Tasmanian Election – Post-Election Night Updates

In this post I go through last night’s Tasmanian election result to try and get a better handle on the final outcome. The full picture won’t emerge until after the full distribution of preferences begins on the Tuesday after Easter.

A comment on the overall results. With 83.5% counted (final turn out will be about 90%), the Liberal Party are polling 36.8% of the first preference vote, down 11.9% on 2021. Labor polled 29.2% (+1.0%), Greens 13.4% (+1.1%), the Jacqui Lambie Network 6.7% (up from zero), single Independents 8.2% (+3.0%) and other parties 5.7% (+0.1%).

The seat numbers are –

  • Liberal: have won 13 seats and could win extra seats in Braddon and Franklin to reach 15, three seats short of a majority.
  • Labor: 10 seat with the outside chance of reaching 11th seat
  • Greens: four with a strong chance of five.
  • Jacqui Lambie Network: two and an outside chance of a third
  • Independents: two likely to be elected in Kristie Johnston and David O’Byrne.

It is interesting to compare the election result to 2014 when Will Hodgman led the Liberal Party to a landslide victory. Compared to 2014, Labor’s vote is up 1.9%, the Greens down 0.4%, the Liberal Party down 14.4% and support for others +12.9%.

Support for parties other than Labor, Liberal and Greens reached 20.6%, almost double the previous record in 2021.

Bass

Sunday Lunchtime: 85.4% counted. George Town and Scottsdale pre-polls added today.

Party/Group Summary: Which parties will win the seven vacancies is clear. Three Liberal and two Labor members will be elected and the final two vacancies going to the Greens and Jacqui Lambie Network.

Candidate Summary

  • Liberal: Michael Ferguson has been re-elected with more than a quota, and Rob Fairs wins election for the first time as the second Liberal. With most Liberal preferences staying within the ticket, the third Liberal will be either a re-elected Simon Wood or a newly elected Dr Julie Sladden, which of the two will be elected will become clearer with the distribution of Ferguson’s surplus.
  • Labor: With close to a quota in their own right, both Michelle O’Byrne and Janie Finlay will be re-elected. That leaves Labor with about 0.40 of a quota as surplus but that will be short of both the Greens and Jacqui Lambie Network ticket totals so can’t elect an extra Labor member.
  • Greens: The Greens have just short of a quota with lead candidate Cecily Rosol certain of election.
  • Jacquie Lambie Network: The party appears certain of a seat with highest polling Rebekah Pentland set to be elected.
  • Liberal turned Independent MHA Lara Alexander has been defeated.
Bass (Updated Sunday 24 March)
Party Quotas Candidate Quotas
Pct Quotas Party Quotas Candidate
38.1 3.05 Liberal 1.45 *Michael Ferguson (LIB)
30.1 2.41 Labor 0.96 *Michelle O’Byrne (ALP)
11.6 0.93 Greens 0.88 *Janie Finlay (ALP)
8.2 0.65 Lambie Network 0.68 Rob Fairs (LIB)
4.1 0.33 Ungrouped 0.49 Cecily Rosol (GRN)
2.2 0.18 Alexander (IND) 0.29 Rebekah Pentland (JLN)
2.3 0.18 SFF 0.24 Angela Armstrong (JLN)
1.5 0.12 Animal Justice 0.22 *Simon Wood (LIB)
0.9 0.07 Walker (IND) 0.20 Julie Sladden (LIB)
0.7 0.05 Brown (IND) 0.20 Geoff Lyons (ALP)
0.4 0.03 Davenport (IND) 0.18 *Lara Alexander (IND)

Braddon

Sunday Lunchtime: 86.9% counted. No significant counting today.

Party/Group Summary: Six of the seven vacancies are clear. The Liberal Party will win three seats, Labor two and the Jacqui Lambie Network one. The Liberals are favoured for the final seat, with the Greens and Independent Craig Garland outside possibilities.

Candidate Summary

  • Liberal: Jeremy Rockliff has been re-elected with more than two quotas, and Felix Ellis starts the count second on the Liberal ticket with more than half a quota and certain of re-election. Roger Jaensch did well from Rockliff’s surplus in 2021 and should win the third Liberal seat. With 0.66 surplus quotas beyond three seats the Liberal Party are chasing a fourth seat which if achieved would be won by Giovanna Simpson.
  • Labor: With close to two quotas as a party total, Anita Dow and Shane Broad will be re-elected.
  • Jacquie Lambie Network: With 0.91 quotas split relatively evenly across three candidates, either Miriam Beswick or James Redgrave will be elected.
  • There is an outside chance that either the Greens’ Darren Briggs or Independent Craig Garland could catch the fourth Liberal if preference flows between the two parties are stro\ng.
Braddon (Updated Sunday 24 March)
Party Quotas Candidate Quotas
Pct Quotas Party Quotas Candidate
45.8 3.66 Liberal 2.21 *Jeremy Rockliff (LIB)
24.9 1.99 Labor 0.66 *Anita Dow (ALP)
11.4 0.91 Lambie Network 0.58 *Felix Ellis (LIB)
6.3 0.50 Greens 0.52 *Shane Broad (ALP)
5.1 0.41 Garland (IND) 0.41 Craig Garland (IND)
2.8 0.23 SFF 0.33 Miriam Beswick (JLN)
2.4 0.19 Ungrouped 0.31 James Redgrave (JLN)
1.2 0.10 Animal Justice 0.31 *Roger Jaensch (LIB)
      0.27 Darren Briggs (GRN)
      0.27 Craig Cutts (JLN)
      0.26 Chris Lynch (ALP)
      0.21 Giovanna Simpson (LIB)

Clark

Sunday Lunchtime: 83.0% counted. Kingston and Kingston Pre-Poll added this morning.

Party/Group Summary: There is no doubt over five of the seven vacancies which will split Labor two, Liberal two and one Greens. The final two seats are a race between three, with Independent Kristie Johnston ahead in the race from a second Green and third Labor member.

Candidate Summary

  • Labor: Ella Haddad will be re-elected and Josh Willie will complete his transfer from the Legislative Council. If Labor elects a third member then Stuart Benson and John Kamara lead the chasing field of Labor candidates.
  • Liberal: Simon Behrakis will be re-elected and Madeleine Ogilvie starts the count second on the Liberal ticket but could be caught by Marcus Vermey.
  • Greens: Vica Bayley will be re-elected, and the Green total vote of 1.61 quotas puts Helen Burnet in the race for one of the final vacancies.
  • Independent: Kristie Johnston starts the cut up of preferences on 0.63 quotas, ahead of the Green surplus of 0.61 quota and Labor surplus of 0.49 quotas. Johnston is likely to attract more preferences from excluded Independents which favours her chances of election. The one threat would be that neither Green candidate reaches a quota leaving both Bayley and Burnett, but in that case Johnston would elect the third Labor member.
Clark (Updated Sunday 24 March)
Party Quotas Candidate Quotas
Pct Quotas Party Quotas Candidate
30.8 2.46 Labor 0.87 Ella Haddad (ALP)
27.2 2.17 Liberal 0.78 Vica Bayley (GRN)
20.4 1.63 Greens 0.74 Josh Wllie (ALP)
7.8 0.63 Johnston (IND) 0.66 Simon Behrakis (LIB)
5.0 0.40 Hickey (IND) 0.63 Kristie Johnston (IND)
2.7 0.21 Lohberger (IND) 0.58 Madeleine Ogilvie (LIB)
1.9 0.15 Elliot (IND) 0.44 Marcus Vermey (LIB)
1.7 0.14 Animal Justice 0.43 Helen Burnet (GRN)
1.3 0.11 SFF 0.40 Sue Hickey (IND)
0.7 0.06 Local Network 0.25 Stuart Benson (ALP)
0.5 0.04 Ungrouped 0.21 John Kamara (ALP)

..


Franklin

Sunday Lunchtime: 84.5% counted. Any updates today would be out-of-division pre-polls.

Party/Group Summary: Five of the seven seats are clear, two Labor, two Liberal and one Greens. Ahead in the race for the final vacancies are a third Liberal and ex-Labor Independent David O’Byrne.

Candidate Summary

  • Liberal: Eric Abetz and Jacquie Petrusma are elected, Abetz entering state politics after his Federal career, and Petrusma returning after a period out of politics. The party is well positioned to elect a third member with the re-election of Nic Street. Dean Young, who filled Petrusma’s casual vacancy in the last term, will be defeated.
  • Labor: Dean Winter will be re-elected joined by new Labor member Meg Brown.
  • Greens: Rosalie Woodruff has polled 1.08 quotas and will be re-elected. The party has a little under half-a-quota split across six candidates and preference leakage puts the Greens behind the Liberal Party and David O’Byrne in the race for the final seat.
  • Independent: David O’Byrne has 0.72 quotas which puts him roughly equal to the third Liberal and on track to win re-election.
Franklin (Updated Sunday 24 March)
Party Quotas Candidate Quotas
Pct Quotas Party Quotas Candidate
34.1 2.73 Liberal 1.08 *Rosalie Woodruff (GRN)
27.5 2.20 Labor 0.91 *Dean Winter (ALP)
19.3 1.55 Greens 0.75 Eric Abetz (LIB)
9.0 0.72 O’Byrne (IND) 0.72 *O’Byrne (IND)
4.9 0.36 Lambie Network 0.67 Jacquie Petrusma (LIB)
1.6 0.13 Glade-Wright (IND) 0.54 *Nic Street (LIB)
1.5 0.12 Animal Justice 0.40 Meg Brown (ALP)
0.8 0.07 Mulder (IND) 0.34 *Dean Young (LIB)
0.8 0.06 Local Network 0.32 Toby Thorpe (ALP)
0.5 0.04 Ungrouped 0.21 Kaspar Deane (ALP)

Lyons

Sunday Lunchtime: 78.1% counted. George Town and Scottsdale pre-polls added today.

Party/Group Summary: The Liberal Party will elected three members, Labor two, and the Greens are well positioned to win a seat. The last seat will be a tight contest between the Jacqui Lambie Network and a third Labor member.

Candidate Summary

  • Liberal: Guy Barnett is re-elected as is Mark Shelton. Jane Howlett will be elected after resigning from the Legislative Council.
  • Labor: Rebecca White is elected with 1.70 quotas. Based on how White’s preferences flowed in 2021, Jen Butler should be re-elected. While Labor has a surplus of 0.64 beyond two quotas, there could be leakage out of the Labor ticket as part of White’s surplus, plus the other five Labor candidate start the count with less than 0.20 quotas each.
  • Greens: Tabatha Badger should be elected. The Greens start the count with a total 0.83 quotas, about 0.2 quotas ahead of chasing Labor and Lambie Network candidates and is highly unlikely to fall behind both in the cut up of preferences.
  • Jacquie Lambie Network: The party has 0.67 quotas in a race against Labor for the final seat. One of Andrew Jenner or Troy Pfitzner would be elected if the Lambie Network manages to elect a member.
  • Liberal turned Independent MHA John Tucker has been defeated.
Lyons (Updated Sunday 24 March)
Party Quotas Candidate Quotas
Pct Quotas Party Quotas Candidate
37.6 3.01 Liberal 1.70 *Rebecca White (ALP)
33.1 2.64 Labor 0.88 *Guy Barnett (LIB)
10.4 0.83 Greens 0.75 Jane Howlett (LIB)
8.3 0.67 Lambie Network 0.57 *Mark Shelton (LIB)
4.8 0.38 SFF 0.43 Tabatha Badger (GRN)
3.3 0.26 Tucker (IND) 0.31 Stephanie Cameron (LIB)
1.6 0.13 Animal Justice 0.26 *John Tucker (IND)
0.6 0.05 Ungrouped 0.26 Jen Butler (ALP)
0.3 0.025 Offord (IND) 0.24 Andrew Jenner (JLN)
      0.23 Troy Pfitzner (JLN)

1 thought on “Tasmanian Election – Post-Election Night Updates”

  1. Antony, what are the rules re HTVs in Tasmania? Are they not allowed? I haven’t been able to track them down.

    Trying to get an read on the final two seats in Franklin. Theoretically possible for micro preferences to lift Greens above third Lib, but most analysis discounts this.

    COMMENT: Preference recommendations are allowed, but unlike in other states, all candidates listed must agree to be on the recommendation. The only party to publish them are the Greens who do so to make clear who the lead candidate on the party ticket is.

    It is illegal to hand out material advocating a vote for a candidate on election day.

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