(Update: the date for the by-election has been set for 9 May.)
After losing the Liberal leadership this morning, Sussan Ley has announced she will resign as member for her southern NSW seat of Farrer. Ley has held the seat since 2001 when she took it from the National Party after the retirement of Tim Fischer.
In two-party contests, Ley has held the seat with double digit margins since her first victory in a three-cornered contest in 2001. But that margin has been reduced in contests versus Independents at two of the last three elections, to 10.9% in 2019 and only 6.2% in 2025.
If Ley resigns it will set-up a very messy by-election for new Liberal Leader Angus Taylor.
Under the Coalition agreement, the Nationals did not contest Farrer while Ley was member. With the seat vacant, it is certain that the Nationals will run against the new Liberal candidate.
Given current polling, One Nation would be certain to contest. Two of the last three contests for Farrer have seen Independents reach second place. Labor may contest the by-election, but the party has not reached a quarter of the primary vote since 2007. More likely Labor would sit out the contest and leave the field free for a conservative slugfest.
The last few weeks of Coalition disputes and Liberal leadership rumours could well drag on ahead of a Farrer by-election.
History of the Farrer Electorate
Farrer was first contested in 1949 on the expansion of the parliament. It has always been held by the Coalition with only four members over 76 years since. All have served as Ministers in Coalition governments.
Members for Farrer have been David Fairbairn (Liberal 1949-1975), Wal Fife (Liberal (1975-1984), Tim Fischer (National 1984-2001) and Sussan Ley (Liberal) since 2001.
From 1949 to 1984, Farrer covered the rural areas around the southern NSW regional cities of Albury and Wagga Wagga. In the past both have been cities where the Liberal Party was the dominant Coalition party.
That boundaries radically changed with the expansion of Parliament in 1984. Wagga Wagga was moved into Hume (it is now in Riverina) and Farrer was re-drawn as an elongated seat running along the Murray River from the Snowy Mountains through Albury to the South Australian border. The justification for this elongated electorate was that Farrer received television and other media from Melbourne. The boundaries were expanded slightly ahead of the 1993 election. The 1993-1998 boundaries are shown below.
Farrer 1993-1998
Farrer 2007-2013
NSW lost a seat in a redistribution ahead of the 2001 election. The areas east of Albury were removed, replaced by a vast expansion north to take in Broken Hill and extending to the Queensland Border. The border expanded further in 2007 with Wilcannia and the central Darling included. So the seat covered areas receiving television from Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide. The western part of the seat was on South Australian time. 
Farrer since 2016
In 2016 there was another major boundary change. Broken Hill and northern areas were removed, Farrer gaining the western Riverina including Griffith, Leeton and Narranderra. Those boundaries remain in place today.
Past Results and Three-Cornered Contests
Through history the Coalition agreement has held up in Farrer. Of the seat’s 28 contests, only four were three-cornered races with both Liberal and National candidates. Two were on the expansion of Parliament in 1949 and 1984. The other two followed the retirement of sitting members in 1975 and 2001.
The 1984 election on re-drawn boundaries was the first to see Farrer leave the Liberal fold. It was won by the National Party’s Tim Fischer, who had represented the western end of Farrer as a state MP. Fischer would be re-elected without a Liberal opponent at the next five elections before retiring in 2001. Fischer served as National Party Leader 1990-1999 and Deputy Prime Minister 1996-1999.
Whichever party held the seat, it has always been a very safe seat. The chart below shows Coalition two-party preferred results in Farrer compared to the Coalition two-party preferred percentage vote for New South Wales.
Farrer has recorded two-party results 15-20% above the Coalition’s state-wide two-party result at every election. The majority was for the Nationals 1984-1998, and for the Liberal Party with Sussan Ley since 2001.
But not all contests have been two-party races. In 2019 and 2025 Labor slipped to third behind an Independent. In 2019 the Liberal margin versus Independent Kevin Mack was reduced to 10.9%, around half its two-party margin. In 2025 the margin was again halved to 6.4% in a contest versus Independent Michelle Milthorpe.
The tightest race came in the 2001 three-cornered contest. The two-party preferred margin was 16.4%, but Labor had slipped to third and the final result was a Liberal victory over the Nationals by just 0.1% or 206 votes.
The chart below shows primary votes at elections since 1984. The Liberal and National primary votes both fell below 50% at the three-cornered contests in 1984 and 2001, though in both cases the combined Coalition vote was above 50%. The 2025 election was the first where support for a single Coalition candidate fell below 50% as Sussan Ley faced an independent and several small right-wing parties.
Labor’s vote has not been above 33% since 1984, or above 25% since 2007. Labor’s vote has been below 20% at the last four elections, at two of which Labor slipped to third behind Independents.
One Nation has contested Farrer five times. Its highest vote was 14.0% at its first election in 1998. It has returned to the contest at the last two elections with 6.3% in 2022 and 6.6% in 2025. Independent Kevin Mack polled 20.5% in 2019 and Michelle Millthorp 20.0% in 2025.
The 2001 Contest
With the retirement of Tim Fischer, Farrer saw a three-cornered contest at the 2001 election. After a pre-selection involving public meetings across the electorate, the Nationals chose 57 year-old Bill Bott. My notes at the time state “When Tim Fischer retired, he pushed for a new type of pre-selection process for his successor. This was implemented, with the candidates for pre-selection attending public meetings in all the major towns of the electorate, meeting, greeting and answering questions from interested constituents. Then the normal National Party pre-selection process took place, choosing 57 year-old farmer Bill Bott from just north of Corowa, a past President of the NSW Shire’s Association. He has served on Corowa Shire Council since 1977.”
The Liberal Party chose Sussan Ley, who according to my notes at the times was a “39 year-old farmers wife from across the Murray at Tallangatta in north-east Victoria. She was defeated for Liberal pre-selection in the Wodonga based seat of Indi, and now crosses the border to try NSW after defeating five other party hopefuls for the opportunity. She works for the tax office in Albury.” She had been defeated for pre-selection in Indi by Sophie Mirabella.
Come the election, the younger female Liberal candidate easily outpolled the older National, 37.7% to 23.4%.
But Labor finished third and recommended preferences to the National. The chart below plots the progressive % vote by count during the distribution of preferences.
Ley continued to easily outpoll Bott through the distribution of preferences. When only three candidates remained, Ley (LIB) was on 43.7%, Bott (NAT) 29.6% with Labor third on 26.6%.
On Labor’s exclusion, 76% of Labor preferences flowed to Bott, bringing him close to victory. As the final line of the above chart shows, Ley won 50.1% to Bott 49.9%, a margin in votes of just 206 votes.
If there is a by-election, with Liberal, National, One Nation, Independent and possibly many other candidates, the contest will be more like 2001 than the coronation contests that Farrer has seen since 1949.
2025 Two-Party Preferred Polling Place Results
(Click on polling place for results)
2025 Two-Candidate Preferred Polling Place Results
(Click on polling place for results)
2025 Preference Flow Data – Liberal versus Independent
2025 Preference Flow Data – Liberal versus Labor
I believe it is essential for a female to represent the Liberal Party as it would come across as anti female to the electorate at large should they choose a male candidate in the seat of Farrer.
Here’s a thought. Why don’t they just select the best, most qualified candidate. If that person has two X chromosomes, great. If they have an X and Y, that’s great too. I think the “electorate at large” just wants the best possible candidate and perhaps they’re not really obsessed with gender, – despite what the media might lead us to believe.
Absolute insanity (Sarcasm)
On a more serious note in a seat of only 45000 voters can I ask what you feel would make the most qualified candidate? Local knowledge, lived experience, passion for real and meaningful change or just a genuine desire to represent the interests of those being forced to choose?
COMMENT: You’re out by about 80,000. The enrolment in Farrer is around 125,000.
In case you don’t understand the numbers thing, the 45,000 is the votes that flowed via preferences; the remaining difference Antony has highlighted to you is the first pref votes made for the libs and ALP.
COMMENT: Every vote has the same value and every vote counts to the final result and helps determine the winner.
Yes and no. People do just want the best candidate, but when a party has almost no women in leadership, it sends a very clear message
It’s just odd that the ‘best candidate’ in a large majority of cases is male, despite the fact that, as 51% of the population, women should be the best candidate at least half of the time. Could it be that the Lib and Nat parties’ preselection systems are not delivering the best candidates at all, due to built-in barriers at every step for women, starting at birth, that are designed to hinder, discourage or prevent women from winning these jobs that men prefer to keep for themselves? Ever heard of a level playing field, or in this case, a rocky hillside full of sand traps? And Australians claim to believe in a fair go. Still, women persist in the interests of delivering the best candidate …
I don’t think they care anymore
and god forbid they expose their true colours
Antony looking at the numbers Michelle Milthorpe could progress well being an independent.
A fine gift from Sussan to Angus. Should show us all what qualities he brings to the nation.
Hey Antony, I believe you accidentally wrote that Sussan won the seat in 2001 by ‘2026’ votes instead of 206. Very understandable, and rather funny, mistake.
COMMENT: Fixed that. A simply typo. I’ve had to tinker with this constantly as it switched from what Ley might do to what Ley has done. In all that mucking around with tense I’ve had to do a bit of re-writing.
Michelle Milthorpe is an excellent candidate and should have a strong chance, given it’s a by-election and she will be the only candidate with name recognition. She ran a strong campaign on the ground last time.
Yes Michelle Millthorpe is well known and has policies based on the needs of Farrer people.
It’d probably be for the best if the Libs leave this seat to the Nats.
Should they still make the 2PP, they’ll win, whether their opponents are ON or Milthorpe.
If they leave it to the Nats though, then the Nats get another seat in the shadow ministry. Not sure Taylor would want that.
sorry stuart maybe you meant two-candidate-preferred not two-party, all the best
The Liberals had a women problem – but they got rid of her.
While I expect the Liberals to hold, it’ll be a fascinating look at preference flows in the rural sort of seat ONP are going to need in order to post a decent result in 28′
Before my time but was reading about it recently and the Liberal preselection in Indi 2001 also involved one Daniel Tehan, then having returned from a diplomatic posting in Mexico City.
Given that Farrer is adjacent to Indi and the Voices of Indi (Helen Haines/Cathy McGowan) volunteers won’t have an election of their own to worry about, I think it likely that Michelle Milthorpe (if she runs again as the Voices of Farrer independent) would have a surfeit of volunteers for the whole campaign, right up to by-election day.
That’s an excellent point.
Thank you. Little things like that (the availability of more volunteers) can sometimes make the difference.
I can easily see Milthorpe winning. She got 20% of the first preferences in 2025. She’s not going to lose any of that and pick up a bit of the disillusioned Liberal party vote. ONP will obviously pick up some of that too, while the National party will pick up heaps by fielding a candidate this time as well. If Milthorpe can top the charts with 28-30% of the first preferences, she might do enough to scrap over the line.
I would expect a big swing to One Nation. The electorate won’t like their PM being turfed out.
COMMENT: I presume you mean MP not PM.
That may produce a big swing against the Liberal (and possibly also the National) candidate but not necessarily all to One Nation. The Independent who went from 20% to 43% against Sussan Ley last time is probably in the box seat.
Interesting that Labor preferences are forecast to overwhelmingly flow to the Nats over the Libs. Would have thought that the Libs were more ideologically aligned?
COMMENT: Not sure they are forecast. In my post I was referring to the last three-cornered contest in 2001. If Labor contest the by-election, I would expect them to recommend preferences based on what would most disturb Coalition relations. Rather than use ideology, Labor would traditionally recommend against whoever is the sitting Liberal or National member.
Milthorpe’s website and social media pages are still live. She was holding community meetings and events throughout December and January, so still has the network active. A helping hand from Indi volunteers (both sides of the Murray are very intertwined socially to the extent they have happily elected a Victorian for year), if they were not in separate states they would be one seat) and the backlash against liberal infighting should be enough.
Posh Riverina kids always tended go to private school in Geelong or Melbourne, the area is AFL territory, and there’s a whole network of freight trains extending from Victoria into the Riverina.
The only reason the Riverina is in NSW is because NSW refused a reasonable split in the 1830s.
Victoria was NSW until 1850. But you are right – they are basically Victorian along the NSW Border and that is why Wodonga’s Bridget McKenzie will be the Coalition candidate
Indeed. Farrer is south-west (on the Australian Rules side) of the “Barassi Line”. If former Geelong Cats great Tom Hawkins (who grew up and is based again in Finley NSW) were political (I have seen no evidence) threw his hat in the ring, he’d do well. Or is he seeking Liberal or national preselection quietly?
Indeed. The whole of Farrer is south-west (on the Australian Rules side) of the “Barassi Line”. If Geelong Cats great Tom Hawkins (born and now returned to Finley NSW, not sure if he’s at all political) threw his hat in the ring, he could do well. Is he quietly seeking Liberal or National preselection?
Always thought Ley lived on the Gold Coast … But that was just her holiday apartment. I can’t see how she represented or did anything for her electorate at all. Would be great to see an independent gain this seat.
Is there an established independent candidate for this seat? Or would it be someone new
Michelle Milthorpe ran as an independent and did surprisingly well and has announced that she will run in the by. After that who knows. It is not often that seats are suddenly open after 25 years at the drop of a hat.
Hi Antony – do you see ALP’s decision whether to run a candidate being essential to the independents chance of success? Their preferences flowed strongly to her in 2025 and often assist independents getting over the line against Lib/Nat candidates, thoughts?
COMMENT: If this were a contest at a general election Labor would run to assist upper house vote. At a by-election there is no reason to run in an unwinnable seat. Labor polled only 15% at last year’s election. It will poll even lower at a by-election with Millthorp running again. Labor did not contest the 2024 Pittwater by-election to aid the Independent’s chances, though in that case optional preferential voting gave Labor a reason not to run and split the anti-Liberal vote.
The final four in 2025 were:
Ley 45.74% including 1% donkey
PHON: 12.12%
ALP: 19.07%
Milthorpe: 24.5%
But here is the twist PHON preferences went 44.11% to Ley, 8.05% to ALP & 46.84% to the Milthorpe. Ley would have had the weakest PHON preference flow in NSW? & also the ALP had the weakest PHON leakage?
& then here is another twist ALP preferences went Ley 26% Milthorpe 74%. Ley would have had the strongest ALP preference flow in NSW against an independent?
My guess this time is that there is a conservative vote of 58% available when we get down to the last 5 candidates because ALP & Milthorpe will not increase their vote.That conservative vote is available to PHON, Nationals, Liberals & clearly Milthorpe, as PHON preferences show from 2025.
But it’s a byelection – so no serious consequences if the voter lets their heads go & their hearts fly?
My bet is that the final count will be between Milthorpe (going to first place with ALP preferences) & PHON (pushing past the Liberals with Nat preferences) & that then Liberal preferences will elect the Milthorpe.
COMMENT: Most seats with a significant independent see weaker flows of One Nation preferences to the Coalition. Some of the support for One Nation is anti-major party vote, not just a conservative vote.
Antony I neglected to thank you for the excellent commentary & maps showing the movement of the seat around NSW
Roger
The problems in the Liberal Party are not about the leader but about immigration which both main parties have pushed high in their comfortable 2 party-preferred La-La land which now finally starts to come undone. No one seems to question how the ALP, with just 1/3 of the primary vote got a 2/3 seat majority in Parliament, an inherently undemocratic outcome. In a proper democracy, each vote must have the same influence on the composition of the Parliament. The Farrer by-election is likely to continue a fundamentally flawed system which is in self-destruct mode.
COMMENT: The only electoral system that meets your criteria is proportional representation. Single member systems almost always deliver a winner’s bonus to the largest party. In Australia that’s because not only did Labor have the highest vote, they also received the most preferences from other parties. I should point out that at the last UK election election under simple majority voting, the UK Labour Party won an even bigger majority from an even lower vote than the ALP. The discontinuity between votes and seats you refer to is based on national vote and results in seats. That is not a problem at a single by-election.
Part of the debate about PR is which system you use and how the election is organised.
PR at a federal election = parties putting up a national list and MPs getting elected with less than one percent of the vote.
If you have it at a state & territory level for the federal parliament then you don’t have PR at the federal level.
The Netherlands operates as a national constituency and a candidate only needs 0.67% to be elected which leads to a fractured parliament and a fractured government. A very recent effort to just look at having a minimum threshold was voted down by the MPs and parties who would lose their seats. They refused to even allow looking at it!
COMMENT: The Constitution allocates MHRs to states based on population so I can’t see how you can have nation-wide proportional representation without constitutional change. PR could be applied based on the number of members to be elected within each state and territory’s boundaries. The Constitution is silent on whether members would be elected at large or within multi-member seats. The rules on drawing boundaries or determining quotas would have to be the same in every state, apart from variation in quota dependent on the numbers to be elected.
If anything, this seat will be a test lab for the state of the country at least on the right side of politics. The Nats will do everything they can to win the seat as they should it fits their profile. One Nation will run as I can only assume they poll well in a seat like this. Taylor would not want to let a Liberal seat (and one held by a woman) go either. Every other party will run someone as it is an open seat. No coalition agreement. No preference agreements. Sorting the HTVs will be like reading tarot cards. Whomever is presenting on ABC for Antony on election night will have their work cut out for them what a way to debut. A number crunchers dream. If I was Labor I would say out of this fray. I am not even sure who Labor would preference probably the Nats. Wild. Make sure you have plenty of snacks and a stiff drink.
Yes. It may be worth investing in Farrer byelection popcorn futures.
antony do you have the two party preffered prefence data in the seats where it wasn’t a liberal vs labour contest or where i could find the preference data
COMMENT: Yes I do. I was planning to publish it on Friday but political events got in the way. Next week.
It is going to be a fascinating race and a huge test of One Nation’s polling figures. As noted by the @Auspolls team, Farrer was already in their list of projected ONP gains; obviously that’s been done on a very simplistic model and probably ignored the notable independent in place, and modelling the rise of ONP on the independent’s FP vote is going to be neigh impossible anyway.
With the loss of incumbency, projected FP shifts of previously LNP votes to ON based on polling results, and the likely split of LNP votes into Liberal and National camps for elimination counts, this is likely to degenerate into a senate-like count where the seat may well flip on elimination orders of a few dozen preferences despite whatever the end “margin” comes out as.
ALP won’t field a candidate, they’ll assess the outcome and incorate it into overall strategy for 2028. Michelle Millthorpe on One Nation preferences.
I realise that Labor sitting out would be neither novel nor likely even noteworthy, but I think it would be disappointing for the constituents of Farrer to be deprived of that choice.
Would Labor be reluctant to put themselves to that test right now, so to speak?
COMMENT: Farrer has never won, its vote in the seat has been declining for many years and the party has no chance of winning. I would be very surprised if Labor contested the by-election. Especially if a viable Independent contests the seat.
I think any party that is either in government or wishes to be in government should stand in by-elections.
It’s not always about winning or losing but giving your voters a chance to vote for their party of preference.
Step aside and you’re basically saying “we don’t care about you” and that can then have an impact on other election results such as the senate and state and local government elections.
You can put up a candidate but do little or no campaigning. Put the independent as 2nd preference and so on.
It’s the showing up that matters.
It will be interesting to see if the Coalition (such as it is) candidate, as they have in the past, will preference One Nation last because that would be the finish as far as voting for them goes and I will be putting Coalition candidates last. We do not have a real choice now. We get Labour or Labour Lite. Both of the major parties have overseen the creeping withdrawal of services from the bush in favour of NSW, Newcastle, Sydney, Wollongong. We need actual representatives for electors not just for representatives for the major party political positions that do not largely differ from one to the other.
COMMENT: It has been a few years since the Coalition recommended to put One Nation last. They actively recommended preferences for One Nation in many seats in 2025. And of course, parties can only recommend preferences, not control or determine them. The power over preferences is entirely in the hands of voters.
How long after a seat is vacant does a by election have to be called and then how long or short between writs issued and election date?
COMMENT: In the case of Farrer, the seat is not yet vacant. Once Sussan Ley hands her resignation to the Speaker, a writ would normally be issued not long after. The minimum time for a campaign is 33 days between writ issue and polling day. So about 5 weeks after the writ is issued.
You spelled Tim Fischer’s surname three different ways in the second paragraph of the ‘Past Results and Three-Cornered Contests’ section.
That aside, thanks for a great write-up of what is sure to big a test of the political zeitgeist. PHON and Milthorpe seem poised to complicate this one quite a bit for the newly re-reunited Coalition.
It would be a no brainer for Labor not run a candidate in Farrer. They often struggle to even find a candidate to stand in general elections, and their primary vote continues to decline.
Given there’ll probably be four ‘conservative’ party candidates, the primary vote will split all over the shop, as will their preferences.
With a ready-made candidate in Michelle Milthorpe, who, in the independent mold, has a high name recognition, solid credentials as a community advocate and the ability to readily muster a team for the ‘ground’ game, Labor’s choice is obvious.
It’s not uncommon for major parties not to field candidates in byelections they can’t win, and this presents the ALP with a great opportunity to cause collateral damage to the conservative side of politics at no cost, either financially or electorally.
For the same reasons, the Greens should also give this one a miss.
This byelection presents Labor with an opportunity to deny the ‘conservatives’ a seat which they believe is rightly theirs.
I expect that everyone on the centre-left from Labor to the Greens will preference Milthorpe. That in and of itself will probably guarantee that she is one of the two in the final preference. The question is then who ends up being the other party. If it is a Liberal it will end up being much like the 2025 election. If it is a National one could argue that the seat is reverting to form a loss for the Liberals but not for the Coalition. If One Nation is one of the two then panic will set in with the Coalition. A ON-IND contest would be most interesting as how the final preference flows go is anyone’s guess. A ON victory would set off shockwaves. An IND win would be framed much like all of the other Teal victories as the Liberals losing the plot with centre-right voters. This election could be of monumental consequence depends on how it unfolds.
COMMENT: Before people speculate on how preferences might flow, you need to know how the primary vote will play out. I think the Independent needs to get 35-40% of the primary vote to have a chance in the absence of a Labor candidate. As in 2025 Michelle Milthorpe should poll well around Albury and assuming there is only one Independent. There is talk of state Independent MP for Murray, Helen Dalton, contesting and she would poll well at the western end. That would probably make it more difficult for either to win.
Milthorpe only need a 20-25% primary to win.
COMMENT: If there is no Labor candidate she almost certainly needs more than 20-25% to win.
It will be interesting to see if Sussan supporters will feel betrayed by the Liberal party in kicking her out in such a manner, given they’ve been the candidate for a very long time, the support is to Sussan just as much as the party, and those feeling the betrayal may vote for another party instead of the new LNP candidate.
Sussan’s supporters are few and far between she’s probably got as many detractors as she does supporters. I can almost guarantee Libs wont win this based on poor polling. I’m tipping either a Nat or ON gain here.
Will this be the first federal election under the new caps on political donations and spending caps?
ANSWER: I don’t know.
i reckon this will end up being a ON v NAT contest. Ley has dragged down the Liberals vote considerably since the election. but many will be happy to see the back of her. me included. The liberal primary is gonna get hammered between ONs polling and NATs contesting this time around. labor will probly sit this one out. Im guessing 24% primary for the Libs. 30% One Nation. 17% Nationals and probly 13% teal. If dalton throws her hat in the ring also that could dilute those further. The NsW nats are probly hoping Dalton contests the seat as hen she will need to resgn from parliament. But the election is ony 12 months away anyway.
Those primary figures put the combined One Nation and Coalition candidates over 70%! Maybe true outside Albury. Put Albury back in and that becomes around 10% too high.
If Milthorpe and Dalton both ran, but both recommended the other as second preference, do you think that would be enough to encourage cross support from the region where they each is weak, and possibly get a definitive independent win?
COMMENT: Depends on what they poll and ensuring that one of them wins requires strong flows of preferences. It requires them to recommend preferences on how-to-votes which is something Independents don’t normally do. And if you look at the support base for both candidates, there would be a significant leakage of preferences between the two.
Fascinating stuff. Do you know roughly what % of Farrer voters are in Albury? My guesstimate was a third.
ANSWER: A third is correct. Albury City Council enrolment is around 41,000, the electorate 125,000.
Doesn’t a by election normally clip a Government rather than an opposition?
COMMENT: Historically yes, but the last four years have seen a run of bad by-elections for oppositions. Labor took the federal seat of Aston from the Liberal Party at a 2023 by-election. In 2024 the SA Labor government took Dunstan and Black off the opposition Liberal Party at by-elections. In 2024 an Independent took the NSW seat of Pittwater off the opposition Liberal Party.
Antony – any word on who the Nationals candidate might be?
COMMENT: Ley has not resigned so there is no vacancy yet and therefore no by-election. I’ve heard nothing yet on who the Liberal, National and One Nation candidates could be.
the Liberals are gonna lose this. Farrer local here. I suspect One Nation to make a play. Nats to contest. I wouldnt be surprised at a NAT v ONP contest. Millthorpe will lose a bit due to the anti Ley vote now gone. she may no t make the 2cp again. Dalton would probably make the 2cp if she ran. If she runs as a ONP cnadidate as is considering she would probably have it in the bag.
As at mid-morning on Friday 27 February, Sussan Ley has formally resigned from Parliament. The Speaker will then have to set a date that does not clash with public holidays (Easter & Anzac Day) and NSW school holidays. Saturday 2 May looks clear.
One Nation preselection candidates look the goods – all three are quality. David Farley certainly has the right resume for the job. If he gets the nod as the candidate, this is going to be very very competitive. It will come down to preferences.
The Libs have been surprisingly quiet. Have you any information on who the candidates will be vying for Lib preselection? I haven’t heard anything from Shooters party either on whether they will run. More than likely will. If they do I predict the SSF party will do a lot better than their last run with the state of the LNP at the moment. It would definitely bring ON vote down with SSF voters who normally vote LNP preferencing them instead as a protest vote.
COMMENT: As of 11 March I have heard nothing on a likely Liberal candidate. But it is still two months to the by-election and five weeks to the close of nominations.
I’m intrigued by Charles’s reference to the “right resume” in Farrer.
I don’t want to talk about personality/qualifications/former careers etc but just one objective fact: age?
So far the PHON candidate is 72 & the Nationals candidate is 69.
At 73, even with 56 years of political activity, I would not dream of coming out of retirement of 4 years and beginning a parliamentary career?
Will you start looking at Farrer now? I can’t find any good analysis and I long for any hope ON will lose ground.
COMMENT: Farrer is a much better fit for One Nation than Nepean. One Nation does better in rural seats.