TAS2025 – Bass – Tracking the Distribution of Preferences

Result links – Bass | Braddon | Clark | Franklin | Lyons

Count now Final

BASS – Table of Elected and Defeated Candidates

• Elected 1 – Bridget Archer (Liberal)
• Re-elected 2 – Janie Finlay (Labor)
• Re-elected 3 – Michael Ferguson (Liberal)
• Re-elected 4 – Cecily Rosol (Greens)
• Re-elected 5 – Rob Fairs (Liberal)
• Elected 6 – George Razay (Independent)
• Elected 7 – Jess Greene (Labor)
• Retired – Michelle O’Byrne (Labor)
• Defeated – Simon Wood (Liberal)
• Defeated – Rebekah Pentland (Independent, ex-Jacqui Lambie network)

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Count now final. Razay elected 6, Jess Greene 7.

Final tally
George Razay (IND) – 6,968 (0.826 quotas) elected 6
Jess Greene (ALP) – 6,555 (0.777 quotas) elected 7
Geoff Lyons (ALP) 6,294 (0.746 quotas)
Final exhausted 5,473 (0.649 quotas). See final pie chart below.

Frydrych’s preferences went 40% to Razay, 10% to Greene, 12% Lyons and 38% exhausted.

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Update 10:45am – Fairs’ surplus distributed. With Frydrych now to be excluded, Lyons leads Razay by only 646 votes.

Current tallies
6,101 – Jess Greene (ALP)
5,754 – Geoff Lyons (ALP)
5,108 – George Razay (IND)
4,660 – Michal Frydrych (SFF) to be distributed
Quota for election 8,432

Count from here is likely to see Razay move ahead of Geoff Lyons on Frydrych preferences. Razay may also pass Jess Greene but Greene would then be elected to the 6th seat. I’m not sure if this would be after Lyons’ prefererences are distributed, or whether with only two candidates left standing, both Razay and Greene would be declared elected without distributing Lyons’ preferences. Not all states do the same thing at this final point of the count.

Either way, Razay and Greene will be declared elected in some order. If Frydrych’s preferences to Razay are a strong flow, in theory he could reach quota in his own right with Greene elected 7th.

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10am Saturday – Wood’s final votes have now been excluded. Lyons’ lead over Razay reduced further to 700 votes. There would have to be a massive rate of exhausted preference from Frydrych, or strong flows from the SFF to Labor, for Razay not to be elected. But we will see when the distribution occurs.

Current tallies
6,048 – Jess Greene (ALP)
5,681 – Geoff Lyons (ALP)
4,981 – George Razay (IND)
4,516 – Michal Frydrych (SFF) to be distributed after Fair’s surplus
1,378 – Fairs’ surplus to be distributed first
Quota for election 8,432

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Simon Wood has been mostly excluded except for 1,103 reduced transfer value and his preferences elected party colleague Rob Fairs. Wood’s residual votes will now be distributed, followed by Rob Fairs’ surplus of 1,288 votes. More than half of these are likely to exhaust. Based on Wood’s distribution, what preferences do flow will favour Razay over the Labor candidates.

At the moment Labor’s Jess Greene is on 5,989, Labor’s Geoff Lyons on 5,586, Independent George Razay on 4,846 and Michal Frydrych 4,438. So Lyons leads Razay by 740 votes. Based on how Rebekah Pentland’s preferences flowed, I think Razay should easily close this gap on Frydrych’s preferences which will mean the last two seats will be won by Jess Greene and George Razay, probably in that order.

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Final for Friday

Here’s the pie chart of the final figures for Friday. For how the count will unfold from here, see the notes under the table which remain correct except for the first point where the final figures now account for Anderson’s exclusion.

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How the count will unfold from here.

• Labor’s Melissa Anderson will be the next candidate excluded. Her distributed preferences which will put Labor’s Jess Greene and Geoff Lyons into the lead. (Done)
• Liberal Simon Wood will be then be excluded and all his Transfer Value = 1.0 votes distributed which will elect Liberal Rob Fairs to the fifth seat.
• A small number of Wood’s reduced transfer value votes will then be distributed with Fairs unable to receive any more preferences.
• Fairs’ surplus will then be distributed. It will see a high rate of exhaustion as no Liberals remain in the count at this point. How those votes with preferences flow to other parties could be important.
• Unless something happens with preferences from the Liberals, Michal Frydrych (SFF) will be the next excluded and his preferences distributed.
• At this point three candidates will be left, Independent George Razay and Labor’s Jess Greene and Geoff Lyons. Whoever is third out of these three candidates will elect the other two.
• The TEC says counting will continue beyond 6pm tonight but the final distributions will not be done until Saturday morning.

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Big movement with the distribution of Rebekah Pentland. Her preferences went 1,016 to Independent George Razay but only 608 to SFF’s Michal Frydrych, Razay now 343 votes ahead of Frydrych. Labor candidate Melissa Anderson will be next excluded and her preferences will put Labor’s Geoff Lyons and Jess Greene above 0.65 quotas each. After that, Liberal Simon Wood will be excluded, meaning he has lost his seat, and then Frydrych will be the next excluded.

It will then be a battle of preferences from Frydrych on whether the final two seats will split one Labor plus George Razay, or whether Labor will win both final seats which would mean Bass is the only seat to elect three Labor MLAs.

I would expect Frydrych’s preferences will heavily favour Razay. Wood’s preferences will mostly elect Rob Fairs and most preferences flowing from there will be in Fair’s surplus and have a high rate of exhaustion. Razay winning election along with one of Labor’s Geoff Lyons and Jess Greene is more likely that the two Labor candidates winning election.

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3:30pm Friday Noon Friday

The last exclusion left Labor’s Jess Greene and Geoff Lyon ahead of fourth Liberal Simon Wood but just 286 votes apart. Both Labor candidates will improve their position when fourth Labor candidate Melissa Anderson is excluded.

Just 269 votes behind Wood ia Michal Fyrdrych (SFF) and 65 behind him Independent George Razay. 517 votes behind is Rebekah Pentland, falling 21 mvotes short of Labor’s fourth candidate at this exclusion point.

Pentland is currently being excluded. The question is where will her preferences. Will they favour Razay or Frydrych? Beyond that, can they narrow the gap to Wood and the two Labor candidates?

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Noon Friday
The next exclusion will be of Liberal Chris Gatenby which will put Rob Fairs closer to but not over quota, and probably leave Liberal Simon Wood as the fourth Liberal with something over 0.4 quotas.

Then the second Greens candidate Lauren Ball will go out. Her preferences will favour Labor but with a high exhaustion rate. Then Labor’s Melissa Anderson will be excluded and put fellow Labor candidates Geoff Lyons and Jess Green to somewhere above 0.6 quotas.

Then the count will get interesting as I expect Independent Rebekah Pentland to be excluded. How her preferences flow to Independent George Razay and the SFF’s Michal Frydrych could have a crucial impact on the rest of the count.

If the two Labor candidates are both above 0.6 quotas, then one of Frydrych or Razay need to get ahead of them to prevent Labor electing both and filling three seats. It could come down to how preferences flow when Liberal Wood is eventually excluded as I can’t see how he gets ahead of the Labor candidates if they split Labor’s remaining votes evenly.

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Update: 4:10pm Thursday, end of counting for day, Count 55

The totals below are at the end of counting on Thursday. At this stage if Michal Frydrych (SFF) gets a reasonable flow of preferences from Independents George Razay and Rebekah Pentland he has a very good chance of winning the seventh seat. If Pentland’s preferences put Razay ahead of Frydrych, then it would Razay who could win. What could stop them is if once accumulated, the candidate that comes out of that three-way split falls short the final two candidates on the Labor and Liberal ticket in which case the third party would be excluded. The fifth placed Labor candidate will be excluded on Friday morning.

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Next exclusion will be Liberal Julie Sladden. It will be good for the Liberals chances of winning four seats if her preferences favour Simon Wood over Rob Fairs to keep both in the count.

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Update 12:30 – The exclusion of Labor’s Will Gordon still left labor’s Jess Greene and Geoff Lyons essentially tied on 0.36 quotas. Currently being excluded is the third placed Greens candidate who may elected Cecily Rosol or perhaps leave her just short of quota.

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The exclusion of National Angela Armstrong saw her preferences split evenly three ways between Frydrych, Razay and Pentland which means it is still unclear which of the three will make the final count.

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Final for Wednesday

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An update after count 37. The first Labor candidate has been excluded and the preferences flows continue to leave Geoff Lyons and Jess Greene neck and neck for second place on the Labor ticket. If this trend continues they are likely to finish around 0.6 quotas each which will be facing off potentially against a Liberal vote divided between two candidates, and one of the minor parties and Independents.

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Michael Ferguson has reached quota and is the third candidate elected.

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The next exclusion will be the lowest Liberal candidate Sarah Quaile who has 923 votes. Michael Ferguson is currently 223 votes short of quota and may be elected on Quaile’s surplus, though Liberal prospects of winning a fourth seat would be helped if Ferguson is still short of a quota.

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After Count 24

There is only one Independent left in the race, ex-Lambie Network member Rebekah Pentland with 0.29 quotas. Independent George Razay has 0.31 quotas and Michal Frydrych (SFF) on 0.35. The next few counts will exclude the two Nationals candidates who currently have 0.18 quotas. One of Razay or Frydrych could win the final seat with Frydrych favoured if they do.

The thing that could stop them is the split of votes on the Labor ticket. Both Geoff Lyons and Jess Greene could get above 0.6 quotas, especially with a Green surplus beyond one quota. The rate of exhausted preferences will play a role on who wins the last seat, especially the exhaustion rate when the Green surplus is distributed, and the flow between the Nationals, SFF, Razay and Pentland when any of them are excluded.

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After Count 12 – end of counting Tuesday

Summary of Day 1 counting – After Bridget Archer and Janie Finlay were elected and their surplus preferences distributed, the count continued with the exclusion of three ungrouped independents. It remains clear that Liberals Michael Ferguson and Rob Fairs will be elected, as will Cecily Rosol for the Greens. The identity of second Labor candidate to be elected is still unclear though Geoff Lyons slightly increased his lead over Jess Greene during the day. The last seat is to be resolved, see next paragraph.

What to look for on day 2 – The final seat remains to be determined. Independent George Razay has 0.29 quotas and and Michal Frydrych (SFF) 0.34. The Greens surplus is 0.34 quotas but could decline as five Greens will have to be excluded before that quota comes into play. The Liberal surplus is 0.29 quotas and will be in play if Rob Fairs does not reach quota until very late in the count. If Labor’s Geoff Lyons and Jess Greene remain neck and neck, there is a chance that both could have around 0.6 quotas towards the end of the count which could see both elected and deliver Labor a third seat. Today’s counting will start with the exclusion of two more Ungrouped candidates, a lower order Greens candidate and then one of the two National candidates.

The count at the end of Tuesday is shown below.

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After Count 3 – Bridget Archer (Liberal) and Janie Finlay (Labor) elected and surpluses distributed.

Count 2 saw around 11% of Archer’s ballot papers leaked out of the ticket reducing the party’s total to 3.28 quotas. Michael Ferguson is still short of a quota. Count 3 excluded Labor’s Janie Finlay and distributed her small surplus.

Party totals now Liberal 3.28 quotas, Labor 2.22, Greens 1.33, SFF 0.33, Nationals 0.17, Razay 0.29, Others 0.38. On those numbers SFF are probably ahead in the race unless an even split between candidates develops on one of the party tickets. The next few counts will exclude and distribute preferences for candidates in the Ungrouped column with little impact on the count so I won’t publish individual count updates.

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Count 1 (Primary Vote Totals)

It is clear in Bass that Bridget Archer will be the first candidate declared elected as she is well over quota. The TEC will have undertaken a preliminary count out of Archer’s preferences. Once the final postal votes are included and the quota set, the distribution of Archer’s surplus should be completed quickly.

The distribution of Archer’s preferences is a critical step in assessing how the count in Bass will unfold. If Archer has attracted a significant number of first preference votes with next preference for a candidates in another party’s ticket, then there will be what we call ‘leakage’ of preferences out of the Liberal ticket. This will reduce the total votes held by Liberal candidates and reduce the party’s surplus beyond three quotas. The best chance of the Liberal Party winning four seats in Bass is for its vote beyond two quotas to be split relatively evenly between two candidates.

I am going to try and visualise the count over the next few days using a sequence of pie charts, a chart I rarely use but is useful to illustrate an unfolding Hare-Clark count.

On primary votes at Count 1 (figures to be finalised this morning) the totals by party expressed as quotas are Liberal 3.35 quotas, Labor 2.20, Greens 1.32, Shooters Fishers and Farmers 0.33, National 0.16, George Razzy 0.28 and Ungrouped candidates 0.37. It is clear that the Liberal Party will elect three members, Labor two, the Greens one but the seventh member to be elected is unclear at this stage.

The chart below simplifies the count for 32 candidates down to 9 slices for candidates with a significant first preference vote and chance of election. The remaining 5 slices accumulate totals by party for candidates with little chance of election, but whose preferences will have a role in determining who is elected. Each slice shows the total expressed as quotas.

After Archer’s election, Labor’s over-quota Janie Finley will be declared elected and her surplus distributed. Her surplus is small and will have little impact on the count.

If Archer’s surplus puts fellow Liberal Michael Ferguson over quota, then the next step will be to declare him elected to the third seat and distribute his surplus. Even if he does not reach quota at this point, Ferguson appears certain be the third candidate elected.