Result links – Bass | Braddon | Clark | Franklin | Lyons
FINAL FIGURES
Table of Elected and Defeated Candidates
- Re-elected 1 – Kristie Johnston (Independent)
- Re-elected 2 – Vica Bayley (Greens)
- Re-elected 3 – Ella Haddad (Labor)
- Re-elected 4 – Josh Willie (Labor)
- Re-elected 5 – Helen Burnet (Greens)
- Elected 6 – Marcus Vermey (Liberal)
- Re-elected 7 – Madeleine Ogilvie (Liberal)
- Defeated – Simon Behrakis (Liberal)
Final Figures
At the end of the count Madeleine Ogilvie was declared the winner of the seventh seat defeated party colleague Simon Behrakis 7,082 votes (0.885 quotas) to 6,902 (0.862 quotas). Below is the count after all preferences had been distributed.
2:45pm – Burnet surplus dealt with an Liberal Marcus Vermey passes quota to be elected 6 and win the first Liberal seat. Madeleine Ogilvie finishes ahead of Simon Behrakis to win the second Liberal seat while Behrakis is defeated.
1:25pm – Archer fully excluded. There is now a 400 vote surplus for Helen Burnet to be distributed, all votes received from Archer. Ogilvie leads Behrakis by 150 so it will be near impossible to turn around that lead from here.
Update 12:15 – All full value votes for Elise Archer have now been distributed. These have elected Helen Burnet to the second Green seat and also pushed Madeleine Ogilvie 70 votes ahead of Simon Behrakis in the race for the second Liberal Seat. There are still 660 reduced transfer value votes for Archer to be distributed. None will have been cast for a Liberal candidate. Then there will be Burnet’s surplus based on Archer’s full value votes. Here’s the current totals.
The TEC has excluded and begun distributing the preferences Labor’s third placed candidate Luke Martin. This will result in the election of Labor’s Ella Haddad and Josh Willie, probably in that order. That may elect the second Green Helen Burnett and require her surplus to be distributed. Whether Burnet is elected or not, the next crucial count will be the exclusion of Independent candidate and former Liberal MP Elise Archer. Her preferences will determine which two Liberals of Marcus Vermey (most likely to be elected), Simon Behrakis and Madeleine Ogilvie will be elected.
Update – Haddad elected 3, Willie 4. The surpluses of both candidates have now been distributed and the Greens Helen Burnett has yet to reach quota. That means Elise Archer will be the next candidate excluded and this will determine whether Simon Behrakis of Medeleine Ogilvie win the second Liberal seat, assuming Marcus Vermey reaches quota first.
Final for Wednesday
Tomorrow’s count will start with the distribution of Vica Bayley’s small surplus.
Vica Bayley holds his seat for the Greens and becomes the second elected candidate in Clark.
The exclusion of the third Greens candidate has left Vica Bayley three votes short of a quota. He is certain to be elected on the exclusion of Labor candidate John Kamara but might be pushed into third place on the order of election if a Labor candidate is elected and has more votes than Bayley after Kamara’s preferences.
After Count 30
The exclusion of the fourth Liberal candidate resolved nothing in terms of who will win the second Liberal seat. Marcus Vermey is far enough ahead to be certain of victory, but Simon Behrakis is only 108 votes ahead of Madeleine Ogilvie. Surplus Green and Labor preferences over the next few days will alter the totals slightly, but it appears it will take until the exclusion of former Liberal MP turned Independent Elise Archer to determine whether Behrakis or Ogilvie will win.
After Count 28
The exclusion of the fifth placed Liberal Jessica Barnett delivered a huge boost to the re-election prospects of Madeleine Ogilvie. She now trails Simon Behrakis by only 86 votes. Is this another case of the Hare-Clark phenomena of preferences from women candidates often favouring other women? The next candidate to be excluded is the 4th Liberal Marilena Di Florio, and her preferences will determine whether Behrakis or Ogilvie are elected. Or we may be waiting until after Elise Archer is excluded.
Labor candidate Tess McLaughlin is currently being excluded which will push both Ella Haddad and Josh Willie closer to but not over quota. After that the next candidate to be excluded is fifth place Liberal Jessica Barnett. Her preference may make clearer whether Behrakis or Ogilvie will win the second Liberal seat. That distribution should take place early this afternoon.
After Count 22
The sixth placed Liberal Edwin Johnston has been excluded. 90% of his preferences stayed in the Liberal ticket with 348 favouring Marcus Vermey, 284 Madeleine Ogilvie and 171 Simon Behrakis. So it is remains unclear whether Behrakis or Ogilvie will win the second Liberal seat though Behrakis is favoured because he is in the lead.
The next two counts will exclude lowest polling Greens and Labor candidates but won’t put another candidate over quota. As the chart below shows, the ‘Other’ vote for each party is slowing squeezing into the totals for continuing candidates competing for election. Independent Elise Archer has done well to reach 0.39 quotas but her only source of preferences is leakage out of party tickets and she currently trails the seven candidates competing for a seat and cannot catch any of them. Archer may be the last candidate excluded though.
After Count 18 – late Tuesday
Summary of Day 1 counting – After the election of Kristie Johnston, three Green, two Labor and one Liberal candidate along with two ungrouped Independents were excluded. There’s no doubt over the party result, 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 2 Greens plus Johnston. The only question is whether Simon Behrakis or Madeleine Ogilvie win the second Liberal seat. The gap between the two narrowed by a tiny 0.004 quotas in today’s counting which leaves Behrakis ahead by 0.08 quotas. The lowest polling Liberal has already been excluded
What to look for on day 2 – The first candidate excluded today will be a second Liberal. Low polling candidates on the Liberal, Labor and Greens tickets will be excluded today but it may be much later in the day before any candidates are declared elected. There may be a third Liberal excluded today which will make the battle for the second Liberal position clearer. It may not happen today, but the preferences of ex-Liberal now Independent candidate Elise Archer could be important.
Count 2 – Kristie Johnston elected, surplus distributed
Of Johnston’s surplus, 41% flowed to Greens candidates as preferences. 28% to Independent and former Liberal MP Elise Archer.
At Count 1 (Primary Vote Totals)
It is clear in Clark that Independent Kristie Johnston will be the first elected as she has more than a quota on first preferences. The TEC will have undertaken a preliminary count out of Johnston’s preferences. Once the final postal votes are included and the quota set, the distribution of Johnston’s surplus should be completed quickly.
Johnston stood as a single candidate group which means her surplus preferences will all flow to candidates of other parties and groups. How that impacts total votes for other candidates will be of interest.
I am going to try and visualise the count over the next few days using a sequence of pie charts, a chart I rarely use but is useful to illustrate an unfolding Hare-Clark count.
On primary votes at Count 1 (figures to be finalised this morning) the totals by party expressed as quotas are Liberal 2.45 quotas, Labor 2.16, Greens 1.76, Kristie Johnston 1.20 quotas, Independent Elise Archer 0.27 quotas and Ungrouped Independents 0.15 quotas. The result looks set to be unchanged on 2024, Liberal two members, Labor two, Greens two and Kristie Johnston. It is certain that Marcus Vermey will be a new Liberal MP, buit it is unclear whether he will replace Simon Berhrakis or Madeleine Ogilvie.
The chart below simplifies the count for 26 candidates down to 9 slices for candidates with a significant first preference vote and chance of election. The remaining 4 slices accumulate totals by party for candidates with little chance of election, but whose preferences will have a role in determining who is elected. Each slice show the total for each candidates expressed as quotas.