Western Australia State Redistribution – Final Boundaries Released

The WA Electoral Redistribution has released the final version of the electoral boundaries on which the next election will be fought.

The most significant change introduced by the new boundaries is the merging of the rural seats of Moore and North West Central to create a new seat called Mid-West. This merges two National-held seats into one, a decision that has already had consequences with National MLA for North West Central Merome Beard defecting to the Liberal Party.

The abolition of a regional seat is matched by the creation of a new seat in Perth. The new seat is called Oakford, covering growing suburbs between Armadale and the Kwinana Freeway. Unsurprisingly given the Labor landslide result in 2021, Oakford is a notional Labor seat.

In 2021 Labor won 53 seats to two Liberals and three Nationals. On the old boundaries the Liberals and Nationals needed a uniform swing of 23.4% to gain the 24 seats needed for government. The new boundaries do little to alter the swing needed.

Full detail of the change of margin for all seats can be found inside the post. But first, here’s my calculations for the new electoral pendulum. Seats gained by Labor at the 2021 election are underlined, which gives perspective on the size of the swing needed just to bring the Coalition back to its position after the 2017 election.

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 13.7% MP: Rebecca Stephens (Labor)
Gains the Shire of Plantagenet from Warren-Blackwood. This brings in an area that recorded a National Party majority in 2021, cutting the Labor margin by around three percentage points.
New: ALP 11.0%

Margin Notes

Old: ALP 35.5%

MP: Tony Buti (Labor)
Shifts north, losing Haynes, Hilbert and parts of Brookdale to the new seat of oakford. Gains Kelmscott from Darling Range.
New: ALP 33.8%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 25.8% MP: David Michael (Labor)
New: ALP 25.8%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 36.9% MP: Reece Whitby (Labor)
Shifts south, losing parts of Baldivis, Leda and Wellard to Kwinana and Darling Range while gaining Warnbro and parts of Karnup from the abolished seat of Warnbro.
New: ALP 35.8%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 31.6% MP: Dave Kelly (Labor)
Western boundary moves to the Tonkin Freeway gaining parts of Beechboro and Morley from Morley. Loses part of Caversham to Midland and Bayswater to Maylands.
New: ALP 31.7%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 6.7% MP: Kim Giddens (Labor)
New: ALP 6.7%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 29.2% MP: Cassie Rowe (Labor)
Loses the Burswood Peninsula to Victoria park.
New: ALP 29.4%

BIBRA LAKE (replaces Willagee)
Margin Notes
Old: ALP 27.1% MP: Peter Tinley (Labor)
Name change required after losing the suburbs of Willagee and Kardinya in the north to Bicton. Gains Hamilton Hill and part of Spearwood from Fremantle.
New: ALP 28.2%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 15.6% MP: Lisa O’Malley (Labor)
Gains O’Connor, Willagee and part of Kardinya from Willagee. Loses parts of East Fremantle to Fremantle.
New: ALP 16.2%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 22.5% MP: Don Punch (Labor)
New: ALP 22.5%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 32.2% MP: John Quigley (Labor)
Southern boundary shifts north with Merriwa and part of Ridgewood transferred to Mindarie (formerly Burns Beach).
New: ALP 32.6%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 30.4% MP: Bill Johnston (Labor)
Loses Parkwood to Riverton and gains Kenwick and part of Thornlie from Forrestfield and Thornlie.
New: ALP 30.7%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 2.5% MP: Paul Lilburne (Labor)
After being re=-aligned and re-named Padbury on the draft boundaries, Carine was re-instated with the final boundaries. Loses Karrinyup to Scarborough while gaining Gwelup in return, and gains parts of North Beach and Padbury from Hillarys. Changes increase Labor’s narrow margin.
New: ALP 3.9%

Margin Notes
Old: NAT 10.7% MP: Mia Davis (National) who will be retiring at the 2025 election.
Shifts north, losing the Shires of Cuballing, Kondinin, Kulin and Wickepin to Roe. Gains the Shires of Goomalling, Dowerin, Toodyay, Wongan-Ballidu and Victoria Plains from Moore.
New: NAT 9.3%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 0.8% MP: Christine Tonkin (Labor)
Adjustments to the boundary with neighbouring Scarborough has notionally increased Labor’s narrow margin.
New: ALP 1.6%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 26.7% MP: David Scaife (Labor)
Loses areas east of the Kwinana Freeway to Jandakot.
New: ALP 28.1%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 23.4% MP: Jodie Hanns (Labor)
Gains part of Donnybrook-Balingup Shire, loses parts of the Shires of Capel and Harvey.
New: ALP 23.3%

Margin Notes
Old: LIB 7.4% MP: David Honey (Liberal)
New: LIB 7.4%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 13.5% MP: Hugh Jones (Labor)
Minor changes with neighbouring electorates, the most significant being the transfer of Kelmscott to Armadale.
New: ALP 14.1%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 13.9% MP: Lisa Munday (Labor)
Loses Dudley Park as the eastern boundary is aligned to run along the Mandurah Estuary. Gains Bouvard, Clifton and Herron further south.
New: ALP 13.1%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 25.5% MP: Stephen Price (Labor)
Loses Kenwick to Cannington, gains Gooseberry Hill and Helena Valley from Kalamunda and Midland.
New: ALP 22.9%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 28.1% MP: Simone McGurk (Labor)
Adjustments to boundaries with Bicton, Cockburn and Bibra Lake to the east. The Liberal Party finished third in 2021 leaving Fremantle with a Labor margin of 15.7% versus the Greens, the estimated new ALP v GRN margin 13.9%.
New: ALP 27.3%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 11.7% MP: Lara Dalton (Labor)
Expands to take in the rest of the City of Geraldton as well as the Shires of Chapman Valley and Northampton from the abolished seats of Moore and North West Central. Changes reduce the Labor margin significantly.
New: ALP 9.3%

GIRRAWHEEN (formerly Mirrabooka)
Margin Notes
Old: ALP 33.7% MP: Meredith Hammat (Labor)
Boundary changes cause a name change for this electorate.
New: ALP 33.4%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 19.0% MP: Caitlin Collins (Labor)
A more extensive re-draw proposed at the draft stage was abandoned for the final boundaries resulting in only minor changes to boundaries.
New: ALP 18.7%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 21.0% MP: Yaz Mubarakai (Labor)
Gains Atwell from Cockburn and part of Leeming from Riverton. Loses Forrestdale, Piara Waters and part of Harrisdale to the new electorate of Oakford.
New: ALP 18.2%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 24.7% MP: Emily Hamilton (Labor)
Shifts north, losing part of Ocean Reef to Hillarys, gains Burns Beach and parts of Currumbine from Mindarie (previously Burns Beach).
New: ALP 25.5%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 11.8% MP: Matthew Hughes (Labor)
Loses Gooseberry Hill to Forrestfield, gains Sawyers Valley, Mount Helena, Chidlow and Wooroloo from Swan Hills.
New: ALP 14.5%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 12.0% MP: Ali Kent (Labor)
Gains a large but sparsely populated area from the abolished seat of North West Central, reducing the Labor margin.
New: ALP 11.2%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 21.5% MP: Divina D’Anna (Labor)
Increases in area without bringing many new voters into the seat.
New: ALP 21.4%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 16.9% MP: Jessica Stojkovski (Labor)
New: ALP 16.9%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 34.8% MP: Roger Cook (Labor)
Shifts south losing Hammond Park and Wattleup to Cockburn and Aubin Grove to the new seat of Oakford while gaining parts of Baldivis in the south
New: ALP 38.2%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 25.4% MP: Margaret Quirk (Labor)
Swaps several suburbs with neighbouring Wanneroo and Girrawheen.
New: ALP 25.6%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 25.2% MP: David Templeman (Labor)
Gains Dudley Park from Dawesville, loses Lakelands and Madora Bay to the new seat of Secret Harbour. With the abolition of Legislative Council regions, Mandurah’s northern boundary is no longer aligned with the edge of Parth’s metropolitan zone.
New: ALP 24.2%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 29.3% MP: Lisa Baker (Labor)
New: ALP 29.3%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 25.5% MP: Michelle Roberts (Labor)
Gains part of Bayswater from Bassendean.
New: ALP 26.9%

MID-WEST (merger of Moore and North West Central)
Margin Notes
Old: New Seat New seat formed from the merger of North West Central and Moore. Moore is held by National MP Shane Love with a margin of 8.5%. North West Central was won by National Vince Catania in 2021 with a margin of 1.7%. Catania resigned in 2022 and at a by-election Labor chose not to contest, National Merome Beard won with a margin of 10.5% versus the Liberal Party. In October 2023 Beard defected to the Liberal Party.
New: NAT 8.6%

MINDARIE (formerly Burns Beach)
Margin Notes
Old: ALP 26.9% MP: Mark Folkard (Labor)
Shofts north gaining Merriwa and parts of Ridgewood from Butler. Changes name from Burns Beach to Mindarie after losing the suburb of Burns Beach and parts of Currambine to Joondalup.
New: ALP 27.9%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 28.6% MP: Amber-Jade Sanderson (Labor)
Gains around 3,000 voters in Dinella and Mirrabooka from the former seat of Mirrabooka and gains part of Bassendean and Morley from Bassendean as the seat’s eastern boundary re-aligns with the Tonkin Freeway.
New: ALP 27.9%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 21.6% MP: Simon Millman (Labor)
Gains around 1100 voters in North Perth.
New: ALP 21.9%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 17.2% MP: Robyn Clarke (Labor)
Gains part of the Shire of Harvey from Collie-Preston in the south, loses Bouvard, Clifton and Herron to Dawesville.
New: ALP 17.3%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 2.8% MP: Katrina Stratton (Labor)
Gains a few hundred voters in West Perth.
New: ALP 3.1%

OAKFORD (new seat)
Margin Notes
Old: ALP % MP: (Labor)
New seat taking in some of the growing housing estates between Armadale and the Kwinana Freeway.
New: ALP 27.7%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 29.3% MP: John Carey (Labor)
Only minor adjustment to the electorates northern and western boundaries.
New: ALP 29.2%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 20.4% MP: Kevin Michel (Labor)
Gains the Shires of Ashburton and Exmouth from the abolished seat of North West Central, reducing the Labor margin.
New: ALP 17.6%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 9.0% MP: Jags Krishnan (Labor)
Labor margin boosted by gaining Parkwood from Cannington and losing Leeming to Jandakot.
New: ALP 10.9%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 37.7% MP: Magenta Marshall (Labor)
Unchanged. Magenta Marshall was elected at a 2023 by-election following the resignation of former Premier Mark McGowan.
New: ALP 37.7%

Margin Notes
Old: NAT 11.1% MP: Peter Rundle (National)
Gains the Shires of Cuballing, Kondinin, Kulin and Wickepin from Central Wheatbelt.
New: NAT 12.2%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 10.4% MP: Stuart Aubrey (Labor)
Gains Karrinyup from Carine and parts of Doubleview and Scarborough from Churchlands. Loses parts of Gwelup and North Beach to Carine, part of Innaloo and Osborne Park to Churchlands.
New: ALP 9.5%

SECRET HARBOUR (replace Warnbro)
Margin Notes
Old: ALP 33.4% MP: Paul Papalia (Labor)
New electorate name replacing Warnbro, crossing the metropolitan boundary to take in Madora Bay and Lakelands from Mandurah.
New: ALP 31.3%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 10.1% MP: Geoff Baker (Labor)
New: ALP 10.1%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 33.1% MP: Terry Healy (Labor)
New: ALP 33.1%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 27.1% MP: Jessica Shaw (Labor)
Loses areas along the Great Eastern Highway between Sawyers Valley and Wooroloo to Kalamunda, as well as Arbor Grove to West Swan in return for parts of Aveley.
New: ALP 27.3%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 30.9% MP: Chris Tallentire (Labor)
Gains Ornage Grove and parts of Maddington and Martin from Kalamunda and Forrestfield. Loses part of Kenwick and Cannington.
New: ALP 30.6%

Margin Notes
Old: LIB 4.3% MP: Libby Mettam (Liberal)
Loses the balance of Augusta-Margaret River Shire to Warren-Blackwood and gains a coastal part of the Shire of Capel.
New: LIB 4.3%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 27.8% MP: Hannah Beazley (Labor)
Gains Burswood Peninsula from Belmont.
New: ALP 27.7%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 28.4% MP: Sabine Winton (Labor)
Monor changes to the southern boundary with neighbouring Landsdale.
New: ALP 28.5%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 1.3% MP: Jane Kelsbie (Labor)
Gains the rest of Augusta Margaret River Shire from Vasse, loses the Shire of Plantagenet to Albany and part of Donnybrook-Balingup to Collie-Preston.
New: ALP 2.2%

Margin Notes
Old: ALP 34.2% MP: Rita Saffioti (Labor)
Swaps Arbor Grove with Swan Hills in exchange for part of Aveley.
New: ALP 34.8%

6 thoughts on “Western Australia State Redistribution – Final Boundaries Released”

  1. Hi Antony, just wanted to point out that on the marginal pendulum, you’ve unfortunately missed out on including Riverton, which by your projections is a marginal Labor seat held on 10.9%

  2. Hi Anthony. Thanks for the summary. I spot a small typo you may wish to correct and that in the Fremantle, the suburb is Bicton, rather than Biscton.

    As always thanks for all your efforts.

    COMMENT: Fixed. Redistribution posts can be a bit of a scramble to finish quickly.

  3. Hi Antony,

    Are we able to get a full pendulum? Given the magnitude of the swing last time that seats even 25%+ on the pendulum like Joondalup may be in play.

    COMMENT: I’ve added a full pendulum.

  4. I think the Nats won 4 seats at the 2021 election, not 3. The 4th being the now abolished North-West Central. Reduced to 3 once Merome Beard defected to the Libs.

    COMMENT: The result of the last election was Labor 53, National 4, Liberal 2. The new boundaries cause those number to become Labor 54, National 3, Liberal 2, with North West Central abolished and the new notionally Labor seat of Oakford created. The numbers don’t take account of Ms Beard’s change of party as the seat she represents has been abolished.

  5. the pendulum means nothing ultimately as the McGowan and covid factor will be removed next time. Mid West will be an interesting one to watch as we will probably see Shane Love square off against Merome Beard. Unless Merome decides to contest Pilbara which would have happened if she didn’t leave the Nats

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