Update Tuesday 24 September – the redistribution has been finalised and all maps and data released.
Update Friday 22 November – I took a fine toothed comb to SA1s that were split or merged in the redistribution and have re-calculated margins. No major changes and the final estimates have been included in the table.
On Thursday 5 September, the Redistribution Committee for Western Australia released the state’s new Federal electoral boundaries. Draft boundaries were released in May and opened for public comment. This final version will be formally gazetted later this month and will be used for the first time at next year’s Federal election.
The redistribution has taken place to increase the number of WA federal divisions from 15 to 16.
The original post follows.
A new division called Bullwinkel has been created covering Perth’s outer east and the rural Avon Valley to the east. A map of the new electorate is included in this post. The name Bullwinkel honours Lieutenant Colonel Vivian Bullwinkel AO MBE ARRC ED FNM FRCNA (1915–2000), a civilian and military nurse who was the sole survivor of the 1942 Bangka Island massacre and a prisoner of war. The name recognises her dedication to honouring victims of war crimes, service to nursing, and the community, in both her civilian and military service. This electoral division name also honours the contribution of military medical personnel and recognises those who were prisoners of war.
The final boundaries have been released and involve only minor changes. These are –
- Waroona Shire remains in Canning where the draft moved it into Forrest.
- The suburb of Malaga remains in Cowan having originally been proposed for transfer to Hasluck.
- Part of Kardinya remains in Fremantle after having been proposed for transfer to Tangney.
- Part of Leeming proposed to be in Fremantle is now in Tangney.
These are very minor changes and the data files required to re-calculate margins will not be available for several weeks. I will update the post when they are available.
At this state the page and its included tables reflect the draft boundaries released earlier this year. I have noted where there are changes but doubt these will have any significant impact on the estimated new margins shown.
The political implications of the boundaries are –
- The new seat of Bullwinkel is a notional Labor seat using the unusually good Labor results at the 2022 federal election. At a more normal election, and without a sitting member, Bullwinkel will be very difficult seat for Labor to notionally retain.
- The creation of Bullwinkel results in a significant strengthening of Labor’s position in Hasluck, the Labor margin increasing from 6.0% to 10.0%.
- Curtin sees only a minor change to boundaries meaning the redistribution has no impact on Liberal attempts to defeat Independent Kate Chaney.
- Labor’s other marginal seats see only minor changes, Pearce’s Labor margin now 8.8%, Swan 9.4% and Tangney 2.9%.
- On paper the Liberal margin in Canning is reduced to 1.1% but sitting MP Andrew Hastie would only be in trouble if Labor had an increase in its vote compared to 2022, a scenario that does not seem likely.
- Moore remains a marginal seat, but less important than the redistribution is Ian Goodenough being replaced as Liberal candidate by Vince Connelly. If Goodenough were to re-contest as an Independent or National Party (one rumour) candidate, it would create a more complex contest.
| Labor | Liberal | Independent | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Old boundaries | 9 | 5 | 1 | 15 |
| New boundaries | 10 | 5 | 1 | 16 |
Based on the two-party preferred results, including the underlying Labor-Coalition nature of the Independent held seat of Curtin, the changes in two-party preferred holdings is –
- Old Boundaries 2PP: Labor 9, Liberal 6
- New Boundaries 2PP: Labor 10, Liberal 6
Tables summarising the impact of the redistribution on each seat is included inside the post.
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 16.7% | MP: Madeleine King (ALP) Strengthened slightly for Labor. Shrinks in area, losing the southern suburbs of Secret Harbour, Karnup, Golden Bay and Singleton to neighbouring Canning. |
| New: ALP 17.1% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: new seat | MP: New Seat See map and notes below. |
| New: ALP 3.3% |
The map below shows how the new seat of Bullwinkel has been created. In area most of the electorate is east of the Darling Range in the Avon Valley, areas taken from the rural electorates of Durack and O’Connor. However, only 13.6% of voters live at the rural end of the electorate. Most voters live in the metropolitan area with Bullwinkel deriving 48.7% of its electors from Hasluck, 22.0% from Swan, 9.4% from Canning and 6.4% from Burt.
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 15.2% | MP: Matt Keogh (Labor) Weakened for Labor. Loses Beckenham and Langford to Swan, and Orange Grove, Kelmscott and Mount Nasura to Bullwinkel, while extending south and gaining Oakford and parts of Byford from Canning. |
| New: ALP 13.3% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: LIB 3.6% | MP: Andrew Hastie (Liberal) Weakened for Liberal. Loses Roleystone and areas east of Armadale to the new seat of Bullwinkel. Loses Oakford and parts of Byford to Burt. Gains Secret Harbour, Golden Bay and Singleton in the southern part of Rockingham Council from Brand. (The ptoposed loss of Waroona Shire to Forrest was reversed on the final boundaries and may slightly increase the new margin shown below.) |
| New: LIB 1.2% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 10.8% | MP: Anne Aly (Labor) Weakened for Labor. In the east the suburbs of Noranda, Beechboro and Lockridge have been transferred to Hasluck. Cowan now extends north of Hepburn Avenue to include Wangara, Madeley, Darch and Landsdale from Pearce. (The transfer of Malaga to Hasluck was reversed on the final boundaries and this change is not reflected in the estimed new margin.) |
| New: ALP 9.9% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: IND 1.3% v LIB LIB 5.6% 2PP |
MP: Kate Chaney (Independent) Shrinks in area losing Karrinyup and Gwelup in the north to Moore. |
| New: IND 1.3% v LIB LIB 5.6% 2PP |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: LIB 4.3% | MP: Melissa Price (Liberal) Strengthened slightly for Liberal. Close to Perth Durack loses Toodyay, Northam and York to the new seat of Bullwinkel. Gains the wheatbelt shires between Cunderin, Merredin and Mount Marshall from O’Connor. |
| New: LIB 4.7% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: LIB 4.3% | MP: Nola Marino (Liberal – retiring). Weakened slightly for Liberal. Loses Donnybrook-Balingup Shire to O’Connor. (The transfer of Waroona Shire in the north from Canning was reversed on the final boundaries and is not reflected in the estimated new margin.) |
| New: LIB 4.2% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 16.9% | MP: Josh Wilson (Labor) Minor boundary adjustments with neighbouring Tangney. |
| New: ALP 16.9% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 6.0% | MP: Tania Lawrence (Labor) Significantly strengthened for Labor. Details and map below. |
| New: ALP 10.1% |
Undergoes major boundary changes. All the suburbs along the Great Eastern Highway east of Midvale along with Kalamunda and Lesmurdie are transferred to the new seat of Bullwinkel. Gains the eastern Perth suburbs of Eden Hill, Bassendean and Ashfield from Perth, and Noranda, Morley, Beechboro and Lockridge from Cowan. The map below shows Malaga being transferred to Hasluck but the final boundaries retained it in Cowan. The map and estimated new margin will be updated when details are available.
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: LIB 0.7% | MP: Ian Goodenough (Liberal – lost pre-selection) The new Liberal candidate for Moore is Vince Connelly, the former Liberal member for the abolished seat of Stirling 2019-2022.he Liberal MHR for the abolished seat of Stirling Vince Connelly. Goodenough has not ruled o0ut re-contesting as an Independent. Seat strengthened slightly for Liberal. Minor changes move the seat south, losing Burns Beach and Kinross in the north to Pearce while gaining Karrinyup and Gwelup from Curtin in the south. |
| New: LIB 0.9% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: LIB 7.0% | MP: Rick Wilson (Liberal) Weakened slightly for Liberal. Gains Donnybrook-Balingup from Forrest in the state’s south-west. Loses Beverly Shire to the new seat of Bullwinkel. Loses a number of wheatbelt shires between Cunderin and Merredin and north to Mount Marshall to Durack. |
| New: LIB 6.7% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 9.0% | MP: Tracey Roberts (Labor) Weakened slightly for Labor. An adjustment to southern boundary sees Wangara, Madeley, Darch and Landsdale transferred to Cowan while Burns Beach and Kinross are transferred from Moore. |
| New: ALP 8.8% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 14.8% | MP: Patrick Gorman (Labor) Weakened slightly for Labor. Loses Eden Hill, Bassendean and Ashfield to Hasluck as the Tonkin Highway becomes the division’s eastern boundary. |
| New: ALP 14.4% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 8.8% | MP: Zaneta Mascarenhas (Labor) Strengthened slightly for Labor. Loses areas east of Perth Airport including High Wycombe, Maida Vale and Forrestdale to the new seat of Bullwinkel. Gains Beckenham and Langford from Burt, and Wilson, Ferndale and Lynwood from Tangney. |
| New: ALP 9.4% |
| Margin | Notes |
|---|---|
| Old: ALP 2.4% | MP: Sam Lim (Labor) Strengthened slightly for Labor. Loses Wilson, Ferndale and Lynwood to Swan along with several minor boundary adjustments with Fremantle. |
| New: ALP 2.8% |