September 2024

ACT 2024 – Candidates and Parties Contesting Election

(Update – my ACT Election guide for the ABC has had a soft launch. You can access it at this link. There’s a little more work to be done on the page linking.

A total of 149 candidates have nominated to contest the 2024 ACT election. That’s a record number for an ACT election, up from 141 at the first 25-member Legislative Assembly election in 2016.

Taking into account the number of members to be elected, the average of 5.96 candidates per vacancy is only the third highest, surpassed by an average 6.4 candidates per vacancy in 1998 and 6.9 at the free-for-all first ACT election in 1989.

The chart below compares total candidate and average candidates per vacancy at ACT elections.

The number of candidates and group columns on ballot papers by electoral division are -

  • Brindabella - 24 candidates across 8 columns with one non-party candidate in the ungrouped column.
  • Ginninderra - 33 candidates across 10 columns with two non-party candidates in the ungrouped column.
  • Kurrajong - 34 candidates across 10 columns with one non-party candidate in the ungrouped column.
  • Murrumbidgee - 27 candidates across 8 columns with one non-party candidate in the ungrouped column.
  • Yerrabi - 31 candidates across 9 columns with two non-party and one Animal Justice candidates in the ungrouped column.

A table of candidates by party is inside the post.Read More »ACT 2024 – Candidates and Parties Contesting Election

2024 Federal Redistributions – Final Boundaries for NSW Released

(22 November – I’ve been through and finalised the split and merged SA1s to produce my final version of the margins. They have been incorporated into the table inside the post.)

(UPDATE – the final boundaries have been released confirming the abolition of North Sydney. There are some very minor changes of at most 0.1% and these have been updated in the table.)

(UPDATE – Friday 13 September – a discrepancy where the new electorate file coded Mcmahon rather than McMahon caused an error in my calculations. The significant changes are that Blaxland drops back from 13.9% to 13.1% while the new margin for McMahon is now 10.5% as opposed to the original estimate of 13.1%. There is also a minor adjustment for Fowler.

On Thursday 12 September, the Redistribution Committee for New South Wales released the final version of the state’s new Federal electoral boundaries. Draft boundaries were released in June and opened for public comment. This final version will be formally gazetted later this month and used for the first time at next year’s Federal election.

The redistribution has taken place to decrease the number of NSW federal divisions from 47 to 46. The final boundaries have confirmed the abolition of the Independent held seat of North Sydney.

The draft boundaries were released when I was overseas so this post is my first analysis of the draft boundaries. Today’s release includes a string small number of minor adjustments to the draft boundaries, none of which alter the analysis in this post. I will make minor adjustments to this post once the AEC publishes the datafiles required for calculations, sometime next month.

Re-calculating margins is a complex task of processing AEC polling place data files on where people voted in 2022 and comparing them with Bureau of Statistics files listing the low level SA1 (Statistical Area 1) composition of new electorates. Complicating the process is a re-numbering of many SA1s between the 2016 and 2021 Censuses. The 2022 AEC files used the old SA1 identifiers and the new electorate files use the new SA1 identifier. This has required a lot of fiddling with data to resolve inconsistencies between SA1 identifiers. Not all of the SA1 inconsistencies could be resolved but I do not believe they significantly affect any calculations.

The AEC will release its own versions of new margins next year as the election approaches. The AEC has many more resources to resolve SA1 inconsistencies and splits than are available to me.

Change in Seat Numbers

Change in Seats Held by Party
ALP LIB NAT GRN IND Total
Old boundaries 26 9 7 .. 5 47
New boundaries 25 10 7 .. 4 46

Based on traditional two-party preferred results, including for the underlying Labor-Coalition nature of Independent held seats, the changes in two-party preferred holdings are –

  • Old Boundaries 2PP: Labor 27, Coalition 20 (Liberal 13, National 7)
  • New Boundaries 2PP: Labor 26, Coalition 20 (Liberal 13, National 7)

The changes are brought about by the abolition of Independent-held North Sydney, a flow on impact of which is to flip neighbouring Bennelong from being a marginal Labor seat to as very marginal Liberal seat.

The three-way carve up of North Sydney along council boundaries is shown in the map below.

The main political implications of the changes are –

  • A relative decline in enrolment on Sydney’s lower north shore and northern beaches suburbs required a seat to be abolished north of the harbour, and as predicted before the process began, North Sydney has been abolished and divided between the re-drawn seats of Bennelong, Bradfield and Warringah.
  • There was also a shortfall south of the harbour but this has been fixed by a shift west and south-west of all boundaries to absorb a significant surplus of enrolments in south-west Sydney.
  • The Liberal electorate of Hume has also become an urban seat, shedding almost of all of its rural areas along the Hume Highway north of the ACT. It is now based on Camden in Sydney’s outer south-west fringe, along with western Parts of Liverpool Council and semi-rural Wollondilly Shire to the south. Geographically the changes are massive but the Liberal margin declines only slightly, from 7.7% to 6.9%.
  • The abolition of North Sydney is bad new for Independent Kylea Tink, but neighbouring Independents Sophie Scamps in Mackellar and Zali Staggall in Warringah retain their margins. There are few changes to the boundaries the western Sydney seat of Fowler won by Independent Dai Le in 2022.
  • In Wentworth, Independent Allegra Spender is significantly strengthened. Wentworth is a traditional Liberal seat but surrounding by Labor voting territory. By expanding into neighbouring Sydney and Kingsford Smith, Wentworth’s underlying Liberal 2-party preferred margin declines from 5.9% to 1.2%. Estimating a new Independent margin for the areas added to the seat is difficult, but a best estimate is that the addition of areas with weaker Liberal support boosts the Independent margin from 4.2% to 6.6%.
  • In Bradfield, Liberal MP Paul Fletcher faced a significant Independent challenge in 2022 that reduced his margin to just 4.2% versus an Independent. By shifting south and picking up parts of North Sydney, his margin is reduced to 2.5%. His Independent challenger from 2022, Nicolette Boele, has already announced she will contest the next election. It is unclear whether Kylea Tink will also contest Bradfield if the final boundaries confirm the abolition of her seat.
  • As already mentions, the abolition of North Sydney turns Bennelong from a marginal Labor seat to a very marginal Liberal sea.
  • By losing its Labor-voting southern end and extending north of Windsor Road, Michelle Rowland’s Labor seat of Greenway has its margin cut from 11.5% to an estimated 8.1%. As has been shown in the past, if the Liberal Party can select a good candidate, Greenway is a more marginal seat than it often appears on paper.
  • The Liberal margin for Hughes is cut from 7.0% to 3.6% as it loses Liberal voting areas near Sutherland and is pushed west beyond the Georges River to gain Labor voting territory from Weriwa and Macarthur. (There may changes to the construction of Hughes in the final boundaries.) There were no changes with the final boundaries.
  • In the Hunter valley, the transfer for Kurri Kurri strengthens Labor in Hunter but weakens its position in Paterson.
  • The National margin in Riverina declines from 14.8% to a still safe 9.7% after picking up parts of Eden-Monaro and Hume.

The new margin estimates in this post have not taken into account the adjustments included in the final boundaries. However, the list of adjustments released seem unlikely to change the estimated margins below.

Seat tables can be found inside the post.Read More »2024 Federal Redistributions – Final Boundaries for NSW Released

2024 Federal Redistributions – Final Boundaries for Victoria Released

(20 November – the tables in this post have been updated taking account of the final boundaries and incorporating split and merged SA1s. The complex way that final descriptions are released has made it difficult for me to update the transfers listed in the table but the margins have been updated.)

(Updated Friday 6 September with maps and more details on Chisholm, Deakin, Goldstein, Kooyong, Melbourne, Menzies and Wills. Estimated margins for Independent contests will be added later today..)

On Thursday 5 September the Redistribution Committee for Victoria released the fin al version of the state’s new Federal electoral boundaries. Draft boundaries were released in May and opened for public comment. This final version will be formally gazetted later this month and used for the first time at next year’s Federal election.

The redistribution has taken place to decrease the number of Victorian federal divisions from 39 to 38. The final boundaries have confirmed the abolition of the Labor seat of seat of Higgins in inner-eastern Melbourne.

Today’s release has included a string of minor adjustments to the draft boundaries, none of which appear significant to me. The release does not include the datafiles that permit new margins to be calculated. I won’t update the margins shown inside this post until the datafiles are released.

Re-calculating margins is a complex task of processing AEC polling place data files on where people voted in 2022 and comparing them with Bureau of Statistics files listing the low level SA1 (Statistical Area 1) composition of new electorates. Complicating the process is a re-numbering of many SA1s between the 2016 and 2021 Censuses. The 2022 AEC files used the old SA1 identifiers and the new electorate files use the new SA1 identifier. This has required a lot of fiddling with data to resolve inconsistencies between SA1 identifiers.

In my analysis of the draft boundaries in May I had to manually resolve these problems. I’ve managed to code the corrections this time though there are still a few inconsistencies that can’t be resolved by me. A number of the margins in this post have altered since May using the better correction method. The AEC will eventually release their own versions of new margins in the new year and they have a lot more resources than me to resolve SA1 inconsistencies and splits.

What this post does not yet do is take into account the adjustments in the final release of boundaries. I can’t do these calculations until the AEC release the maps and data files.

I have also not added estimated margins for a couple of Independent seats. That requires some manual re-calculations that I will do later today.

Change in Seat Numbers

Change in Seats Held by Party
ALP LIB NAT GRN IND Total
Old boundaries 24 8 3 1 3 39
New boundaries 24 7 3 1 3 38
With by-elections 25 6 3 1 3 38

Note: By-election line takes account of Labor winning Aston from the Liberal Party at an April 2023 by-election. Table does not take account of the decision by Monash MHR Russell Broadbent to resign from the Liberal Party and become an Independent.

Based on the two-party preferred results, including the underlying Labor-Coalition nature of Independent and Greens held seat, the changes in two-party preferred holdings are –

  • Old Boundaries 2PP: Labor 25, Coalition 14 (Liberal 11, National 3)
  • New Boundaries 2PP: Labor 25, Coalition 13 (Liberal 10, National 3)
  • Including by-elections: Labor 26, Coalition 12 (Liberal 9, National 3)

The main political implications of the changes are –

  • The Labor seat of Higgins is abolished.
  • Labor’s position in Wills is significantly weakened with the inclusion of strong Greens voting areas around Brunswick East, Carlton North and Fitzroy North. The Labor margin versus the Greens is reduced from 8.6% to an estimated 4.6%.
  • The transfer of strong Labor voting areas to Menzies, replaced by marginal Liberal country from Higgins and Kooyong, weakens Labor’s position in Chisholm, an estimated halving of the Labor margin from 6.4% to 3.2%.
  • The Liberal marginal seats of Deakin and Menzies in eastern Melbourne become even more marginal with Menzies flipping to become a notional Labor seat.
  • The strongest Liberal voting parts of Higgins have been transferred to Kooyong, held by Independent MP Dr Monique Ryan. Estimating support for an Independent in areas they did not contest at the last election, but my best estimate is that Ryan’s margin is reduced from 2.9% to 1.8%.
  • The boundary changes for Goldstein are estimated to increase the margin of Independent Zoe Daniel from 2.9% to 3.1%.

None of the estimates in this post take account of the changes announced with the release of the final boundaries. I do not believe that any of the final changes have much impact on marginal seats.

Seat tables can be found inside the post.Read More »2024 Federal Redistributions – Final Boundaries for Victoria Released

2024 Federal Redistribution – Final Boundaries for Western Australia Released

Update Tuesday 24 September – the redistribution has been finalised and all maps and data released.

Update Friday 22 November – I took a fine toothed comb to SA1s that were split or merged in the redistribution and have re-calculated margins. No major changes and the final estimates have been included in the table.

On Thursday 5 September, the Redistribution Committee for Western Australia released the state’s new Federal electoral boundaries. Draft boundaries were released in May and opened for public comment. This final version will be formally gazetted later this month and will be used for the first time at next year’s Federal election.

The redistribution has taken place to increase the number of WA federal divisions from 15 to 16.

The original post follows.

A new division called Bullwinkel has been created covering Perth’s outer east and the rural Avon Valley to the east. A map of the new electorate is included in this post. The name Bullwinkel honours Lieutenant Colonel Vivian Bullwinkel AO MBE ARRC ED FNM FRCNA (1915–2000), a civilian and military nurse who was the sole survivor of the 1942 Bangka Island massacre and a prisoner of war. The name recognises her dedication to honouring victims of war crimes, service to nursing, and the community, in both her civilian and military service. This electoral division name also honours the contribution of military medical personnel and recognises those who were prisoners of war.

The final boundaries have been released and involve only minor changes. These are –

  • Waroona Shire remains in Canning where the draft moved it into Forrest.
  • The suburb of Malaga remains in Cowan having originally been proposed for transfer to Hasluck.
  • Part of Kardinya remains in Fremantle after having been proposed for transfer to Tangney.
  • Part of Leeming proposed to be in Fremantle is now in Tangney.

These are very minor changes and the data files required to re-calculate margins will not be available for several weeks. I will update the post when they are available.

At this state the page and its included tables reflect the draft boundaries released earlier this year. I have noted where there are changes but doubt these will have any significant impact on the estimated new margins shown.

The political implications of the boundaries are –

  • The new seat of Bullwinkel is a notional Labor seat using the unusually good Labor results at the 2022 federal election. At a more normal election, and without a sitting member, Bullwinkel will be very difficult seat for Labor to notionally retain.
  • The creation of Bullwinkel results in a significant strengthening of Labor’s position in Hasluck, the Labor margin increasing from 6.0% to 10.0%.
  • Curtin sees only a minor change to boundaries meaning the redistribution has no impact on Liberal attempts to defeat Independent Kate Chaney.
  • Labor’s other marginal seats see only minor changes, Pearce’s Labor margin now 8.8%, Swan 9.4% and Tangney 2.9%.
  • On paper the Liberal margin in Canning is reduced to 1.1% but sitting MP Andrew Hastie would only be in trouble if Labor had an increase in its vote compared to 2022, a scenario that does not seem likely.
  • Moore remains a marginal seat, but less important than the redistribution is Ian Goodenough being replaced as Liberal candidate by Vince Connelly. If Goodenough were to re-contest as an Independent or National Party (one rumour) candidate, it would create a more complex contest.
Change in Seats Held by Party
Labor Liberal Independent Total
Old boundaries 9 5 1 15
New boundaries 10 5 1 16

Based on the two-party preferred results, including the underlying Labor-Coalition nature of the Independent held seat of Curtin, the changes in two-party preferred holdings is –

  • Old Boundaries 2PP: Labor 9, Liberal 6
  • New Boundaries 2PP: Labor 10, Liberal 6

Tables summarising the impact of the redistribution on each seat is included inside the post.
Read More »2024 Federal Redistribution – Final Boundaries for Western Australia Released