July 2025

TAS 2025 – Lyons – Tracking the Distribution of Preferences

Result links – Bass | Braddon | Clark | Franklin | Lyons

Final Figures

Table of Elected and Defeated Candidates

  • Re-elected 1 – Guy Barnett (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 2 – Jane Howlett (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 3 – Tabatha Badger (Greens)
  • Re-elected 4 – Jen Butler (Labor)
  • Elected 5 – Brian Mitchell (Labor)
  • Re-elected 6 – Mark Shelton (Liberal)
  • Elected 7 – Carlo Di Falco (SFF)
  • Defeated – Casey Farrell (Labor)
  • Defeated – Andrew Jenner (Nationals, formerly Jacqui Lambie Network)

Final figures published

Both Labor candidates reached quota. After the distribution of Labor surplus votes, many of which exhausted, only three candidates remained for two vacancies and Mark Shelton (Liberal) and Carlo Di Falco (SFF) were declared elected to the final two seats, Liberal Stephanie Cameron missing out on election.

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TAS2025 – Franklin – Tracking the Distribution of Preferences

Result links – Bass | Braddon | Clark | Franklin | Lyons

Count Complete

Table of Elected and Defeated Candidates

  • Elected 1 – Peter George (Independent)
  • Re-elected 2 – Eric Abetz (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 3 – Rosalie Woodruff (Greens)
  • Re-elected 4 – David O’Byrne (Independent)
  • Re-elected 5 – Dean Winter (Labor)
  • Re-elected 6 – Jacquie Petrusma (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 7 – Meg Brown (Labor)
  • Defeated – Nick Street (Liberal)

Franklin Final Figures

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TAS2025 – Clark – Tracking the Distribution of Preferences

Result links – Bass | Braddon | Clark | Franklin | Lyons

FINAL FIGURES

Table of Elected and Defeated Candidates

  • Re-elected 1 – Kristie Johnston (Independent)
  • Re-elected 2 – Vica Bayley (Greens)
  • Re-elected 3 – Ella Haddad (Labor)
  • Re-elected 4 – Josh Willie (Labor)
  • Re-elected 5 – Helen Burnet (Greens)
  • Elected 6 – Marcus Vermey (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 7 – Madeleine Ogilvie (Liberal)
  • Defeated – Simon Behrakis (Liberal)

Final Figures

At the end of the count Madeleine Ogilvie was declared the winner of the seventh seat defeated party colleague Simon Behrakis 7,082 votes (0.885 quotas) to 6,902 (0.862 quotas). Below is the count after all preferences had been distributed.

Read More »TAS2025 – Clark – Tracking the Distribution of Preferences

TAS2025 – Braddon – Tracking the Distribution of Preferences

Result links – Bass | Braddon | Clark | Franklin | Lyons

Count Finalised Friday 1 August

Table of Elected and Defeated Candidates

  • Re-elected 1 – Jeremy Rockliff (Liberal)
  • Elected 2 – Gavin Pearce (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 3 – Craig Garland (Independent)
  • Re-elected 4 – Felix Ellis (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 5 – Anita Dow (Labor)
  • Re-elected 6 – Roger Jaensch (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 7 – Shane Broad (Labor)
  • Defeated – Miriam Beswick (National, former Jacqui Lambie Network)

Count complete, final figures

The final exclusion was SFF candidate Adrian Pickin. This put both Liberal Roger Jaensch and Labor’s Shane Bond over quota in that order. A tiny number of reduced transfer value votes remained with Pickin at the end of the count. The final Greens candidate was not excluded. Below is a pie chart of the final count with seven members elected.


Read More »TAS2025 – Braddon – Tracking the Distribution of Preferences

TAS2025 – Bass – Tracking the Distribution of Preferences

Result links – Bass | Braddon | Clark | Franklin | Lyons

Count now Final

BASS – Table of Elected and Defeated Candidates

  • Elected 1 – Bridget Archer (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 2 – Janie Finlay (Labor)
  • Re-elected 3 – Michael Ferguson (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 4 – Cecily Rosol (Greens)
  • Re-elected 5 – Rob Fairs (Liberal)
  • Elected 6 – George Razay (Independent)
  • Elected 7 – Jess Greene (Labor)
  • Retired – Michelle O’Byrne (Labor)
  • Defeated – Simon Wood (Liberal)
  • Defeated – Rebekah Pentland (Independent, ex-Jacqui Lambie network)

Count now final. Razay elected 6, Jess Greene 7.

Final tally
George Razay (IND) – 6,968 (0.826 quotas) elected 6
Jess Greene (ALP) – 6,555 (0.777 quotas) elected 7
Geoff Lyons (ALP) 6,294 (0.746 quotas)
Final exhausted 5,473 (0.649 quotas). See final pie chart below.

Frydrych’s preferences went 40% to Razay, 10% to Greene, 12% Lyons and 38% exhausted.

Read More »TAS2025 – Bass – Tracking the Distribution of Preferences

TAS2025 – Election Night and Post-Election Updates

Final Figures – Saturday 2 August

While reports of my retirement from television election coverage after the Federal election are correct, I am still involved off camera. I worked in the Tasmanian tallyroom on election night supporting the ABC’s coverage, my 11th Tasmanian election since in 1992, and I’ll continue to provide updates through this blog.

Otherwise you can find results on the ABC election site at https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/tas-election-2025

Quick Summary – Labor’s vote has fallen across the state, the Liberal vote is up. The Labor Party has repeated its 2024 result by winning two seats in each division. The Liberal Party looks set to again elect for 14 members, gaining a seat in the Premier’s seat of Braddon but losing one in Franklin. The Greens have re-elected the same five members, two in Clark and one each in Bass, Franklin and Lyons. Independents re-elected are David O’Byrne in Franklin, Kristie Johnston in Clark and Craig Garland in Braddon. Peter George has been elected as a second Independent in Franklin and George Razay won the final seat in Bass. Shooters, Fishers and Farmers candidate Carlo Di Franco won the final seat in Lyons.

The Liberal gain in Braddon, Independent gain in Bass and SFF gain in Lyons were all in seats won by the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) in 2024. Peter George’s victory in Franklin was at the expense of a Liberal MHA.

All three MHA’s elected as Jacqui Lambie Network candidates last year were defeated at the 2025 election. Miriam Beswick re-contested Braddon as a Nationals candidate but her seat was gained by the Liberals. Rebekah Pentland was defeated re-contesting Bass as an Independent but her prefernces were important for the victory of Independent George Razay. JLN turned Nationals candidate Andrew Jenner was defeated in Lyons, his seat won by Carlo Di Falco of the Shooters Fishers and Farmers Party.

Percentage vote, change in vote share and seats won by party

Time % Counted LIB ALP GRN SFF NAT OTH
25 July 89.8 Current Vote Share 39.9 25.9 14.4 2.9 1.6 15.3
Change in Vote +3.2 -3.1 +0.5 +0.6 +1.6 -2.8
Seats Won 14 10 5 1 – 5

On the Others vote, Independent support has risen 5.8% but the minus value for others is due parties not contesting the 2025 election, the Jacqui Lambie Network down -6.7%, Animal Justice -1.5% and Local Network -0.3%.

The changed membership by division can be summarised as follows –

  • Bass – former Federal MP Bridget Archer has won election at the expense of Liberal MP Simon Wood. Labor’s Jess Greene won the second Labor seat vacated by the retiring Michelle O’Byrne. Independent George Razay won the seat previously held by Jacqui Lambie Network turned Independent MP Rebekah Penland. (See summary of the count in Bass here.)
  • Braddon – former Federal MP Gavin Pearce won a fourth seat for the Liberal Party at the expense Jacqui Lambie Network MP turned Nationals Candidate Miriam Beswick. (See summary of the count in Braddon here.)
  • Clark – Marcus Vermey won the first Liberal seat in Clark, leaving a battle between sitting MHAs Simon Behrakis and Madeleine Ogilvie for the second seat, a battle won with a late rush of preferences by Ogilvie. (See summary of the count in Clark here.)
  • Franklin – Independent Peter George was elected, defeating Liberal Nic Street, costing the Liberal Party its third seat. (See summary of the count in Franklin here.)
  • Lyons – former Federal Labor MP Brian Mitchell has won the second Labor seat with Casey Farrell defeated. Farrell was elected at a re-count when Rebecca White resigned to contest and win the Federal seat of Lyons. Mitchell was the Federal MP that White succeeded and he now replaces White’s short term successor in Lyons. The final seat previously held by Jaqui Lambie Network MP turned Nationals candidate Andrew Jenner was won by Carli Di Falco of the Shooters Fishers and Farmers. (See summary of the count in Lyons here.)

Read More »TAS2025 – Election Night and Post-Election Updates

FED2025 – Western Australia House Results

In 2022 it was the huge swing to Labor in Western Australia that delivered majority status to the Albanese government.

In 2025 the WA result was less dramatic, more a case of Labor’s position firming as the rest of the nation caught up with the west’s trend.

WA’s 2022 swing to Labor was a whopping 10.5% compared to 2.9% east of the border. Western Australia produced the smallest state swing to Labor in 2025, just 0.9%, but against a larger 3.3% swing in the rest of the nation.

Over two elections since 2019, the two-party preferred swing to Labor in Western Australia has been 11.4% against 6.2% in the rest of Australia. In six years Western Australia has gone from being a bulwark for the Coalition to being a bastion for Labor at both state and federal elections.Read More »FED2025 – Western Australia House Results