Tasmania

FED2026 Redistributions – Tasmanian Boundaries Finalised

The new electoral boundaries for Tasmania have been released today.

Reading through the proposed changes, the major changes to Clark, Franklin and Lyons in southern Tasmania have been agreed to. But there are changes in the north with Break O’Day council being moved into Bass.

There is also a proposed name change which has triggered the calling of a new round of comments specifically about changing the name of Franklin to Tongerlongter. As the proposal explains the name –

Following its deliberations, the augmented Electoral Commission proposes renaming the electorate of Franklin in honour of Tongerlongeter (c. 1790-1837), a Poredareme man of the Oyster Bay nation and a prominent Aboriginal leader whose Country encompassed much of south-east Tasmania, including areas within the reconfigured electorate boundaries. The name ‘Franklin’ is proposed to be retired.

Earlier I tweeted that the draft boundaries had been abandoned. That was confusion on my part by opening the wrong map and thinking that was the reason for calling a new round of submissions. It is rare for redistributions to engage in this extra consultation step. It appears the consultation is over the name change alone so the boundaries appear to be otherwise final.

The draft boundaries released earlier this year produced massive changes to the electorates of Clark, Franklin and Lyons. You can read more details in my post on the draft boundaries.

The table below summarises the two-party preferred margins between Labor and Liberal in the five divisions. I’ll go into more detail on the Independent positions in Clark and Franklin inside the post.

Tasmania Federal Redistribution – Summary of 2-Party Preferred Margin Changes
District Old Boundaries New Boundaries Shift
Bass ALP 8.0% ALP 8.3% 0.3 to ALP
Braddon ALP 7.2% ALP 7.2% Unchanged
Clark ALP 20.9% ALP 20.2% 0.7 to LIB
Franklin ALP 19.4% ALP 18.7% 0.7 to LIB
Lyons ALP 11.6% ALP 12.7% 0.9 to ALP

Read More »FED2026 Redistributions – Tasmanian Boundaries Finalised

TAS 2025 – Lyons – Tracking the Distribution of Preferences

Result links – Bass | Braddon | Clark | Franklin | Lyons

Final Figures

Table of Elected and Defeated Candidates

  • Re-elected 1 – Guy Barnett (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 2 – Jane Howlett (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 3 – Tabatha Badger (Greens)
  • Re-elected 4 – Jen Butler (Labor)
  • Elected 5 – Brian Mitchell (Labor)
  • Re-elected 6 – Mark Shelton (Liberal)
  • Elected 7 – Carlo Di Falco (SFF)
  • Defeated – Casey Farrell (Labor)
  • Defeated – Andrew Jenner (Nationals, formerly Jacqui Lambie Network)

Final figures published

Both Labor candidates reached quota. After the distribution of Labor surplus votes, many of which exhausted, only three candidates remained for two vacancies and Mark Shelton (Liberal) and Carlo Di Falco (SFF) were declared elected to the final two seats, Liberal Stephanie Cameron missing out on election.

Read More »TAS 2025 – Lyons – Tracking the Distribution of Preferences

TAS2025 – Franklin – Tracking the Distribution of Preferences

Result links – Bass | Braddon | Clark | Franklin | Lyons

Count Complete

Table of Elected and Defeated Candidates

  • Elected 1 – Peter George (Independent)
  • Re-elected 2 – Eric Abetz (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 3 – Rosalie Woodruff (Greens)
  • Re-elected 4 – David O’Byrne (Independent)
  • Re-elected 5 – Dean Winter (Labor)
  • Re-elected 6 – Jacquie Petrusma (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 7 – Meg Brown (Labor)
  • Defeated – Nick Street (Liberal)

Franklin Final Figures

Read More »TAS2025 – Franklin – Tracking the Distribution of Preferences

TAS2025 – Clark – Tracking the Distribution of Preferences

Result links – Bass | Braddon | Clark | Franklin | Lyons

FINAL FIGURES

Table of Elected and Defeated Candidates

  • Re-elected 1 – Kristie Johnston (Independent)
  • Re-elected 2 – Vica Bayley (Greens)
  • Re-elected 3 – Ella Haddad (Labor)
  • Re-elected 4 – Josh Willie (Labor)
  • Re-elected 5 – Helen Burnet (Greens)
  • Elected 6 – Marcus Vermey (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 7 – Madeleine Ogilvie (Liberal)
  • Defeated – Simon Behrakis (Liberal)

Final Figures

At the end of the count Madeleine Ogilvie was declared the winner of the seventh seat defeated party colleague Simon Behrakis 7,082 votes (0.885 quotas) to 6,902 (0.862 quotas). Below is the count after all preferences had been distributed.

Read More »TAS2025 – Clark – Tracking the Distribution of Preferences

TAS2025 – Braddon – Tracking the Distribution of Preferences

Result links – Bass | Braddon | Clark | Franklin | Lyons

Count Finalised Friday 1 August

Table of Elected and Defeated Candidates

  • Re-elected 1 – Jeremy Rockliff (Liberal)
  • Elected 2 – Gavin Pearce (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 3 – Craig Garland (Independent)
  • Re-elected 4 – Felix Ellis (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 5 – Anita Dow (Labor)
  • Re-elected 6 – Roger Jaensch (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 7 – Shane Broad (Labor)
  • Defeated – Miriam Beswick (National, former Jacqui Lambie Network)

Count complete, final figures

The final exclusion was SFF candidate Adrian Pickin. This put both Liberal Roger Jaensch and Labor’s Shane Bond over quota in that order. A tiny number of reduced transfer value votes remained with Pickin at the end of the count. The final Greens candidate was not excluded. Below is a pie chart of the final count with seven members elected.


Read More »TAS2025 – Braddon – Tracking the Distribution of Preferences

TAS2025 – Bass – Tracking the Distribution of Preferences

Result links – Bass | Braddon | Clark | Franklin | Lyons

Count now Final

BASS – Table of Elected and Defeated Candidates

  • Elected 1 – Bridget Archer (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 2 – Janie Finlay (Labor)
  • Re-elected 3 – Michael Ferguson (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 4 – Cecily Rosol (Greens)
  • Re-elected 5 – Rob Fairs (Liberal)
  • Elected 6 – George Razay (Independent)
  • Elected 7 – Jess Greene (Labor)
  • Retired – Michelle O’Byrne (Labor)
  • Defeated – Simon Wood (Liberal)
  • Defeated – Rebekah Pentland (Independent, ex-Jacqui Lambie network)

Count now final. Razay elected 6, Jess Greene 7.

Final tally
George Razay (IND) – 6,968 (0.826 quotas) elected 6
Jess Greene (ALP) – 6,555 (0.777 quotas) elected 7
Geoff Lyons (ALP) 6,294 (0.746 quotas)
Final exhausted 5,473 (0.649 quotas). See final pie chart below.

Frydrych’s preferences went 40% to Razay, 10% to Greene, 12% Lyons and 38% exhausted.

Read More »TAS2025 – Bass – Tracking the Distribution of Preferences

TAS2025 – Election Night and Post-Election Updates

Final Figures – Saturday 2 August

While reports of my retirement from television election coverage after the Federal election are correct, I am still involved off camera. I worked in the Tasmanian tallyroom on election night supporting the ABC’s coverage, my 11th Tasmanian election since in 1992, and I’ll continue to provide updates through this blog.

Otherwise you can find results on the ABC election site at https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/tas-election-2025

Quick Summary – Labor’s vote has fallen across the state, the Liberal vote is up. The Labor Party has repeated its 2024 result by winning two seats in each division. The Liberal Party looks set to again elect for 14 members, gaining a seat in the Premier’s seat of Braddon but losing one in Franklin. The Greens have re-elected the same five members, two in Clark and one each in Bass, Franklin and Lyons. Independents re-elected are David O’Byrne in Franklin, Kristie Johnston in Clark and Craig Garland in Braddon. Peter George has been elected as a second Independent in Franklin and George Razay won the final seat in Bass. Shooters, Fishers and Farmers candidate Carlo Di Franco won the final seat in Lyons.

The Liberal gain in Braddon, Independent gain in Bass and SFF gain in Lyons were all in seats won by the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) in 2024. Peter George’s victory in Franklin was at the expense of a Liberal MHA.

All three MHA’s elected as Jacqui Lambie Network candidates last year were defeated at the 2025 election. Miriam Beswick re-contested Braddon as a Nationals candidate but her seat was gained by the Liberals. Rebekah Pentland was defeated re-contesting Bass as an Independent but her prefernces were important for the victory of Independent George Razay. JLN turned Nationals candidate Andrew Jenner was defeated in Lyons, his seat won by Carlo Di Falco of the Shooters Fishers and Farmers Party.

Percentage vote, change in vote share and seats won by party

Time % Counted LIB ALP GRN SFF NAT OTH
25 July 89.8 Current Vote Share 39.9 25.9 14.4 2.9 1.6 15.3
Change in Vote +3.2 -3.1 +0.5 +0.6 +1.6 -2.8
Seats Won 14 10 5 1 – 5

On the Others vote, Independent support has risen 5.8% but the minus value for others is due parties not contesting the 2025 election, the Jacqui Lambie Network down -6.7%, Animal Justice -1.5% and Local Network -0.3%.

The changed membership by division can be summarised as follows –

  • Bass – former Federal MP Bridget Archer has won election at the expense of Liberal MP Simon Wood. Labor’s Jess Greene won the second Labor seat vacated by the retiring Michelle O’Byrne. Independent George Razay won the seat previously held by Jacqui Lambie Network turned Independent MP Rebekah Penland. (See summary of the count in Bass here.)
  • Braddon – former Federal MP Gavin Pearce won a fourth seat for the Liberal Party at the expense Jacqui Lambie Network MP turned Nationals Candidate Miriam Beswick. (See summary of the count in Braddon here.)
  • Clark – Marcus Vermey won the first Liberal seat in Clark, leaving a battle between sitting MHAs Simon Behrakis and Madeleine Ogilvie for the second seat, a battle won with a late rush of preferences by Ogilvie. (See summary of the count in Clark here.)
  • Franklin – Independent Peter George was elected, defeating Liberal Nic Street, costing the Liberal Party its third seat. (See summary of the count in Franklin here.)
  • Lyons – former Federal Labor MP Brian Mitchell has won the second Labor seat with Casey Farrell defeated. Farrell was elected at a re-count when Rebecca White resigned to contest and win the Federal seat of Lyons. Mitchell was the Federal MP that White succeeded and he now replaces White’s short term successor in Lyons. The final seat previously held by Jaqui Lambie Network MP turned Nationals candidate Andrew Jenner was won by Carli Di Falco of the Shooters Fishers and Farmers. (See summary of the count in Lyons here.)

Read More »TAS2025 – Election Night and Post-Election Updates

FED2025 – Tasmanian Federal Election Result

This post is the second in my series looking at the results of the 2025 Federal election by state.

In short Tasmania produced an emphatic victory for Labor with a state-wide two-party preferred swing of 9%.

Former state Labor Leader Rebecca White easily retained the central seat of Lyons for labor with a 10.7% swing in her favour. Big swings delivered the state’s two northern seats to Labor, Bass gained on a 9.4% swing and Braddon a massive 15.2% swing.

Given current events that look set to send Tasmania to a state election in July, some have suggested the move by Labor to force an election has been to capitalise on the Liberal Party’s disastrous Federal result.

That suggestion ignores two critical facts. The first is that Tasmania uses the proportional Hare-Clark electoral system to elect the lower house of its Parliament so Labor’s huge two-party preferred result is irrelevant. Second, Labor’s huge two-party preferred result was constructed from a Labor primary result of 36.6% that would not deliver majority government if repeated at a state election.

That the Federal Liberal Party polled a primary vote of only 24.5% suggests that Labor could emerge as the largest party at a state election, but not as a majority government.

The most recent EMRS poll of state voting intentions reported party standings at Liberal 29 per cent (down 5), Labor 31 (up 1), Greens 14 (up 1), Jacqui Lambie Network 6 (down 2) and Independents an impressive 17 (up 5). A significant caveat on the poll is whether is was picking up washover from Federal voting intentions.

The two big Tasmanian issues are the state of the budget, and the related burden of paying to build an expensive AFL stadium at Macquarie Point. There is clear public support for the state to have an AFL team, but support for the proposed stadium is much weaker. Both major parties currently support the stadium, but the majority of cross bench members do not and opposition to the proposal is particularly strong in the state’s north.

I’ll come back to the Federal result inside the post, but first a brief diversion to the events currently unfolding in Hobart.Read More »FED2025 – Tasmanian Federal Election Result

2024 Tasmanian Election – Final Day of Counting

Today, Saturday 6 April, the Tasmanian Electoral Commission will finalise the distribution of preferences for last month’s Tasmanian election.

Counts were completed in Clark and Franklin yesterday with all seven vacancies filled and members formally declared elected. Three seats remain to be declared in each of Bass, Braddon and Lyons. You can check the overall election result summary at this link, or my posts following the distribution of preferences over the last week for each seat using the links below.

Updates by Division: Bass ! Braddon ! Clark ! Franklin ! Lyons

The final three seats in Bass and Lyons are clear and today’s counting will merely confirm projected winners. The same applies to two of the three vacancies in Braddon.

This post will concentrate on the last seat in Braddon, a tight contest between fourth Liberal candidate Giovanna Simpson and Independent Craig Garland. It is predicted that Garland will catch and pass Simpson on preferences to win the final seat.

This will leave the Liberal Party with just 14 seats in the 35 seat House of Assembly. With Labor on 10 seats having ruled out taking office, the Rockliff government will need to negotiate with an 11 member crossbench, five Greens, three Independents and three first time members representing the Jacquie Lambie Network. There may be some votes where the Labor opposition votes with the government and is opposed by the crossbench.

I will take note other members declared elected today, but for the most part this post will concentrate on the race for the final seat in Braddon.

Braddon Updates

To follow the Braddon count I will use the table below. For the six remaining candidates, at each count the table will show votes held and the quotas those votes represent. As each new count is added, a total for change since the last count will also be shown.

The technically minded might want to now what the “Exh/LBF” column is. It is a total of ballot papers that have run out of further preferences up to and including the count shown. It also includes a small number of ‘loss-by-fraction” votes that are fractional votes created by the distribution of preferences for surplus to quota votes. As I said, for the technically minded.

I’ll have more to say once we start seeing new counts reported.

Final 2022 Braddon Counts – Saturday 6 April (Quota 8,875)
Count Detail Broad
(ALP)		 Simpson
(LIB)		 Garland
(IND)		 Beswick
(JLN)		 Briggs
(GRN)		 Redgrave
(JLN)		 Exh/LBF
72 Votes 8,808 5,870 5,479 5,011 4,901 4,781 643
Quota 0.992 0.661 0.617 0.565 0.552 0.539 0.072
77 Change +276 +147 +259 +3,788 +115 -4,781 +196
Votes 9,084 6,017 5,738 8,799 5,016 .. 839
Quota 1.024 0.678 0.647 0.991 0.565 .. 0.095
78 Change -209 +15 +27 +57 +19 .. +91
Votes 8,875 6,032 5,765 8,856 5,035 .. 930
Quota 1.000 0.680 0.650 0.998 0.567 .. 0.105
79 Change .. +281 +1,491 +1,125 -4,950 .. +2,053
Votes .. 6,313 7,256 9,981 85 .. 2,983
Quota .. 0.711 0.818 1.125 0.010 .. 0.336
84 Change .. +19 +24 +0 -85 +0 +42
Votes .. 6,332 7,280 9,981 0 .. 3,025
Quota .. 0.713 0.820 1.125 .. .. 0.341
85 Change .. +149 +581 -1,106 .. .. +376
Votes .. 6,481 7,861 8,875 .. .. 3,401
Quota .. 0.730 0.886 1.000 .. .. 0.383

Simpson’s lead over Garland
At count 72 – 391 votes
At count 77 – 279 votes
At count 78 – 267 votes
At count 79 – Garland ahead by 943 votes and will be elected
At count 84 – Garland ahead by 1,380 votes and fills the seventh seat.
Read More »2024 Tasmanian Election – Final Day of Counting

2024 Tasmanian Election Result – State Summary

Updated : at completion of count on Saturday 6 April

This post summarises the election results. See posts linked below for more details on the count in individual seats.

Updates by Division: Bass ! Braddon ! Clark ! Franklin ! Lyons

Summary of Seats Won By Party
LIB ALP GRN JLN IND Total
Declared Elected 14 10 5 3 3 35
Change on 2021 +1 +1 +3 +3 +2 +10

Read More »2024 Tasmanian Election Result – State Summary