Result links – Bass | Braddon | Clark | Franklin | Lyons
Final Figures
Table of Elected and Defeated Candidates
- Re-elected 1 – Guy Barnett (Liberal)
- Re-elected 2 – Jane Howlett (Liberal)
- Re-elected 3 – Tabatha Badger (Greens)
- Re-elected 4 – Jen Butler (Labor)
- Elected 5 – Brian Mitchell (Labor)
- Re-elected 6 – Mark Shelton (Liberal)
- Elected 7 – Carlo Di Falco (SFF)
- Defeated – Casey Farrell (Labor)
- Defeated – Andrew Jenner (Nationals, formerly Jacqui Lambie Network)
Final figures published
Both Labor candidates reached quota. After the distribution of Labor surplus votes, many of which exhausted, only three candidates remained for two vacancies and Mark Shelton (Liberal) and Carlo Di Falco (SFF) were declared elected to the final two seats, Liberal Stephanie Cameron missing out on election.
Noon update – the order of election is now clear. Jen Butler has filled the fourth seat. The exclusion of Richard Goss will elect Labor’s Brian Mitchell. After that the exclusion of Liberal Stephanie Cameron will elect Liberal Mark Shelton. At some point after that Carlo Di Falco will formally be officially declared elected to the seventh seat.
Friday 9:45am – exclusion of John Tucker confirms Carlo Di Falco (Shooters Fishers and Farmers) has won the seventh seat in Lyons.
Update: Final for Thursday Count 73
The next exclusion will be Nationals candidate John Tucker. If there is a strong flow of preferences to Carli Do Falco (SFF) it will ensure he wins the seat held by the Jacqui Lambie Network’s Andrew Jenner in the last parliament. Even with a moderate flow from Tucker, Di Falco is heavily favoured to win.
Update: 3:00pm Thursday Count 69
The next exclusion will be Liberal Richard Hallet. After him it should be Nationals candidate John Tucker. If there is any significant flow of his preferences to Carlo Di Falco (SFF) then it seems certain he will win the final seat in Lyons.
Thursday 9:45am
The next exclusion will be ungrouped Independent Michelle Drouclis and it will be interesting to see how many preferences flow to Di Carlo (SFF). (SFF gained 309 but the Greens received more. I third of her votes exhausted preferences at this point.)
Next out is Liberal candidate Lyne, followed possibly by either a second Liberal, but then definitely by the second Green that will elected Tabatha Badger, then Labor candidate Cambell goe out. Then the distribution likely to determine whether Carlo Di Falco is assured of victory. It is now certain that Tabatha Badger will be ele3cted to the third seat.
Final for Wednesday
Carlo Di Falco continues to gather preferences, the most recent boost being leakage out of the Nationals ticket on the exclusion of Andrew Jenner and Independent Angelo Offord. You would expect Di Falco to gain more preferences on the exclusion of John Tucker (NAT) and Independent Michelle Dracoulis. There would need to be a good flow of preferences to the Liberals for Di Falco not to win.
Second National and ex-Jacqui Lambie MP Andrew Jenner is the candidate currently being excluded. It will be interesting to see if his preferences flow to John Tucker or how much leakage there is.
End of Counting Tuesday after Count 20
Four ungrouped Independent and three Nationals have been excluded. There has been a regular drift of preferences to Carlo Di Falco (SFF) and this has firmed up his prospects of election. Wednesday’s count will begin with the exclusion of further Independents and some lower polling Greens candidates.
After Count 3 (Liberals Barnett and Howlett elected, surpluses distributed)
Liberal Guy Barnett was declared elected and his small surplus elected party colleague Jane Howlett to the second Liberal seat followed by the distribution of her even smaller surplus.
At Count 1 (Primary Vote Totals)
I am going to try and visualise the count over the next few days using a sequence of pie charts, a chart I rarely use but is useful to illustrate an unfolding Hare-Clark count.
On primary votes at Count 1 (figures to be finalised this morning) the totals by party expressed as quotas are Liberal 3.36 quotas, Labor 2.28, Greens 1.08, Shooters Fishers of Farmers 0.54, Nationals 0.34 and Independent 0.40. The certain party numbers are 3 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Green with the final seat unclear but SFF candidate Carlo Di Falco is favoured.
The chart below simplifies the count for 35 candidates down to 9 slices for candidates with a significant first preference vote and chance of election. The remaining 4 slices accumulate totals by party for candidates with little chance of but who preferences could be inmportant to who is elected.
Dear Antony,
May I ask why the last candidate remaining for Lyons was not excluded, and preferences distributed, instead declaring Shelton elected 6, and Di Falco elected 7? I know it isn’t likely, but isn’t it at least *possible* that Cameron’s preferences would have flowed so heavily to Di Falco, such that the order of election were reversed? What would happen in the case of a vacancy?
As a side note, thank you for the commentary and detailed explanation of the Hare-Clark system on another post, and your service at the ABC over the years. The only reason I’m asking this question is that I wish to have a grasp of how this system works more accurately than I do now.
All the best.
COMMENT: The order of election does not matter much. If there are only two candidates left to fill two vacancies, the act simply specifies they both be declared elected and states their primary vote at that stage is used to determine order. There seems little point conducting an extra count to establish an order of election.
I really liked the pie charts Antony. So very helpful!!