(Update – Three days after this post was published, Jacinta Allan was replaced as Premier by Ben Carroll. The post has been left as originally published.)
Victoria’s state election on 28 November will see voters pass judgment on Premier Jacinta Allen’s unpopular government and 12 years of Labor rule.
Most recent Victorian opinion polls reveal a three-way split of support between Labor, the Coalition and One Nation. Several have reported One Nation with the highest primary vote.
These are extra-ordinary polls in a state where two-party politics has traditionally been strongest and One Nation’s electoral support weakest.
One Nation’s poll ratings are also remarkable given the party has no state leader, no announced state policies, one upper house member and just one lower house candidate.
Were it not for other results this year, I would dismiss One Nation’s ratings as unlikely to hold until November, especially if it doesn’t hurry up and announce a leader.
But polls proved right in predicting One Nation would outpoll the Liberal Party at the South Australian election. The party polled well at the Nepean state by-election in May, and a week later matched expectations by easily winning the Farrer federal by-election.
If current polls prove correct, the result in November will have greater consequences for the course of national politics than any state election in my lifetime.
Australia’s two-sided party system has been around for more than a century. The two major parties have always clustered left and right of the centre. Smaller parties have come and gone, the most significant until now being the Greens who have staked out a significant base to the left of Labor.
Other prominent minor parties, like the DLP and Australian Democrats, lasted two decades and never built a base that could transmit loyalties to another generation. In retrospect, both were parties of transition, pathways for voters to change major party loyalty.
Until now, no new political entrant has threatened the foundations on which Australia’s two-party system is built. But the surge in One Nation support suggests the Coalition is in danger of being supplanted as Labor’s major opponent.
Is the Coalition about to fade away and be replaced by One Nation? Or will the Coalition and One Nation grow closer together and a new type of coalition emerge on the right?
It may sound odd to predict problems for the federal Coalition when it is a deeply unpopular Labor state government facing defeat in Victoria.
But if the Liberal-National Coalition cannot capitalise on Labor’s woes by winning majority government in Victoria, if it is forced into some governing arrangement with One Nation in a state where the party has previously barely rated, then there are consequences across the country.
It raises serious question about the Coalition’s future in states where One Nation has a stronger base. First cab off the rank will be the NSW election next March where optional preferential voting will magnify splits between the Coalition and One Nation.
Under optional preferential voting, parties can’t rely on voters to complete preference sequences. Especially if NSW Labor fills the airwaves with “Just Vote 1” messages. Many Coalition and One Nation voters will exhaust preferences and help deliver a comfortable majority to the Minns Labor government.
One Nation capturing the balance of power in Victoria will force some form of governing arrangement on the Liberal Party and (whatever remains of) the National Party. For the first time One Nation would have a say on who governs a state and how.
To date One Nation has been a powerless crossbench upper house party that chucks metaphorical rocks at government. It will need to learn new ways to behave if the election result draws it closer to the levers of government. Chucking rocks becomes a dangerous pastime from inside the glasshouse of government.
Plus One Nation has a terrible record of keeping its elected members within the party. If instability were to strike while One Nation filled a starring or support role in Victorian government, every failing of the party would be highlighted across the nation by its political opponents.
I’ve seen the pressure of governing splinter third parties before. At the 1996 New Zealand election, a similar populist party to One Nation, Winston Peters’ New Zealand First, won the balance of power. After weeks of negotiation, the party joined with National to form government. Over the next three years New Zealand First splintered, popular slogans mugged by the reality of governing. Its more sensible members were lured away by its coalition partner, the less sensible ostracised.
If the polls prove right, converting a three-way split of primary votes into seats in parliament has a range of possible outcomes. Some could produce a majority Coalition government. If not a majority, the question will be how far short of majority the Coalition finishes and whether a government supported by One Nation is possible.
The Decline of Two-Party Politics
The chart below shows the support for Labor, the Coalition parties, and a generic ‘Other’, at Victorian lower house elections since 1982. ‘Other’ includes the Greens, but I have included a separate line for the Greens to highlight that most third party growth over the last decade has been for non-Green parties.
The above chart is the same pattern we have seen at Federal elections, a steady decline in support for both major parties. The trend has gone further at Federal elections with major party support dropping below two-thirds in 2025 and ‘Others’ outpolling the Coalition.
The most recent Victorian growth in ‘other’ support has been from the plethora of minor parties contesting lower house seats to boost chances of winning in the upper house. The number of non-Green ‘other’ candidates rose from 95 in 2002 to 474 in 2022, from 25% of candidates to 64%.
With One Nation polling 27%, the total Other vote will pass 40% in 2026 and easily outperform both Labor and the Coalition.
Despite its current absence of candidates, Pauline Hanson has stated that One Nation will contest all 88 lower house seats.
Which diminishes the usefulness of the traditional electoral pendulum I include at the end of this post. In case you don’t want to read that far, you can find an easily printable one-page .pdf pendulum at this link.
Three-Party Politics and Preferences
The South Australian election in March has already revealed what surging support for One Nation can achieve. One Nation outpolled the Liberal Party 22.9% to 18.9% though a more concentrated Liberal vote delivered the party five seats to One Nation’s four.
Only 13 of the 47 SA seats finished as traditional Labor-Liberal contests. The Liberal Party led the primary vote in only six seats, was placed second on primaries in 12 seats, third in 15, fourth in 12 and fifth in two seats. The Liberal primary vote fell to single digits in 13 Adelaide seats.
One Nation led on first preferences in the four seats it won and finished second in 29 districts. One Nation support passed 30% in nine seats, 25% in 20.
Labor easily topped the primary vote in 35 seats, winning 34. Labor won a handsome victory, One Nation and the Liberal Party left squabbling over the spoils of opposition.
Victoria will be very different. SA Premier Peter Malinauskas led an enormously popular first term Labor government. Victoria’s Jacinta Allen trails as preferred Premier and leads an unpopular third term Labor government. Labor is equal with two opponents in Victorian polls, not far ahead as in South Australia.
A recent Redbridge poll with Labor and Liberal equal on 26% and One Nation on 27% also had the Greens on 13%. We know that the preferences of Green voters consistently flow to Labor at around 85% in the seats that matter. On that basis it is better to view Labor as polling higher than its first preference result.
The lesson from South Australia is that preference flows between One Nation and the Liberal Party are weaker than between Labor and the Greens. Despite a recommendation, Liberal preferences flowed only around 65% to One Nation. Despite no recommendation, One Nation preferences were around 70% to Liberal.
But unless something goes very right for Labor, the party’s fallback election strategy will be to retain as many seats as possible to be a strong opposition with a path back to power in 2030.
It may sound absurd, but comparing the Brumby Labor government’s unexpected defeat in 2010 with the Allan government’s expected defeat in 2026 has some lessons for Labor from what happened afterwards.
Labor went into opposition in 2010 with a big caucus and an experienced frontbench against an inexperienced and somewhat directionless government with emerging internal divisions.
Labor’s best hope for the 2026 election will be to maximise its numbers in opposition. If Labor is replaced by a minority Coalition government, with or without support from One Nation on the crossbenches, then Labor’s prospects for a one term recovery would be boosted.
No one in Canberra would admit it, but defeat for Labor in Victoria would also boost prospects for the Albanese government’s re-election.
Victoria’s Regional Seats
To borrow an AFL meme, the Liberal and National Parties difficulty in winning Victorian elections this century comes down to the Kennett Curse. The 1999 election saw a premier confident of victory, dismissive of regional complaints about being Melbourne-centric, and running a bandwagon campaign as against the normal Australian tactic of vying for underdog status.
The results upended Victoria’s traditional political alignments with Steve Bracks leading Labor to office on the back of unprecedented swings in rural areas and regional cities.
Since 1999, Labor has had a lock on seats around Bendigo, Ballarat and Geelong at both state and federal elections. The map of 2022 results below has a block of safe red and marginal light red seats in western Victoria, a band of Labor seats that didn’t exist before 1999.
Three decades of experience tells us that One Nation’s support will be stronger in non-metropolitan seats. In South Australia One Nation polled 20.8% in Adelaide and 27.8% in regional areas.
In Victoria the Coalition will face threats from One Nation in the arc of blue and green seats around the edge of the state. Labor’s vote could disappear in many of these seats leaving the Liberals and National in direct competition with One Nation. There will also be Independents in some seats, most notably in the state’s north-east where there is an Independent base around the federal seat of Indi.
The real test will be the band of Labor seats surrounding Ballarat and Bendigo, including the Premier’s own seat of Bendigo East (10.8%). She faces a strong challenger in Andrew Lethlean who came close to winning the federal seat of Bendigo at the 2025 federal election.
Closer to Melbourne, urban fringe seats like Melton in the west and Bass and Hastings in the south-east will be closely watched. But beyond these seats, the Coalition’s quest for majority government will turn on the battle for suburban Melbourne.
Melbourne Seats
Standing out on the metropolitan area map is the light green patch of Labor-Green contests in central Melbourne. Brunswick, Melbourne and Richmond are currently held by the Greens, Footscray, Northcote, Pascoe Vale and Preston by Labor. From 2010 to 2018 the Liberal Party recommended preferences to Labor ahead of the Greens before switching to list the Greens ahead in 2022. The Liberal decision on which way to recommend preferences could decide these seats. Which party left-wing voters view as better to defeat One Nation could also be important.
Outside of the green coloured seats, everything north and west of the Yarra is coloured light or dark red. The Liberal Party has not won a seat north or west of the Yarra this century. That’s 27 of the state’s 88 lower house seats.
There were big swings against Labor in western Melbourne in 2022. Western seats had lingering resentment over Covid lockdowns, the region’s occupational breakdown making work from home less an option. There remain perceptions that Labor has spent more on removing level crossings and upgrading rail services to the city’s south-east than it has spent in Melbourne’s west. Outer west and northern Labor seats like Melton (4.6%), Sunbury (6.4%), Werribee (10.9%), Point Cook (8.3%), Yan Yean (4.3%) and Eltham (9.0%) would be most at risk.
The Liberal Party failed to win last year’s Werribee by-election and has bickered over who should hold the winnable western Melbourne upper house seat when winning lower house seats is more important. The Federal Liberal Party did not make the predicted inroads in the western Melbourne seats of Gorton and Hawke at the 2025 election.
The biggest swings to One Nation at the South Australian election were in some of Adelaide’s safest Labor seats. Will this be repeated west of the Yarra, or will the much greater concentration of voters from non-English speaking background block One Nation advances?
Eastern Melbourne was once a sea of Liberal blue, but in 2022 Labor won six of the area’s 13 seats. All could be lost in 2026. The eastern Labor seats are Ashwood (6.2%), Bayswater (4.2%), Box Hill (7.2%), Glen Waverley (3.3%), Ringwood (7.5%) and Monbulk (7.6%). It is a sign of the Liberal Party’s failed 2022 campaign that Labor retained these seats.
To show how far politics has shifted since 2010 and 2014, the four Frankston line seats that decided both elections now sit safely on Labor’s side of the electoral pendulum. Running outwards these are Bentleigh (8.0%), Mordialloc (8.2%), Carrum (9.8%) and Frankston (8.7%).
In Melbourne’s outer south-east, Pakenham (0.4%), Hastings (1.4%) and Bass (0.2%) look set to be among Labor’s first losses.
How useful is the Electoral Pendulum?
Treating all margins as reliable, the Liberal and National parties need to gain 16 seats on a uniform swing of 7.6% for majority government. That’s assuming the Coalition does not lose any seats to One Nation or Independents.
To show the complexity of predicting election these days, the top of the pendulum includes several seats that depart from two-party contests. There are four marginal Labor seats where the Greens are Labor’s main opponent. The top three seats on the Coalition side were narrow wins against Independents. And based on Independent challenges in 2022, it would only take a few hundred extra votes for Independents to defeat former Liberal Leader John Pesutto in Hawthorn and current Leader Jess Wilson in Kew. A higher Liberal vote would make Independent wins in either seat more difficult.
Any surge in One Nation support carries danger for both sides at the bottom of the pendulum where the major parties’ safest seats lie.
Coalition seats above 8% would be at risk from One Nation, and every seat the Coalition parties lose to One Nation is another seat they need to gain from Labor for majority government.
The evidence from South Australia is that Labor is at greatest risk from One Nation in safe seats rather than marginals. The biggest swings against Labor at the SA election were in Labor’s safe working class northern Adelaide seats.
It could be a repeat performance in Labor seats above 10% in Victoria, especially in outer Melbourne seats in the north and west. Seats with a higher proportion of residents from a non-English speaking background would be less vulnerable.
The more seats One Nation wins, the less likely either side of politics can achieve majority government. Concentration of support and Green preferences may deliver Labor more seats than some predict.
The big question is what happens if One Nation wins lower house seats and the Liberal and National parties fall short of majority government.
Can they negotiate an agreement for government? Can such an agreement last four years as is now required with fixed term parliaments?
And how might One Nation entering a governing arrangement be viewed interstate, especially if it comes apart mid-term?
You can find an easily printable one-page .pdf pendulum at this link.
| Labor (56 seats) | Liberal/National (20/9 seats) | ||
| ALP 0.2 | Bass | LIB 0.7 | Mornington (v IND) |
| ALP 0.2 | Northcote (v GRN) | LIB 0.9 | Benambra (v IND) |
| ALP 0.4 | Pakenham | NAT 1.2 | Mildura (v IND) |
| ALP 1.4 | Hastings | LIB 1.3 | Prahran (v GRN) (By-elec) |
| ALP 2.0 | Pascoe Vale (v GRN) | LIB 1.4 | Croydon |
| ALP 2.1 | Preston (v GRN) | LIB 1.7 | Hawthorn |
| ALP 3.0 | Ripon | LIB 1.8 | Polwarth |
| ALP 3.3 | Glen Waverley | LIB 2.1 | Caulfield |
| ALP 4.2 | Bayswater | LIB 3.7 | Rowville |
| ALP 4.2 | Footscray (v GRN) | LIB 4.0 | Kew |
| ALP 4.3 | Yan Yean | LIB 4.3 | Warrandyte |
| ALP 4.6 | Melton | NAT 4.4 | Morwell |
| ALP 6.2 | Ashwood | LIB 4.7 | Berwick |
| ALP 6.4 | Sunbury | LIB 5.0 | Sandringham |
| ALP 6.7 | Niddrie | LIB 5.1 | Brighton |
| ALP 7.1 | Greenvale | LIB 5.4 | Evelyn |
| ALP 7.2 | Eureka | LIB 5.9 | Bulleen |
| ALP 7.2 | Box Hill | LIB 6.4 | Nepean |
| ALP 7.5 | Ringwood | NAT 6.8 | Shepparton (v IND) |
| ALP 7.6 | Monbulk | LIB 7.0 | Eildon |
| ALP 8.0 | Bentleigh | LIB 8.0 | South-West Coast |
| ALP 8.2 | Mordialloc | LIB 8.1 | Malvern |
| ALP 8.3 | Narre Warren South | NAT 9.9 | Euroa (NAT) |
| ALP 8.3 | Point Cook | LIB 13.1 | Narracan (v IND) |
| ALP 8.5 | Bellarine | NAT 15.6 | Gippsland South (NAT) |
| ALP 8.7 | Frankston | NAT 17.8 | Ovens Valley (NAT) |
| ALP 8.7 | Narre Warren North | NAT 21.6 | Lowan (NAT) |
| ALP 8.8 | Sydenham | NAT 23.4 | Murray Plains (NAT) |
| ALP 9.0 | Cranbourne | NAT 24.6 | Gippsland East (NAT) |
| ALP 9.0 | Eltham | ||
| ALP 9.5 | Macedon | Greens (3 seats) | |
| ALP 9.6 | St Albans | GRN 7.3 | Richmond (v ALP) |
| ALP 9.8 | Carrum | GRN 10.2 | Melbourne (v ALP) |
| ALP 9.8 | South Barwon | GRN 13.7 | Brunswick (v ALP) |
| ALP 10.2 | Clarinda | ||
| ALP 10.2 | Mulgrave | ||
| ALP 10.8 | Bendigo East | ||
| ALP 10.9 | Werribee | ||
| ALP 11.2 | Albert Park | ||
| ALP 11.6 | Mill Park | ||
| ALP 11.9 | Wendouree | ||
| ALP 12.3 | Tarneit | ||
| ALP 12.5 | Essendon | ||
| ALP 12.7 | Bundoora | ||
| ALP 12.8 | Ivanhoe | ||
| ALP 13.4 | Williamstown | ||
| ALP 13.5 | Oakleigh | ||
| ALP 14.5 | Kororoit | ||
| ALP 14.6 | Bendigo West | ||
| ALP 14.7 | Geelong | ||
| ALP 15.5 | Broadmeadows | ||
| ALP 15.8 | Thomastown | ||
| ALP 15.9 | Lara | ||
| ALP 16.5 | Kalkallo | ||
| ALP 18.3 | Dandenong | ||
| ALP 18.4 | Laverton | ||
If current trends continue then that is the most likely result of a One Nation and Liberal government. I don’t see a One Nation and Liberal government lasting full term and wouldn’t be surprised if the government collapses within 6 months into the term. I don’t think there will be a uniform swing like we saw in 2022, we could see a continuation of that election whereby Labor holds the Eastern Melbourne Clay Wall seats it picked up in 2022 but is defeated in its own backyard. One thing is for sure we are going to see some weird results and candidates getting really low primary vote and heavily relying on preferences.
COMMENT: The interesting thing is if a government forms but falls apart in office, it is very difficult to get a new election. The fixed term parliament procedures require the ‘baton change’ procedures would have to be invoked. If a vote of no confidence lodged with 3 days notice is passed in the Premier, there is a period of 8 days in which the motion of confidence can be passed in the Premier or in a new Premier. If this is not done, at that point the Governor is permitted to accept advice to dissolve the Parliament for a new election. The whole process would take at least a fortnight.
From looking at your comprehensive report the steep decline of the combined 2 party primary vote and only a 70% at best flow of preferences between Liberal and One Nation candidates along with the widely differing demographics in the regions, inner suburbs, Outer suburbs and Northern and Western suburbs indicate that statewide opinion polls are likely to be a much less reliable predictor of an overall result in the lower house than ever before.
Are any opinion polls likely to be done on a individual seat by seat basis during the Victorian state election campaign as it seems the election result in the lower house is going to come down to where votes are cast rather than each party’s total statewide percentage share of the Primary vote in the lower house.
Or could a statewide opinion poll given voter intention by age, income levels and gender be a predictor of individual seat results by allowing for the demographics of each individual seat?
In these times of declining trust of politicians it is more important than ever that the number of lower house seats each party wins at least broadly reflects their statewide primary vote. If democracy, politics and elections are really about every vote having an equal value and that the candidates elected represent the will of the electorate as a whole maybe it is time to start to consider the ditching of single member electorates and bringing in a single multi member proportional representation electorate where a candidate needs to win a quota to be elected. Given the collapse of the primary vote of the LNP and Alp no party would have a majority of the vote so the most democratic option could be to have a unicameral parliament like in New Zealand and Queensland perhaps?
COMMENT: Parties do some polling targeted at individual seats. Public polls are now almost all done on-line based on panels of voters. It is nearly impossible to have enough people from one seat to get a decent sample. Some larger polls may be broken down to a band of marginal seats but not individual seats. You might see some random call polls published for individual seats but they do not have a good record.
Seat by seat polls have a history of unreliability compared to national / state polls, as in order to get them right you have to know what the make up is of a given seat and then ensure the polling is representative of that make up – very very few seats are homogenous. National / state polls don’t need to get this right – small errors in one part are cancelled out by opposing errors in other parts of the sample, and we’ve got years of data to back up the overall methods.
I recall the Northcote by election some years ago where two polls picked a 5% Labor majority, but the results on the day were a 6% Green majority – four times the margin of error in difference between the results. This is not even unusual when looking at other seat polls.
No one in Canberra would admit it, but defeat for Labor in Victoria would also boost prospects for the Albanese government’s re-election.
In what way?
COMMENT: Labor holds a lot of Federal seats in Victoria. The removal of an unpopular Victorian Labor government would aid Labor in holding its Federal seats. There are numerous examples of unpopular state government dragging down the fortunes of their federal brethren.
Hi Antony, It was very widely reported that the unpopular Labor government and Premier in Victoria would lead to Labor performing badly in Victoria at last year’s Federal election yet the reverse happened and they picked up Menzies, Deakin and Melbourne.
COMMENT: Having had some briefings during the campaign on polling, Labor’s expected loss of Victorian seats faded away as polling day approached. The same trend seen elsewhere that led to Labor winning with a significant increase in seats.
If anything, a coalition coalition government between One Nation and the Liberals would probably hurt One Nation as much as it helps Labor. Why? Aside from some individual members like Barnaby Joyce, One Nation has never been in government. Who knows how they will behave when they have to initiate policy instead of criticize them. Also it will depend on how many seats the Liberals get versus One Nation and in what order. Does One Nation accept ministries or do they just do a confidence and supply agreement? If they come in first in primaries and seats whom do they nominate as Premier? I think One Nation may prefer to act like the Nats in the Coalition and let established Liberal MPs front government. ‘
‘Also the campaigns will tell us a lot – while Allen and the government are unpopular overall, that doesn’t mean that everything that they have done is unpopular. They will be sure to highlight the policies that people may like individually and it will be interesting to see how One Nation responds to that.
When did the definition of marginal change from +/-5% to +/-8%?
Also, how much impact will there be from the introduction of longer trains and level crossing removals on the Melton line? That’s expected to open in September 2026, so maybe too close to the election to have enough of an impact especially if there are any teething issues?
COMMENT: The accepted definition for marginal is 6%. The uniform swing for a Coalition victory is 7.6% and using 8% on the map highlighted the seats needed. That’s if there is still such a thing as a uniform swing.
I’m fascinated by the upcoming Victorian election because nobody can predict the outcome with any certainty, even this close to the election. It could result in a majority Labor or Coalition government. It could also be a minority government involving the Coalition and One Nation, One Nation and the Coalition, or Labor and the Greens. Or perhaps nobody will be able to form government. Maybe the Coalition decides to govern as a minority, with One Nation guaranteeing supply.
Normally would say it will be a normal protest vote that maybe and only maybe gets the coalition across the line with heavy one nation support
However something odd has been happening in the population, they are rejecting political traditions, and swarming towards one nation
I predict a great reset in Victorian voting and regional will abandon labour where as the western suburbs will only have cool mild support for labour due to need to support labour against the rise of one nation, eastern suburbs having a heavy swing towards labour
This could be the result of disillusionment with constant political party games and behaviour of labour and coalition parties
We might have had a hint of this with the earlier move towards teal politician’s that only ended up benefiting the Labour Party, perhaps because it did benefit labour it triggered a more radical rush towards one nation as people grew frustrated.
Another reason could be the law forcing people to vote that created lazy visionless parties and leaders instead of a voluntary voting system that would trigger appealing to voters and explosion of ideas and visions to temp voters, without it and only having compulsory voting it creates a type of party and voter malaise, then as people grow more frustrated and hateful they turn more radical looking for people to listen to them
So I would predict that in Victoria labour will be reduced to a minor party slightly larger or equal to the greens, resentment so great that even the party infrastructure heavily damaged resulting on wether a Labour Party is sustainable or not in Victoria or it should rebrand itself for the Victorian state
This could potentially be larger than the Kennett landslide in the vic elections
The coalition will ride the wave of one nation votes and one nation itself will enter the vic parliament as a minor or major party supporting the coalition
The only issue is wether the teal politicians are still attractive to voters as a frustration vote, they could expand and strengthen or voters shift their frustration completely to one nation to get a better result
If more damaging news comes out about labour in Victoria then it will only get worse
I believe any seat under 10% could be in danger for both parties. ONP will create some weird contests for sure. The one thing we are seeing globally is that the far right populist parties lose their gloss very quickly. Reform in the UK are slipping. MAGA is dragging the republicans vote down.
Im curious about the role of the greens and also ‘teals’. id imagine that a reduction of the lab vote would lead to a higher green vote, especially given how green victoria is already? would a green/lab coalition be possible?
COMMENT: With the exception of Prahran, I think all possible Green gains are currently Labor held. Labor would have to minimise the number of losses to the Coalition and One Nation to raise the prospect of a Labor-Greens Coalition.
What would be interesting is if Labor plus the Greens won more seats than the Coalition but was still short of a majority. That would mean the Coalition plus One Nation could form government but might have to argue to the Governor they had some level of support. from One Nation.
Hi Antony,
Just a comment on your maps.
I am colourblind and find the colours used for National and Labor <8% to be completely indistinguishable.
As more parties need to be represented, or vote share displayed, please take the time to ensure everyone is equally able to see what the map is showing.
Thanks.
Surely this is all contingent on ON selection of a Vic Leader. ON vote could increase dramatically?
COMMENTS: Depends who the leader is.
Thoughts on Benambra with retiring LNP Bill Tilly?
COMMENTS: One of my intentions in retiring was no longer doing seat by seat guides. Independents have shaken the seat at the last two elections. It sits in the middle of the Independent held Federal seat of Indi. I can’t comment on Independents that are popping up in the seat, but with Tilley retiring, it is clearly a seat that could be a challenge for the Liberal Party.
I wonder if independents could be a wildcard here. If high quality tealish independents stand, people who would normally vote Labor but are unhappy with its recent performance might take their vote to an independent. Independents could also collect votes from small l Libs who want climate action and a more constructive approach to Treaty. All protest vote won’t necessarily go to One Nation.
COMMENT: Talk of Independents only matters if you name the seat and the candidate. There is no vote for a generic Independent. People vote for party candidates based on the party name, but they vote for Independents based on who the candidate is. I’m not seeing a lot of Independent names yet.
Therein lies part of the problem for ON. It is “Pauline Hanson’s One nation Party”. People want to vote for Pauline, not some Vic leader they have never heard of.
COMMENT: Let’s see who the Leader is first.
There are a few factors that are worth considering in terms of what youve said.
The main one being that polling becomes more representative of voting intention as the election approaches. In the last federal election Dutton was polling very well 4 months out, but that changed quite dramatically as people turned their attention to politics. There is a great deal of assumption placed on current polling, but the high rates of “other” and low committment to stated preferences indicates that is unwarranted.
This election is going to be contested on policy that is strongly differentiated in appeal by age group. Young voters are the least engaged and least likely to have a committed position. A situation that is likely to play in Labor’s favour when the Liberal anti housing policies are accounted for. This is the dominant issue for the youth vote.
The other is that the coalition’s apparent need for one nation backing to form government will be a potent tool for Labor to campaign on.
I would love to see a seat by seat monte carlo model of Victoria. It could be quite informative in light of the difficulty in predicting 3 cornered contests.
In reply to Lilah. If the next government of Victoria is a Liberal-One Nation coalition, it is sure to be a dysfunctional shambles. The Victorian Libs can’t get on amongst themselves, never mind with members of ON. The newly elected members of ON will have zero political or parliamentary experience. There is no chance of such a coalition competently governing the state of Victoria.
The parliament will descend onto chaos, and the government bureaucracies and government-run enterprises might also descend into chaos. If that happens it will be good for the Federal Labor Government. I predict that if a Lib-ON coalition does form government in Victoria, then Albanese will call an early election in 2027.
COMMENT: Late 2027 maybe. There cannot be a half-Senate election before August 2027. The government won’t call a separate House election in early 2027 as it would produce a separate half-Senate election in early 2028.
Any suggestion of strong community independents and what their role might be? Federally we had the teals making a good showing, even in Wannon strong showing from an independent. The four parties mentioned all seem fairly lacklustre.
COMMENT: There are a few which will impact selected seats but not nearly enough to impact the overall picture of a three-sided contest.
The fall’s election might be when the dog catches the car for One Nation. Current polling suggests that if the election were to be held tomorrow they would not be able to form government outright. They may be able to form government with the Liberals. Or the Nats without the Liberals? It is a strange time. Could we have a three way government? Could the Nats leave the coalition and government could be Liberal-ON? I have a hard time believing, save an outright majority, One Nation would want to nominate the Premier. I am not even sure that they would want ministers. That would mean they would have to propose legislation. I could see them accepting a confidence and supply agreement to prop up a minority Coalition government (and I use the term Coalition with a large C while coalition coalition is something of a three way oy…) where they can influence policy without the responsibility.
It is beginning to feel like one of those old cognitive tests: Which one doesn’t belong?
Antony, I believe a lot will also depend on whether the Victorian Liberals can avoid more messy infighting in the lead-up. They seem to be still very riven by factionalism, as there is a strong element wanting to drag the party towards a MAGA-style stance, and the other element which is sane. Jess Wilson seems to be presiding over a truce at the moment, but it looks very shaky. The LP as a whole seems to have a death wish which manifests itself at inopportune moments.
Another spectacular own-goal like the Deeming business (ongoing? Perhaps…) and they are dead in the water, pretty much no matter how on the nose the Labours are. My own prediction, for what it’s worth, is that ON will gut the Nationals seats and pick up some Labor seats, but between them the LP, NP, and ON will not quite cross the line.
As far as ON goes, as you point out, their stability is questionable and they also have a pretty bad track record at picking candidates. And for the Nats…well, realistically, who cares?
Antony, sorry I know you’re retired but what do you think are the most likely seats One Nation will pick up? Do you see them gaining roughly 6-8 seats (maybe a few off libs, but predominantly outer suburban electorates disillusioned by Labor)?
COMMENT: I suspect One Nation will get a lot of second place results and not many wins. The seats they won in SA were all odd cases-Hammond, a marginal Liberal seat where the Liberals ran thirdMacKillop where the former Liberal MP re-contested and split the Liberal voteNarungga where the sitting MP was an ex-Liberal Independent Ngadjuri, a marginal Liberal seat where the Liberal slipped to third.
So One Nation are yet to win a Labor seat. It could happen in Victoria because the Labor vote will be lower, but that also means the Liberal vote will be higher. One Nation was leading the Liberal Party on primaries in SA but the Coalition lead both Labor and One Nation in Victoria. The obvious seats that people talk of are Melton, Sunbury, Pakenham, but One Nation’s problem is that they need the Liberals to be third to win seats and that might not happen in the more obvious seats named.
If the Coalition is to work with One Nation they will need to lose their “moderates”. This may actually help remind the Liberal party what they are supposed to represent – Conservative values and liberty. As long as Labor doesn’t get elected most Victorians will be happy.
Going on Qld experince, dont ON preference kinda favour the party the trationally holds seat … ie, neither favouring Lib or Labor. How does that effect preditions for Vic. Isnt it likely to.make scant impact and it will be a LNP majority.
COMMENT: We have more recent data from the SA election which I believe will be more relevant. You can find information on SA references towards the end of this post.
I never considered a Jacinta Allen led government legitimate…the electorate voted for an Andrews led government.
We are seeing democracies, in the West, crumbling… especially liberal democracies.
Political parties don’t have a vision to sell anymore… their selling points at election is as simple as “we’re not the other mob”?
What is the vision for Australia? And what is the electorate thinking? “The U.S voted for a disruptor… Trump…I know we’ll do the same”!
It’s up to a leader to sell a vision…draw a picture for the little child…then sell it and follow through if elected.
If you take the seat of Essendon the quality and quantity of people vying for the seat is a big increase on the last election so expect Labor vote to decline and the seat to be decided on preferences.
I also know that a number of canditates are woking together to unseat the new Labor candidate (sitting member is retiring) as they can smell a change in government. This didn’t happen in the last 3 or 4 elections
In the recent SA election the Liberals were smashed in the City. One Nation picked up 4 seats all in the country. If we get the same result in Victoria the ALP will be returned with a reduced majority and the Liberals and Nationals will loose seats to One Nation. In George Megalogenis’ book “Three Shocks… Who are we becoming in the 21st Century” is an interesting look at the changing demographics of Australia.
What is clear the Liberal and National Parties are a party that is heading for the history books.