Australia Elections State

2024 Northern Tablelands By-election

In NSW the Minns government will face its first electoral test on June 22 at the Northern Tablelands by-election.

Or to be more correct, could have faced its first by-election test because Labor looks unlikely to nominate a candidate. Based in the state’s rural north, Northern Tablelands is the Coalition’s safest seat, the Nationals polling a huge 83.8% of the two-party preferred at last year’s state election. At the 2011 election, the Labor vote was so low its candidate lost their deposit!

The only interest will be if an Independent candidate nominates, trying to tap into local Independent support that saw Richard Torbay win Northern Tablelands at four elections from 1999 to 2011 and helped Tony Windsor win the Federal seat of New England in the same period.

I’m publishing a profile of the by-election on my personal blog as I will be overseas for the by-election and not have access to the ABC website. I will try and update this page while overseas. I will not be providing result commentary on 22 June as I will be otherwise engaged in Budapest.

2024 Northern Tablelands By-election

Party Status: Very Very Safe National 33.8%

Date – Saturday 22 June 2024

The by-election has been caused by the retirement of National Party MLA Adam Marshall.

The by-election writ will be issued and rolls close on Friday 31 May. Nominations close Thursday 6 June with announcement of candidates and draw for ballot position on Friday 7 June. Postal vote application open Monday 20 May, Pre-Poll voting starts Saturday 15 June. Further information on the by-election can be found at the NSW Electoral Commission’s website.

Read More »2024 Northern Tablelands By-election

2024 Tasmanian Election – Final Day of Counting

Today, Saturday 6 April, the Tasmanian Electoral Commission will finalise the distribution of preferences for last month’s Tasmanian election.

Counts were completed in Clark and Franklin yesterday with all seven vacancies filled and members formally declared elected. Three seats remain to be declared in each of Bass, Braddon and Lyons. You can check the overall election result summary at this link, or my posts following the distribution of preferences over the last week for each seat using the links below.

Updates by Division: Bass ! Braddon ! Clark ! Franklin ! Lyons

The final three seats in Bass and Lyons are clear and today’s counting will merely confirm projected winners. The same applies to two of the three vacancies in Braddon.

This post will concentrate on the last seat in Braddon, a tight contest between fourth Liberal candidate Giovanna Simpson and Independent Craig Garland. It is predicted that Garland will catch and pass Simpson on preferences to win the final seat.

This will leave the Liberal Party with just 14 seats in the 35 seat House of Assembly. With Labor on 10 seats having ruled out taking office, the Rockliff government will need to negotiate with an 11 member crossbench, five Greens, three Independents and three first time members representing the Jacquie Lambie Network. There may be some votes where the Labor opposition votes with the government and is opposed by the crossbench.

I will take note other members declared elected today, but for the most part this post will concentrate on the race for the final seat in Braddon.

Braddon Updates

To follow the Braddon count I will use the table below. For the six remaining candidates, at each count the table will show votes held and the quotas those votes represent. As each new count is added, a total for change since the last count will also be shown.

The technically minded might want to now what the “Exh/LBF” column is. It is a total of ballot papers that have run out of further preferences up to and including the count shown. It also includes a small number of ‘loss-by-fraction” votes that are fractional votes created by the distribution of preferences for surplus to quota votes. As I said, for the technically minded.

I’ll have more to say once we start seeing new counts reported.

Final 2022 Braddon Counts – Saturday 6 April (Quota 8,875)
Count Detail Broad
(ALP)
Simpson
(LIB)
Garland
(IND)
Beswick
(JLN)
Briggs
(GRN)
Redgrave
(JLN)
Exh/LBF
72 Votes 8,808 5,870 5,479 5,011 4,901 4,781 643
Quota 0.992 0.661 0.617 0.565 0.552 0.539 0.072
77 Change +276 +147 +259 +3,788 +115 -4,781 +196
Votes 9,084 6,017 5,738 8,799 5,016 .. 839
Quota 1.024 0.678 0.647 0.991 0.565 .. 0.095
78 Change -209 +15 +27 +57 +19 .. +91
Votes 8,875 6,032 5,765 8,856 5,035 .. 930
Quota 1.000 0.680 0.650 0.998 0.567 .. 0.105
79 Change .. +281 +1,491 +1,125 -4,950 .. +2,053
Votes .. 6,313 7,256 9,981 85 .. 2,983
Quota .. 0.711 0.818 1.125 0.010 .. 0.336
84 Change .. +19 +24 +0 -85 +0 +42
Votes .. 6,332 7,280 9,981 0 .. 3,025
Quota .. 0.713 0.820 1.125 .. .. 0.341
85 Change .. +149 +581 -1,106 .. .. +376
Votes .. 6,481 7,861 8,875 .. .. 3,401
Quota .. 0.730 0.886 1.000 .. .. 0.383

Simpson’s lead over Garland
At count 72 – 391 votes
At count 77 – 279 votes
At count 78 – 267 votes
At count 79 – Garland ahead by 943 votes and will be elected
At count 84 – Garland ahead by 1,380 votes and fills the seventh seat.
Read More »2024 Tasmanian Election – Final Day of Counting

2024 Tasmanian Election Result – State Summary

Updated : at completion of count on Saturday 6 April

This post summarises the election results. See posts linked below for more details on the count in individual seats.

Updates by Division: Bass ! Braddon ! Clark ! Franklin ! Lyons

Summary of Seats Won By Party
LIB ALP GRN JLN IND Total
Declared Elected 14 10 5 3 3 35
Change on 2021 +1 +1 +3 +3 +2 +10

Read More »2024 Tasmanian Election Result – State Summary

2024 Tasmania Election Results – Lyons Updates

Final Update: Count completion Saturday 6 April

Elected and Projected Members

  • Re-elected 1 – Rebecca White (Labor)
  • Re-elected 2 – Guy Barnett (Liberal)
  • Elected 3 – Jane Howlett (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 4 – Jen Butler (Labor)
  • Re-elected 5 – Mark Shelton (Liberal)
  • Elected 6 – Andrew Jenner (Jacqui Lambie Network) – to be confirmed
  • Elected 7 – Tabatha Badger (Greens) – to be confirmed
  • Defeated – John Tucker (Independent)

Other Updates: Bass ! Braddon ! Clark ! Franklin

Table updates inside post.
Read More »2024 Tasmania Election Results – Lyons Updates

2024 Tasmanian Election Results – Franklin Updates

Update: Count over – evening of Friday 5 April

Elected and Projected Members

  • Re-elected 1 – Roslaie Woodruff (Greens)
  • Re-elected 2 – Dean Winter (Labor)
  • Elected 3 – Jacquie Petrusma (Liberal)
  • Elected 4 – Meg Brown (Labor)
  • Re-elected 5 – David O’Byrne (Independent)
  • Elected 6 – Eric Abetz (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 7 – Nic Street (Liberal)
  • Defeated – Dean Young (Liberal)

Other Updates: Bass ! Braddon ! Clark ! Lyons

Quota – 9,006

The first five elected members from Woodruff to O’Byrne reached quota and had a surplus distributed. At the end of the count there were three candidates left to fill the last two vacancies. The final totals were –

  • Eric Abetz (Liberal) – 8,634 votes – 0.96 quotas – declared elected
  • Nic Street (Liberal) – 8,462 votes – 0.94 quotas – declared elected
  • Jade Darko (Greens) – 6,900 votes – 0.77 quotas – not elected

Previous updates inside post.
Read More »2024 Tasmanian Election Results – Franklin Updates

2024 Tasmanian Election Results – Clark Updates

End of Counting Friday 5 April – Count completed and 7 members elected.

Elected and Projected Members

  • Re-elected 1 – Ella Haddad (Labor)
  • Re-elected 2 – Vica Bayley (Greens)
  • Elected 3 – Josh Willie (Labor)
  • Re-elected 4 – Kristie Johnston (Independent)
  • Elected 5 – Helen Burnet (Greens)
  • Re-elected 6 – Simon Behrakis (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 7 – Madeleine Ogilvie (Liberal)

Other Updates: Bass ! Braddon ! Franklin ! Lyons

Quota – 7,951 votes

The first five elected candidates passed the quota and had their surpluses distributed. That left three Liberal candidates –

  • Simon Behrakis – 7,574 votes – 0.95 quotas
  • Madeleine Ogilvie – 7,221 votes – 0.91 quotas
  • Marcus Vermey – 5,542 votes – 0.70 quotas

Behrakis and Ogilvie were declared elected without the need to distribute Vermey’s surplus.

Previous updates inside post.
Read More »2024 Tasmanian Election Results – Clark Updates

2024 Tasmanian Election Results – Braddon Updates

Final Update – End of counting Saturday 6 April

NOTE: Got to this post for updated results on the final day of counting, Saturday 6 April.

Elected and Projected Members

  • Re-elected 1 – Jeremy Rockliff (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 2 – Felix Ellis (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 3 – Anita Dow (Labor)
  • Re-elected 4 – Roger Jaensch (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 5 – Shane Broad (Labor)
  • Elected 6 – Miriam Beswick (Jacqui Lambie Network)
  • Elected 7 – Craig Garland (Independent)

Other Updates: Bass ! Clark ! Franklin ! Lyons

Table updates inside post.
Read More »2024 Tasmanian Election Results – Braddon Updates

2024 Tasmanian Election Results – Bass Updates

Final Update: End of the count Saturday 6 April

NOTE: Got to this post for updated results on the final day of counting, Saturday 6 April.

Elected and Projected Members

  • Re-elected 1 – Michael Ferguson (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 2 – Michelle O’Byrne (Labor)
  • Re-elected 3 – Janie Finlay (Labor)
  • Elected 4 – Rob Fairs (Liberal)
  • Elected 5 – Cecily Rosol (Greens)
  • Elected 6 – Rebekah Pentland (Jacqui Lambie Network)
  • Re-elected 7 – Simon Wood (Liberal)
  • Defeated – Lara Alexander (Independent)

Other Updates: Braddon ! Clark ! Franklin ! Lyons

Updates inside post.
Read More »2024 Tasmanian Election Results – Bass Updates

How a Hare-Clark Count Works

10am today is the close-off time for receipt of Tasmanian election postal votes. After these votes have been added to the count, the Tasmanian Electoral Commission will begin an amalgamation count, where ballot papers by candidate by polling place are amalgamated into bundles of ballot papers by candidate by electorate.

Once amalgamation is complete, the Electoral Commission will begin distributing preferences. Over the next few days I will have a dedicated post for each division where I will summarise the progress of the 2024 count.

To visualise how the distribution of preferences takes place, this post summarises the 2021 count progress for Bass. It explains why vote for parties is much more important under Hare-Clark than it is at Senate elections, where above-the-line party votes control the count. Both Senate and Hare-Clark counts are conducted as contests between candidates, but with Hare-Clark the split of party votes between candidates is much more than at Senate elections.

The chart below shows the party totals at Count 1, the final tally of first preference votes.

Read More »How a Hare-Clark Count Works

Dunstan By-election Updates plus problems with the SA Electoral Act

After looking the clear winner of the Dunstan by-election on Saturday night, Labor has finished with a narrower margin than expected.

Dunstan had been held by former Liberal Premier Steven Marshall since 2010. He squeaked home with a narrow 0.5% margin at the 2022 state election which meant the seat was always going to be a hotly contested by-election on his retirement. (For background on the by-election and the results see my profile on the ABC Elections website. Final figures published.)

On election night the Labor Party finished on 53.8%, boosted to 54.0% on Sunday by check counting. At that point, based on declaration vote trends at the 2022 state election, Labor would have expected to finish with 52.7% once all votes were counted.

In fact the race has been much closer. On Thursday 28 March, Labor’s Cressida O’Hanlon is on 50.8% after preferences with a lead over Liberal Anna Finizio of 347 votes. The count is at 80.5% of enrolment with only a handful of outstanding postal votes remaining to be counted. Due to Good Friday, postal vote return closes on Tuesday 2 April to be followed by the formnal distribution of preferences.

Labor will win after a swing of 1.4%, down substantially on the 4.5% swing seen on election night.

The table below shows how the count narrowed with the release of each successive declaration vote count.Read More »Dunstan By-election Updates plus problems with the SA Electoral Act