June 2022

2022 Senate Election and Ballot Paper Completion Types

The 2022 Senate election was the third since the 2016 abolition of group voting tickets. These tickets had previously allowed parties to control the distribution of between-party preferences by allowing voters the choice of voting for only one pre-arranged party ticket.

The new system put voters in control of between-party preferences. Voters could indicate ordered preferences for parties ‘above the line’ (ATL) on the ballot paper, or for individual candidates ‘below-the-line’ (BTL).

The changes also ended full preferential voting in favour of partly optional preferential voting. Ballot paper instructions stated to mark at least six ATL or 12 BTL preferences. Generous savings provisions were adopted, with any ATL vote with a valid first preferences being saved as formal, and any BTL vote with at least six preferences also being saved.

The changes were based on similar reforms ending party control over preferences adopted in the states. New South Wales abolished upper house group voting tickets at the 2003 state election, South Australia in 2018, and Western Australian will abolish them at the next state election in 2025. Only Victoria continues to use group voting tickets.

The major difference between the state reforms and the Senate system is the states have made ATL preferences fully optional. State instructions are to mark one square above the line with further preferences optional. The number of BTL preferences required varies from state to state.

The Senate instructions state to mark a minimum six ATL preferences, though as already mentioned, any ballot paper with at least a valid ATL first preference is saved as formal.

The release of 2022 ballot paper data has revealed an unchanged pattern in how voters completed their ballot papers. As at the two previous elections in 2016 and 2019, around 80% of all 2022 Senate ballot papers were completed according to the ballot paper ATL instructions with a sequence of six ATL preferences.
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2022 Post-Federal Election Pendulum

With 16 members elected to the crossbench in the new House of Representatives, drawing up a new electoral pendulum based on the 2022 Federal election result strains the traditionally used two-sided format.

However, I’ve gone with the traditional format with the non-major party seats separated bottom right on the opposition side of the pendulum. However, the expanded size of the crossbench means this group of seats deserves more attention than its bottom of the table position suggests.

Inside this post I provide a post-election pendulum for the House of Representatives, along with some general comments on the overall result.Read More »2022 Post-Federal Election Pendulum

2022 New South Wales Senate Election

  • Re-elected 1 – Marise Payne (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 2 – Deborah O’Neill (Labor)
  • Re-elected 3 – Ross Cadell (National)
  • Re-elected 4 – Jenny McAllister (Labor)
  • Elected 5 – David Shoebridge (Greens)
  • Re-elected 6 – Jim Molan (Liberal)

Party Outcome: Labor (-1) Greens (+1). Within the Coalition ticket, the Nationals recover the seat lost to the Liberal Party during the 2017 citizenship drama.

A full table of first preference votes allocated to ticket votes and to individual candidates is included in the post. Some analysis of the preference flows will be included once the preference distribution report is released later today.
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2022 Victorian Senate Election

  • Re-elected 1 – Sarah Henderson (Liberal)
  • Elected 2 – Linda White (Labor)
  • Re-elected 3 – Bridget McKenzie (National)
  • Re-elected 4 – Jana Stewart (Labor)
  • Re-elected 5 – Lidia Thorpe (Greens)
  • Elected 6 – Ralph Babet (United Australia Party)
  • Defeated – Greg Mirabella (Liberal)

Party Outcome: Coalition (-1), United Australia Party (+1).

A table of final first preferences is included inside this post along with an analysis of the distribution of preferences sheets.
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2022 Queensland Senate Election

  • Re-elected 1 – James McGrath (LNP)
  • Re-elected 2 – Murray Watt (Labor)
  • Re-elected 3 – Matt Canavan (LNP)
  • Elected 4 – Penny Allman-Payne (Greens)
  • Re-elected 5 – Pauline Hanson (One Nation)
  • Re-elected 6 – Anthony Chisholm (Labor)
  • Defeated – Amanda Stoker (LNP)

Party Summary: Greens (+1), LNP (-1).

A full table of first preference votes is included in the post as well as an analysis of the preference flows.

The critical point in the count was the exclusion of Clive Palmer (UAP). More than half of his preferences flowed to Pauline Hanson (ONP), allowing Hanson to open a wide lead over Amanda Stoker (LNP) in the contest for the third conservative seat.
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2022 Western Australian Senate Election

  • Re-elected 1 – Sue Lines (Labor)
  • Re-elected 2 – Michaelia Cash (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 3 – Glenn Sterle (Labor)
  • Re-elected 4 – Dean Smith (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 5 – Dorinda Cox (Greens)
  • Elected 6 – Fatima Payman (Labor)
  • Defeated – Ben Small (Liberal) – see notes below

Party Outcome: Probably Liberal (-1), Labor (+1)

All votes have now been counted and allocated as first preferences to ticket votes or to individual candidates. A table of these votes is included min the post along with an analysis of the final distribution of preferences that elected Fatima Payman (Labor) to the final vacancy ahead of Paul Filing (One Nation).

In brief, Liberal preferences on the exclusion of the third Liberal candidate determined the outcome. On first preferences, Labor’s third candidate Fatima Payman was on 0.42 quotas to One Nation’s Paul Filing on 0.24. By the time only three candidates were left, the lead had narrowed with Payman on 0.72 and Filing on 0.61, 155,170 votes to 133,111 with the third Liberal Ben Small to be excluded with 99,327 votes. Small’s preferences split 31.0% to Payman, 29.6% to Filing and 39.4% exhausting. The final totals were Payman 185,992 or 0.8531 quotas to Filing 162,502 or 0.7454 quotas.

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2022 South Australian Senate Election

  • Re-elected 1 – Simon Birmingham (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 2 – Penny Wong (Labor)
  • Re-elected 3 – Andrew McLachlan (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 4 – Don Farrell (Labor)
  • Elected 5 – Barbara Pocock (Greens)
  • Elected 6 – Kerrynne Liddle (Liberal)
  • Defeated – Stirling Griff (Centre Alliance)
  • Defeated – Rex Patrick (Rex Patrick Team)

Party Summary: Ex-Nick Xenophon Team Senators Rex Patrick and Stirling Griff have been defeated (-2), replaced by Greens (+1) and Liberal (+1).

Post includes analysis of the preference flows that determined who won the final seat.
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2022 Tasmanian Senate Election

  • Re-elected 1 – Jonno Duniam (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 2 – Anne Urquhart (Labor)
  • Re-elected 3 – Peter Whish-Wilson (Greens)
  • Re-elected 4 – Helen Polley (Labor)
  • Re-elected 5 – Wendy Askew (Liberal)
  • Elected 6 – Tammy Tyrrell (Jacqui Lambie Newtwork)
  • Defeated – Eric Abetz (Liberal)

Party Summary: Liberal (-1), Jacqui Lambie Network (+1)

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2022 ACT Senate Election

  • Re-elected 1 – Katy Gallagher (Labor)
  • Elected 2 – David Pocock (Independent)
  • Defeated – Zed Seselja (Liberal)

Party Outcome: Liberal (-1), Independent (+1)

The final first preferences table and a summary of the preferences distributions are published inside the post.

David Pocock trailed on first preferences, but with the Liberal Party having polled only three-quarters of a quota, Pocock was easily able to overtake Zed Seselja and win on preferences. Overall Pocock received around 72.5% of preferences while Zed Seselja received only 18.9% with 8.6% exhausted. Seselja finished with 0.86 quotas while Pocock was elected with 1.09 quotas.
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