The Record of Late-Term Succession Premiers

Multi-term periods of party government in Australia have usually come to be associated with the leader that brought the party to office. We often call these periods of government eras.

The less common type of era is multi-term governments with the same Prime Minister or Premier from first election to defeat. In this category we have the Fraser era (Fed 1975-83), the Howard era (Fed 1996-2007) and the Kennett era (Victoria 1992-1999).

One term government don’t qualify for eras so there is no Steven Marshall era (SA 2018-22) or Campbell Newman era (QLD 2012-15).

Some eras become associated with more than one leader, such as the Hawke-Keating era (Fed 1983-1996). Some of the long periods of post-war party government, such as Labor in NSW and Tasmania, or several times in Queensland, never attract the name of a single Premier.

The Menzies era (1949-1972) is different simply because of how long Menzies served as Prime Minister. He was succeeded by three Prime Ministers of diminishing stature before the Coalition lost office two elections after his retirement.

The current leadership ructions in the Victorian Labor Party ahead of a likely defeat in November fits the long-term pattern of Australian elections. Parties that come to power under one Premier who wins re-election at least once, is often succeeded by a new Premier, sometimes several, who lead the party to defeat.

The current period of Labor government in Victoria will be remembered by history as the Andrews era, whoever leads the party to probable defeat in November. Daniel Andrews led Labor to office in 2014 and won landslide re-elections in 2018 and 2022 before resigning two years ago. His indelible mark remains on the current government.

If Jacinta Allan is deposed this week, it will be one of the latest in term change of leader before an election. Julia Gillard became leader on 24 June 2010 and called an election for 21 August, 58 days. When Kevin Rudd returned as Prime Minister on 27 June 2013, he lost the election called for 7 September which was 72 days. These two changes took place in the first and second term of a government and are not relevant for comparison with longer term governments.

Among short term state Premiers, Russell Cooper became National Premier of Queensland 73 days before losing the 1989 election. Eric Willis became NSW Premier on 23 Januay 1976 and called an election for 1 May, a little over three months in office at the end of 11 years of Coalition government. Steven Miles took over as Queensland Premier a little over 10 months before an election was due.

SA Premier Rob Kerin took over as SA Premier after John Olsen resigned and just five months before losing the March 2002 election. Des Corcoran could have been in office longer after taking over from Don Dunstan but called a snap election for September 1979, just seven months into office. Eva Lawler became NT Chief Minister in 2024 eight months before an election and lost.

If Ben Carroll or someone else takes over before the election, it will be a rare case of three Premiers in a single term or Parliament. It happened in Queensland 1986-1989) with Joh Bjelke-Petersen, Mike Ahern and Russell Cooper, and NSW 1973-76 with Bob Askin, Tom Lewis and Eric Willis. There another in NSW 2007-2011 (Morris Iemma, Nathan Rees, Kristina Keneally) and the Northern Territory 2020-2024 (Michael Gunner, Natasha Fyles, Eva Lawler). All four of these government were defeated.

(Someone pointed out another three leader term. Northern Territory 1983-87 with Chief Ministers Paul Everingham, Ian Tuxworth and Steve Hatton.)

Let me me walk down memory lane and look at the record of ‘era’ governments and how they so often come to an inglorious end under a new leader.

Victoria

The term ‘Dunstan era’ is forever associated with a later South Australian Premier, but Victoria has its own Dunstan era, named after Albert Arthur Dunstan, one of Victoria’s longest serving Premiers. He was Premier for 10 years between 1935 and 1945, apart from 4 days in 1943 when he was briefly replaced by a Labor government. As a minority Country Party government, usually with the fewest seats in Parliament, Dunstan’s greatest achievement was simply to survive in office. It was a period of marking time rather than doing anything. Dunstan was followed by a chaotic period of seven governments in 10 years.

The Bolte era began when the great Labor split occurred and Henry Bolte led the Liberal Party to victory in 1955. To everyone’s surprise at the time, he served a record term before retiring in 1972, handing over to Rupert “Dick” Hamer. There were another three Liberal victories before Hamer was pushed aside in 1981 as the government slid into somnolence. Ten months later Lindsay Thompson oversaw the end of 27 years of Liberal government.

The Cain era began at the 1982 election when John Cain Junior led Labor to office for the first time since his father’s brief spells in office between 1943 and 1955. The revelations of financial disasters while in office saw Joan Kirner replace Cain in 1990 for the last two years of Labor in office. It ended with a landslide defeat and Jeff Kennett elected to office leading the first Victorian Coalition government in 40 years. (Bolte and Hamer led Liberal-only governments.)

Kirner was only the second woman to head an Australian state government after Carmen Lawrence in WA. Like Lawrence, Kirner was seen as a woman brought in to clean up the mess left by the blokes.

The Kennett era ended with a shock defeat at the 1999 election. Steve Bracks took over and served as Premier until retiring in 2007, succeeded by John Brumby. Brumby did not secure another term for Labor, but his government’s narrow defeat, and his long period previously as opposition leader, means the Labor government 1999-2010 is often referred to as the Bracks-Brumby government.

New South Wales

The last 60 years of NSW politics has seen three named eras, the Askin era 1965-76, the Wran era 1976-88, and Carr era (1995-2011). All three correspond to the common pattern of a strong first premiers with less successful successors.

The Coalition governments 1988-1995 and 2011-2023 were associated with multiple Premiers but cannot pass without mention as both were periods of successful government.

Bob Askin ended 24 years of Labor government in 1965. He won three more elections before retiring in January 1975. He was succeeded for just over a year by Tom Lewis before he was replaced by Eric Willis in a bid to revive the government’s fortunes. In the aftermath of the Whitlam government, and with hints from Canberra about a tough budget, Willis called an early election for May 1976 and lost narrowly.

Labor’s new Premier was Neville Wran, a charismatic leader who proved more than the “Whitlam writ small” tag bestowed on him by the Sydney Morning Herald in the 1976 election campaign. He led a reforming government, won two of the state’s largest landslide victories in 1978 and 1981 and another clear victory in 1984. He resigned in 1986 to be succeeded by Barrie Unsworth who, compared to Wran, appeared a throwback to a previous Labor era. He was defeated in a huge swing to the Coalition in 1988, the government’s failings along with a period of unpopularity for the Hawke government bringing the Wran era to a close.

Bob Carr took over a dispirited Labor opposition and came surprisingly close to victory over the Greiner government in 1991. Four years later he returned Labor to office with a narrow victory over Greiner’s successor John Fahey. Carr won two more elections in 1999 and 2003 before retiring in 2005.

The Carr era included three successors. Morris
Iemma won a surprising re-election in 2007 against a divided opposition. He was deposed by his own party in September 2008 after a party revolt over electricity privatisation. He was replaced by Nathan Rees who was in turn replaced in December 2009 by Kristina Keneally, another woman brought in to clean up the bloke’s mess. She led her scandal plagued government to NSW Labor’s worst ever defeat in March 2011.

Queensland

Queensland is a state unusual for very long periods of government from one side of politics. Labor governed from 1915 to 1957 with one brief interregnum 1929-32 under a string of powerful Labor Premiers. Their Coalition replacements governed until 1989, the last six years as a Nationals-only government. Labor then governed for 30 of the next 35 years.

The departure of National Premier Joh Bjelke-Petersen in 1987 after 19 years in office saw him replaced as Premier by Mike Ahern. With corruption allegations from the Fitzgerald Commission swirling around the government, the Nationals dumped Ahern for Russell Cooper 73 days before the government was defeated on 2 December 1989. Coopers rural background and folksy image was all about saving the National Party’s rural heartland.

Anna Bligh replaced Peter Beattie after nine years as Premier. Bligh was successful at re-election 18 months later but suffered massive defeat in 2012. Three years later, Annastacia Palaszczuk won an upset victory from nowhere and served as Premier for just under nine years. She was succeeded by Steven Miles who led Labor to defeat 10 months later.

South Australia

Don Dunstan was a reforming Premier of South Australia 1967-68 and 1970 to 1979. He resigned through ill-health in February 1979 by Des Corcoran. He called an early election for September 1979 and was defeated.

John Bannon became the next SA Labor Premier, elected to office in 1982. He won re-election twice but resigned in September 1992 after the State Bank collapse. His successor Lynn Arnold led Labor to a landslide defeat 14 months later in December 1993.

New Liberal Premier Dean Brown won the biggest landslide victory in SA history but was discarded as Premier three years later in one of those factional disputes that the SA Liberal Party has long been famous for. John Olsen took over as Premier and eight months later came close to defeat. Olsen was forced to resign as Premier in October 2001. Despite only five months in office, Rob Kerin came very close to depriving Labor of government at the March 2002 election.

New Labor Premier Mike Rann negotiated his government into majority government, won a big victory in 2006 and a much narrower win in 2010. He was inelegantly prodded into into retiring in mid-2011. New Premier Jay Weatherill led Labor to a remarkable victory in 2014 followed by a narrow defeat at the end of Labor’s fourth term in office. Weatherill would go down as one of the most successful replacement Premiers.

Western Australia

WA governments don’t often go past two terms. One Premier who did dominate politics through several governments was Sir Charles Court. He was a very high profile as Minister for Industrial Development for 12 years in the Brand Coalition government 1959-1971. He took over as Liberal Leader after the Brand government’s defeat, defeated the Tonkin Labor government in 1974 and won two more elections before retiring in January 1982. His successor Ray O’Connor led the Coalition to defeat a year later.

Brian Burke became Labor Premier in 1983 but only served in the office for five years. However, his influence over the Labor Party continued long after he left parliamentary politics. His successor Peter Dowding won re-election for Labor against the odds in 1989. After taking over from Dowding in early 1990, new Premier Carmen Lawrence could not defy political gravity a second time and lost the 1993 election.

Tasmania

Long periods of party government have seen a succession of Premiers but two are worth mentioning.

After a long period of Labor government, the party’s third Premier Doug Lowe was deposed in November 1981. His successor Harry Holgate deferred parliament but lost a vote of no confidence when it met and lost the May 1982 election.

Ray Groom won a landslide victory in 1992 but lost his majority at the 1996 election. As he had promised not to govern in minority, Groom resigned as Premier, succeeded by Tony Rundle. After two and a half years as Premier, Rundle called an early election, gambling on a reduction in the size of parliament and sale of the hydro to pay debt. It was a brave move but he lost.

The two long periods of party government since have seen multiple Premiers. Labor governed 1998 to 2014 under Jim Bacon, Paul Lennon, David Bartlett and Lara Gidding. Since 2014 the Liberal Party has had three Premiers, Will Hodgman, Peter Gutwein and Jeremy Rockliff