Western Australia

Preference Flows at the Secret Harbour By-Election

Update after full distribution of preferences published: The Liberal Party polled 4,777 votes. During the distribution of preferences, its tally rose to 6,018 votes. When excluded, 3,549 votes transferred to One Nation. That means it is mathematically impossible for Liberal preferences to flow to One Nation at a rate higher than 74.3%. (3549/4777).

My original estimate based on flow data counted out for the Early Voting Centre was that 70.2% of Liberal preferences flowed to One Nation. While I cannot update that number from the distribution of preferences, the lower Liberal vote on polling day suggests to me the % flow of Liberal preferences to One Nation is under 70%.

A quick break from my holiday to deal with some nonsense claims made about preference flows at the Secret Harbour by-election.

In this YouTube video, Topher Field uses some weird maths to come to the conclusion that the Secret Harbour by-election saw a record flow of Liberal and right-wing candidate preference flows to One Nation.

It is a bit hard to be clear what he is saying, but I think he comes to the conclusion that once you exclude left-wing parties from the calculations, 88% of preferences from right parties, including the Liberal Party, flowed to One Nation.

This claim is rubbish and preference flow data released by the WA Electoral Commission shows that claim to be wrong.
Read More »Preference Flows at the Secret Harbour By-Election

WA2025 – Statistical Analysis of 2025 Western Australian election

For the past three decades I have been preparing electoral publications for the Western Australian Parliamentary Library, covering state election results and redistributions. The latest in the series covering the 2025 WA state election has recently been published.

The publication contains summary tables of the overall results including votes and swings for all lower house districts, various summary tables, as well as details of the Legislative Council election including a walk through of the Legislative Council’s distribution of preferences.

Inside this post I provide a new electoral pendulum and extract the publication’s overall summary.

You can find the publication at this link.

Read More »WA2025 – Statistical Analysis of 2025 Western Australian election

FED2025 – Western Australia House Results

In 2022 it was the huge swing to Labor in Western Australia that delivered majority status to the Albanese government.

In 2025 the WA result was less dramatic, more a case of Labor’s position firming as the rest of the nation caught up with the west’s trend.

WA’s 2022 swing to Labor was a whopping 10.5% compared to 2.9% east of the border. Western Australia produced the smallest state swing to Labor in 2025, just 0.9%, but against a larger 3.3% swing in the rest of the nation.

Over two elections since 2019, the two-party preferred swing to Labor in Western Australia has been 11.4% against 6.2% in the rest of Australia. In six years Western Australia has gone from being a bulwark for the Coalition to being a bastion for Labor at both state and federal elections.Read More »FED2025 – Western Australia House Results

2025 Western Australia Election – Lower House Results

This post will update over the next two weeks as counting for the 2025 Western Australian Legislative Assembly (lower house) election is finalised.

Originally the post just covered changes in members elected at the election, but I’ve now added a long analysis comparing the result of the 2017 and 2025 elections. This compares Labor’s then best but now third best ever result at a WA election, with 2025 which is now the new second best result. It is hard to compare either with the mega-landslide result in 2021.

But comparing 2025 to 2021 state-wide, Labor’s primary vote in the metropolitan area was down 18.3%, but the Liberal primary vote was up only 6.8%, nearly two-thirds of the lost primary vote since 2021 went to third parties before translating into an 11.9% two-party preferred swing. That still left Labor with a better result in vote and seat terms than in 2017.

Updates to the changing membership table since the post was first updated are –

  • Albany was confirmed as a National rather than a Liberal gain from Labor.
  • Warren-Blackwood was confirmed as a National gain from Labor.
  • Pilbara was confirmed as a Labor retain and has been removed from the table of membership changes inside the post.
  • Labor continues to lead in Kalgoorlie with the result to be determined by a distribution of preferences on Saturday 22 March.
  • Kalamunda has been won by the Liberal Party after a re-count.
  • Kalgoorlie – Labor wins after distribution of preferences.
  • Thornlie – Labor’s Colleen Egan wins easily, but Independent Kevin McDonald has come from fourth place on 10.2% of the vote to finish second after preferences. McDonald was the Liberal candidate for the seat in 2021.

Read More »2025 Western Australia Election – Lower House Results

2025 Western Australian Election Night Coverage

Here’s my usual message to cope with the large number of people directed to this blog by Google on election night.

I will not be providing election night commentary here. Instead I will be on the ABC’s live television coverage of the result. And you can follow the results themselves at ABC Elections.

My WA election guide is here. Results will be available through the site on the night.Read More »2025 Western Australian Election Night Coverage

WA2025 – Tracking the Early Voting Statistics

After a record early vote at the 2021 election, in large part driven by Covid, the rate of both pre-poll and postal voting have declined slightly at the 2025 election.

As of close of voting on Thursday 6 March –

  • a total of 557,693 Early votes have been cast representing 29.8% of enrolment
  • in 2021 the totals were 585,774 representing 34.1% of enrolment.
  • Early votes made up 40.2% of formal votes in 2021.
  • The final Friday saw a record 107,157 votes taken compared to 86,548 on the final day of pre-polling in 2021.
  • Around 215,000 postal vote applications were received, down on the number in 2021. As of Wednesday around 130,000 have been returned and are ready for counting on election night. The number of postal votes is well down on 2021 when there were 333,377 postal applications, 311,598 postal vote packs dispatched, and 246,120 returned, a return rate of 73.8%.
  • As percentages the postal applications were 19.4% in 2021 but the figure in 2025 is well down at 14.4%.

In 2025 Early voting is restricted to the two weeks before polling day. In 2021 there were an extra two days on the Friday and Saturday before the final two weeks. 94,379 Early votes were taken on these two days in 2021. There is no early voting on the first Monday in March public holiday. In 2021 the public holiday was two weeks before polling day. In 2025 it is one week before polling day on 3 March.

Graphs of Early voting by day and accumulated percentages are inside the post. I hope to have some information on postal voting next week.Read More »WA2025 – Tracking the Early Voting Statistics

WA 2025 – Summary of Parties and Candidates

Nominations closed yesterday for the Western Australian election. At this stage I have been unable get hold of the published data file of nominations but have been able to confirm the lower house numbers. I believe I have also sorted out the upper house numbers.

A total of 398 candidates have nominated for the lower house, the Legislative Assembly. There are four electorates with only four candidates (Cannington, Carine, Hillarys and Perth) and eight electorates with nine candidates (Albany, Bateman, Geraldton, Joondalup, Kalgoorlie, Kwinana, Nedlands and Southern River). This is down from 463 candidates in 2021.

I await formal confirmation but I understand the Legislative Council numbers are as follows. There are 148 candidates across 13 groups and an ungrouped column. This is well down on the 325 candidates that contested the upper house in 2021. New party registration rules mean there are fewer parties, and instead of nominating two candidates in each of six regions, parties need only nominate five candidates on the state-wide ballot for access to an above-the-line voting square on the ballot paper.

More on party affiliations and the candidate numbers inside the post. Read More »WA 2025 – Summary of Parties and Candidates

WA2025 – my guide to the 2025 Election has been published

A Federal election is looming over the political horizon, but before then (probably) there is a Western Australian election to be held on March 8.

My guide to the WA election has just been published at this link by the ABC.

The guide has the usual features, a preview, a profile page for each electorate including historic and electoral background, past results and profiles of candidates. There’s the usual site indexes by candidate name, by electorate name and margin. A Legislative Council preview and candidate listing will follow in the next few days.

Tomorrow I should also publish guides for the Victorian by-elections to be held in Prahran and Werribee on 8 February. I’ll be doing a full results service that evening. I also hope to have a Federal guide up by the end of this month.

Inside the post there’s a teaser to the WA guide preview.Read More »WA2025 – my guide to the 2025 Election has been published

Will Australia have its first February Election? And what about the WA Election Date?

Australia is the land of the long summer holiday and woe betide any Prime Minister announcing the start of an election campaign before Australia Day.

Australia has never held a Federal election in January or February.

In 2015 Campbell Newman unexpectedly announced an election date in the first week of the new year with polling day for 31 January. The unexpected announcement was followed by an unexpected defeat for the Newman government with the Premier losing his own seat.

Before that, Tasmania's Field minority Labor government announced an election date in early January 1992 with polling for 1 February. After a difficult three years in office, the Field government was defeated and replaced by a majority Liberal government.

February elections with campaigning through January used to be common in Western Australia with 9 of the 10 election dates between 1977 and 2005 being in February. This includes two on the first Saturday in February. After the 2008 election was called six months early for September, fixed terms were adopted with elections now held on the second Saturday in March every four years.

The next Western Australian election is set for Saturday 8 March. It is a date around which the Albanese government must navigate as options for changing the WA date are complex and require agreement from the Leader of the state Opposition.

And neither state nor federal leaders want to annoy voters by forcing them to the polls twice within a month. Given how reliant the Albanese government was on Western Australia to achieve majority government in 2022, the Prime Minister will be unusually attuned to the political mood of the west.

In 1983 Malcolm Fraser called a snap double dissolution election for 5 March. Western Australia was already in the middle of a state election campaign and polling days for the two elections were held a fortnight apart.

On 19 February 1983, Labor under Brian Burke swept to office. Two weeks later, Labor under Bob Hawke won the Federal election and recorded 55% of the two-party preferred in Western Australia. Labor didn't match that figure again until Anthony Albanese's victory in 2022.

In 1993, Labor under Premier Carmen Lawrence lost office at an election on 6 February. The result indicated that Labor's vote was holding up in the west. The next day Prime Minister Paul Keating called a Federal election for 13 March. An 'unlosable' election that Keating was to win against Dr John Hewson.

If WA Labor were to have a good state election result on 8 March, the fact that Easter is late in 2025 means the Prime Minister would have time to visit the Governor-General on 9 March and request an election for Saturday 12 April. It would mean abandoning the federal Budget currently scheduled for 25 March.

Or what if the Prime Minister were to call the election before Western Australia goes to the polls?

As I explain inside the post, that's where options to vary Western Australia's fixed term election date come into play.Read More »Will Australia have its first February Election? And what about the WA Election Date?