime AEST. Western Australia will be gaining a seat in the redistribution, the number of members to be elected at the next election increased from 15 to 16 seats.

Once the draft boundaries are released I’ll give a brief comment on the newly created seat, but it will take time and some serious number crunching to work out the full consequences of the new boundaries.

I’ve now double checked every discrepancy and my figures are final.

The major changes are that the new seat of Bullwinkel is a marginal Labor seat, Hasluck is made safer for Labor and Canning is made more marginal for the Liberal Party.

The new electorate is named in honour of Lieutenant Colonel Vivian Bullwinkel AO MBE ARRC ED FNM FRCNA (1915–2000), a civilian and military nurse who was the sole survivor of the 1942 Bangka Island massacre and a prisoner of war. The name recognises her dedication to honouring victims of war crimes, service to nursing, and the community, in both her civilian and military service. This electoral division name also honours the contribution of military medical personnel and recognises those who were prisoners of war.

The table below of seats held by party will be updated during my various parses of the data.

Change in Seats Held by Party
Labor Liberal Independent Total
Old boundaries 9 5 1 15
New boundaries 10 5 1 16

Based on the two-party preferred results, including the underlying Labor-Coalition nature of the Independent held seat of Curtin, the changes in two-party preferred holdings are –

  • Old Boundaries 2PP: Labor 9, Liberal 6
  • New Boundaries 2PP: Labor 10, Liberal 6

A seat table comparing margins can be found inside the post.

Summary of Federal Redistribution in Western Australia
Division Old Margin New Margin Change Member
Brand ALP 16.7% ALP 17.0% 0.3% to ALP Madeleine King (Labor)
Bullwinkle new seat ALP 3.2% .. New seat
Burt ALP 15.2% ALP 13.1% 2.2% to L/NP Matt Keogh (Labor)
Canning LIB 3.6% LIB 1.2% 2.4% to ALP Andrew Hastie (Liberal)
Cowan ALP 10.8% ALP 10.7% 0.1% to L/NP Anne Aly (Labor)
Curtin LIB 5.6% 2PP
IND 1.3% v LIB
LIB 5.6% 2PP
IND 1.3% v LIB
.. Kate Chaney (Independent)
Durack LIB 4.3% LIB 4.6% 0.4% to L/NP Melissa (Liberal)
Forrest LIB 4.3% LIB 4.2% 0.1% to ALP Nola Marino (Liberal)
Fremantle ALP 16.9% ALP 16.8% 0.1% to L/NP Josh Wilson (Labor)
Hasluck ALP 6.0% ALP 10.0% 4.0% to ALP Tania Lawrence (Labor)
Moore LIB 0.7% LIB 0.9% 0.2% to L/NP Ian Goodenough (Liberal)
O’Connor LIB 7.0% LIB 6.7% 0.3% to ALP Rick Wilson (Liberal)
Pearce ALP 9.0% ALP 8.4% 0.6% to L/NP Tracey Roberts (Labor)
Perth ALP 14.8% ALP 14.4% 0.4% to L/NP Patrick Gorman (Labor)
Swan ALP 8.8% ALP 9.3% 0.5% to ALP Zaneta Mascarenhas (Labor)
Tangney ALP 2.4% ALP 2.9% 0.5% to ALP Sam Lim (Labor)

4 thoughts on “Proposed Federal Electoral Boundaries Released for Western Australia”

  1. can we see what the boundaries look like against the 2019 numbers? with a correction in the WA vote on the cards it would be interesting to compare the two

    COMMENT: You can, if you do the calculations yourself. I certainly don’t have time to do it before I leave the country on Monday.

  2. The new boundaries are interesting.

    “Old Margin” can be a little misleading as you won’t have COVID-19/McGowan wave that swept through WA in 2022, for 2025.

    It will be interesting to see how to swing sweats:
    Swan, Hasluck and Pearce go for 2025, previously held by the Liberals.

    Tangney is going to be crazy.
    The Liberals have decided to not mess around and actually put someone decent for a change, to contest that seat.
    16.5% ethnically Chinese is not a joke, but I am not convinced Dutton will be more popular than Morrison.

    COMMENT: Old margin is the result of the 2022 election. So is the New margin, which is a re-calculation of the 2022 results. If you are saying the 2022 Federal result in WA was unusual, there is no one who would disagree with your view. But it remains the starting point for assessing results for the next election.

  3. my opinion is taking into account th 6% swing the poll. Tangey, Curtin and the new seat will be liberal gains. Swan, Hasluck, Pearce and Cowan will be marginal going into the election and the rest will end up being marginal. expect to see a strong swing towards Hastie in Canning, and the remainin coalition to strengthen for the libs

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