2022 New South Wales Senate Election

  • Re-elected 1 – Marise Payne (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 2 – Deborah O’Neill (Labor)
  • Re-elected 3 – Ross Cadell (National)
  • Re-elected 4 – Jenny McAllister (Labor)
  • Elected 5 – David Shoebridge (Greens)
  • Re-elected 6 – Jim Molan (Liberal)

Party Outcome: Labor (-1) Greens (+1). Within the Coalition ticket, the Nationals recover the seat lost to the Liberal Party during the 2017 citizenship drama.

A full table of first preference votes allocated to ticket votes and to individual candidates is included in the post. Some analysis of the preference flows will be included once the preference distribution report is released later today.
Read More »2022 New South Wales Senate Election

2022 Victorian Senate Election

  • Re-elected 1 – Sarah Henderson (Liberal)
  • Elected 2 – Linda White (Labor)
  • Re-elected 3 – Bridget McKenzie (National)
  • Re-elected 4 – Jana Stewart (Labor)
  • Re-elected 5 – Lidia Thorpe (Greens)
  • Elected 6 – Ralph Babet (United Australia Party)
  • Defeated – Greg Mirabella (Liberal)

Party Outcome: Coalition (-1), United Australia Party (+1).

A table of final first preferences is included inside this post along with an analysis of the distribution of preferences sheets.
Read More »2022 Victorian Senate Election

2022 Queensland Senate Election

  • Re-elected 1 – James McGrath (LNP)
  • Re-elected 2 – Murray Watt (Labor)
  • Re-elected 3 – Matt Canavan (LNP)
  • Elected 4 – Penny Allman-Payne (Greens)
  • Re-elected 5 – Pauline Hanson (One Nation)
  • Re-elected 6 – Anthony Chisholm (Labor)
  • Defeated – Amanda Stoker (LNP)

Party Summary: Greens (+1), LNP (-1).

A full table of first preference votes is included in the post as well as an analysis of the preference flows.

The critical point in the count was the exclusion of Clive Palmer (UAP). More than half of his preferences flowed to Pauline Hanson (ONP), allowing Hanson to open a wide lead over Amanda Stoker (LNP) in the contest for the third conservative seat.
Read More »2022 Queensland Senate Election

2022 SA Legislative Council Result

Update on when the count will finish – While the lower house count is complete, the time-consuming scanning of Legislative Council ballot papers takes time. The button push for the distribution of preferences is expected around the Anzac Day weekend.

Update: With every vote now counted, there are some slight changes to the partial quota values. One Nation is 0.51, Labor 0.42, LDP 0.39, Family First 0.37. I still stick to my view in the post that Labor’s position will improve with scrutiny of BTL votes, with preference flows from the Greens, Animal Justice and Legalise Cannabis, and with the general leakage of preferences to the larger parties. But there is a chance the gap could close if there are any significant preference flows between the LDP and Family First. And there is still a chance that order could alter.

Original Post Follows

With the lower house counts being finalised today, it is time to take a closer look at the upper house election for the Legislative Council (LC).

Almost all Legislative Council first preference votes have been counted. The process of scanning and data entering ballot papers is underway. Once that is completed, the distribution of preferences will be undertaken very quickly by computer.

Nine seats are clear, electing four Labor MLCs, four Liberals and one Green. The final two seats look likely to go a fifth Labor MLC and the state’s first One Nation MLC.

If the election finishes as set out in the previous paragraph, the new Legislative Council will be 9 Labor, 8 Liberal, 2 Greens, 2 SA Best and a One Nation member. Assuming Labor appoints a President, then Labor would need the votes of three of the five cross bench members to pass legislation.
Read More »2022 SA Legislative Council Result

Close of Nominations for the 2022 South Australian Election

Nominations closed today for the South Australian election. A total of 240 candidates have nominated for the House of Assembly with the ballot draw for all seats taking place today.

The ballot draw for the Legislative Council will be at noon on Tuesday 1 March. Details of the Council nominations will not be released until after the ballot draw. There are 19 groups contesting the Legislative Council and one ungrouped candidate. More details tomorrow.

You can find all lower candidates up on my ABC election site. Read More »Close of Nominations for the 2022 South Australian Election

2022 NSW By-elections – Tracking the Early Vote

The four NSW by-elections for Bega, Monaro, Strathfield and Willoughby are being conducted under rules where every voter is automatically being sent ballot papers in a postal vote pack.

You can find my guide to the by-elections at the ABC Elections site. Each page now includes candidate how-to-vote material.

In this post I will keep track of the number of pre-poll votes cast and the number of postal votes returned before polling day. As I explain inside this post, the rate of postal voting is certain to be very high given this automatic send out of postal vote packs. Voters can still vote pre-poll or vote on polling day, but many are certain to use the ballot papers sent to them.

Observation – In the final week of voting you would normally see a surge in pre-poll voting. That hasn’t happened with these by-elections. Pre-poll voting increased each day in week one of voting, but there has been no increase in the per day rate in week two. That voters were receiving postal vote packs last week has almost certainly caused some voters to use their postal vote rather than attend pre-polling. As polling day nears, the number of postals returned has begun to surge.

The rates of pre-poll and postal voting by Friday 11 February on the completion of pre-poll voting:
Bega – 29.4% of enrolled voters have cast a pre-poll and 21.3% returned a postal vote
Monaro – 23.1% of enrolled voters have cast a pre-poll and 15.3% returned a postal vote
Strathfield – 16.3% of enrolled voters have cast a pre-poll and 26.4% returned a postal vote
Willoughby – 9.6% of enrolled voters have cast a pre-poll and 28.1% returned a postal vote

Inside this post I breakdown the pre-polls and postals by electorate by day and compare them to the equivalent rates in 2019. I also explain the rules under which the election is being conducted, and also the changed counting procedures for the by-election.

Update on Counting Procedures – Postal votes envelopes will be processed in the week after the election, but there will be no counting of postal votes until Saturday 19 February.

It is important to stress that this all postal election is not available for the Federal election or the looming South Australian election. Both those elections will allow more voters to apply for postal votes, but full postal mail-outs aren’t an option for either election.
Read More »2022 NSW By-elections – Tracking the Early Vote

Federal Election Guide Published

It hasn’t had it’s formal launch yet, but my 2022 Federal Election Guide has been published by the ABC.

Here’s the link
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/preview-national

That’s the link to the overall election preview which includes links to a preview for the contest in each state.

At the top of the page are the usual links to Electorate and Candidate index pages. From these you can navigate to a profile for every electorate.

There’s more to be added to the site but this is a good start.Read More »Federal Election Guide Published