western australia

Preference Flows at the Secret Harbour By-Election

A quick break from my holiday to deal with some nonsense claims made about preference flows at the Secret Harbour by-election.

In this YouTube video, Topher Field uses some weird maths to come to the conclusion that the Secret Harbour by-election saw a record flow of Liberal and right-wing candidate preference flows to One Nation.

It is a bit hard to be clear what he is saying, but I think he comes to the conclusion that once you exclude left-wing parties from the calculations, 88% of preferences from right parties, including the Liberal Party, flowed to One Nation.

This claim is rubbish and preference flow data released by the WA Electoral Commission shows that claim to be wrong.
Read More »Preference Flows at the Secret Harbour By-Election

FED2025 – Western Australia House Results

In 2022 it was the huge swing to Labor in Western Australia that delivered majority status to the Albanese government.

In 2025 the WA result was less dramatic, more a case of Labor’s position firming as the rest of the nation caught up with the west’s trend.

WA’s 2022 swing to Labor was a whopping 10.5% compared to 2.9% east of the border. Western Australia produced the smallest state swing to Labor in 2025, just 0.9%, but against a larger 3.3% swing in the rest of the nation.

Over two elections since 2019, the two-party preferred swing to Labor in Western Australia has been 11.4% against 6.2% in the rest of Australia. In six years Western Australia has gone from being a bulwark for the Coalition to being a bastion for Labor at both state and federal elections.Read More »FED2025 – Western Australia House Results

2025 Western Australia Election – Lower House Results

This post will update over the next two weeks as counting for the 2025 Western Australian Legislative Assembly (lower house) election is finalised.

Originally the post just covered changes in members elected at the election, but I’ve now added a long analysis comparing the result of the 2017 and 2025 elections. This compares Labor’s then best but now third best ever result at a WA election, with 2025 which is now the new second best result. It is hard to compare either with the mega-landslide result in 2021.

But comparing 2025 to 2021 state-wide, Labor’s primary vote in the metropolitan area was down 18.3%, but the Liberal primary vote was up only 6.8%, nearly two-thirds of the lost primary vote since 2021 went to third parties before translating into an 11.9% two-party preferred swing. That still left Labor with a better result in vote and seat terms than in 2017.

Updates to the changing membership table since the post was first updated are –

  • Albany was confirmed as a National rather than a Liberal gain from Labor.
  • Warren-Blackwood was confirmed as a National gain from Labor.
  • Pilbara was confirmed as a Labor retain and has been removed from the table of membership changes inside the post.
  • Labor continues to lead in Kalgoorlie with the result to be determined by a distribution of preferences on Saturday 22 March.
  • Kalamunda has been won by the Liberal Party after a re-count.
  • Kalgoorlie – Labor wins after distribution of preferences.
  • Thornlie – Labor’s Colleen Egan wins easily, but Independent Kevin McDonald has come from fourth place on 10.2% of the vote to finish second after preferences. McDonald was the Liberal candidate for the seat in 2021.

Read More »2025 Western Australia Election – Lower House Results

WA 2025 – Summary of Parties and Candidates

Nominations closed yesterday for the Western Australian election. At this stage I have been unable get hold of the published data file of nominations but have been able to confirm the lower house numbers. I believe I have also sorted out the upper house numbers.

A total of 398 candidates have nominated for the lower house, the Legislative Assembly. There are four electorates with only four candidates (Cannington, Carine, Hillarys and Perth) and eight electorates with nine candidates (Albany, Bateman, Geraldton, Joondalup, Kalgoorlie, Kwinana, Nedlands and Southern River). This is down from 463 candidates in 2021.

I await formal confirmation but I understand the Legislative Council numbers are as follows. There are 148 candidates across 13 groups and an ungrouped column. This is well down on the 325 candidates that contested the upper house in 2021. New party registration rules mean there are fewer parties, and instead of nominating two candidates in each of six regions, parties need only nominate five candidates on the state-wide ballot for access to an above-the-line voting square on the ballot paper.

More on party affiliations and the candidate numbers inside the post. Read More »WA 2025 – Summary of Parties and Candidates

WA2025 – my guide to the 2025 Election has been published

A Federal election is looming over the political horizon, but before then (probably) there is a Western Australian election to be held on March 8.

My guide to the WA election has just been published at this link by the ABC.

The guide has the usual features, a preview, a profile page for each electorate including historic and electoral background, past results and profiles of candidates. There’s the usual site indexes by candidate name, by electorate name and margin. A Legislative Council preview and candidate listing will follow in the next few days.

Tomorrow I should also publish guides for the Victorian by-elections to be held in Prahran and Werribee on 8 February. I’ll be doing a full results service that evening. I also hope to have a Federal guide up by the end of this month.

Inside the post there’s a teaser to the WA guide preview.Read More »WA2025 – my guide to the 2025 Election has been published

2024 Federal Redistribution – Final Boundaries for Western Australia Released

Update Tuesday 24 September – the redistribution has been finalised and all maps and data released.

Update Friday 22 November – I took a fine toothed comb to SA1s that were split or merged in the redistribution and have re-calculated margins. No major changes and the final estimates have been included in the table.

On Thursday 5 September, the Redistribution Committee for Western Australia released the state’s new Federal electoral boundaries. Draft boundaries were released in May and opened for public comment. This final version will be formally gazetted later this month and will be used for the first time at next year’s Federal election.

The redistribution has taken place to increase the number of WA federal divisions from 15 to 16.

The original post follows.

A new division called Bullwinkel has been created covering Perth’s outer east and the rural Avon Valley to the east. A map of the new electorate is included in this post. The name Bullwinkel honours Lieutenant Colonel Vivian Bullwinkel AO MBE ARRC ED FNM FRCNA (1915–2000), a civilian and military nurse who was the sole survivor of the 1942 Bangka Island massacre and a prisoner of war. The name recognises her dedication to honouring victims of war crimes, service to nursing, and the community, in both her civilian and military service. This electoral division name also honours the contribution of military medical personnel and recognises those who were prisoners of war.

The final boundaries have been released and involve only minor changes. These are –

  • Waroona Shire remains in Canning where the draft moved it into Forrest.
  • The suburb of Malaga remains in Cowan having originally been proposed for transfer to Hasluck.
  • Part of Kardinya remains in Fremantle after having been proposed for transfer to Tangney.
  • Part of Leeming proposed to be in Fremantle is now in Tangney.

These are very minor changes and the data files required to re-calculate margins will not be available for several weeks. I will update the post when they are available.

At this state the page and its included tables reflect the draft boundaries released earlier this year. I have noted where there are changes but doubt these will have any significant impact on the estimated new margins shown.

The political implications of the boundaries are –

  • The new seat of Bullwinkel is a notional Labor seat using the unusually good Labor results at the 2022 federal election. At a more normal election, and without a sitting member, Bullwinkel will be very difficult seat for Labor to notionally retain.
  • The creation of Bullwinkel results in a significant strengthening of Labor’s position in Hasluck, the Labor margin increasing from 6.0% to 10.0%.
  • Curtin sees only a minor change to boundaries meaning the redistribution has no impact on Liberal attempts to defeat Independent Kate Chaney.
  • Labor’s other marginal seats see only minor changes, Pearce’s Labor margin now 8.8%, Swan 9.4% and Tangney 2.9%.
  • On paper the Liberal margin in Canning is reduced to 1.1% but sitting MP Andrew Hastie would only be in trouble if Labor had an increase in its vote compared to 2022, a scenario that does not seem likely.
  • Moore remains a marginal seat, but less important than the redistribution is Ian Goodenough being replaced as Liberal candidate by Vince Connelly. If Goodenough were to re-contest as an Independent or National Party (one rumour) candidate, it would create a more complex contest.
Change in Seats Held by Party
Labor Liberal Independent Total
Old boundaries 9 5 1 15
New boundaries 10 5 1 16

Based on the two-party preferred results, including the underlying Labor-Coalition nature of the Independent held seat of Curtin, the changes in two-party preferred holdings is –

  • Old Boundaries 2PP: Labor 9, Liberal 6
  • New Boundaries 2PP: Labor 10, Liberal 6

Tables summarising the impact of the redistribution on each seat is included inside the post.
Read More »2024 Federal Redistribution – Final Boundaries for Western Australia Released

Proposed Federal Electoral Boundaries Released for Western Australia

The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) will release draft electoral boundaries for Western Australia on Friday, the time provisionally set for lunchtime AEST. Western Australia will be gaining a seat in the redistribution, the number of members to be elected at the next election increased from 15 to 16 seats.

Once the draft boundaries are released I’ll give a brief comment on the newly created seat, but it will take time and some serious number crunching to work out the full consequences of the new boundaries.

I’ve now double checked every discrepancy and my figures are final.

The major changes are that the new seat of Bullwinkel is a marginal Labor seat, Hasluck is made safer for Labor and Canning is made more marginal for the Liberal Party.

The new electorate is named in honour of Lieutenant Colonel Vivian Bullwinkel AO MBE ARRC ED FNM FRCNA (1915–2000), a civilian and military nurse who was the sole survivor of the 1942 Bangka Island massacre and a prisoner of war. The name recognises her dedication to honouring victims of war crimes, service to nursing, and the community, in both her civilian and military service. This electoral division name also honours the contribution of military medical personnel and recognises those who were prisoners of war.

The table below of seats held by party will be updated during my various parses of the data.

Change in Seats Held by Party
Labor Liberal Independent Total
Old boundaries 9 5 1 15
New boundaries 10 5 1 16

Based on the two-party preferred results, including the underlying Labor-Coalition nature of the Independent held seat of Curtin, the changes in two-party preferred holdings are –

  • Old Boundaries 2PP: Labor 9, Liberal 6
  • New Boundaries 2PP: Labor 10, Liberal 6

A seat table comparing margins can be found inside the post.Read More »Proposed Federal Electoral Boundaries Released for Western Australia

WA Federal Redistribution Prospects using Updated Enrolment Data

Last October, eagle eyed observers spotted that there was something wrong with enrolment projection data released by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC). The data had been released as base data for redistributions in Victoria and Western Australia. Data for the NSW redistribution was not affected.

The same enrolment growth rate had been applied across both states down to local statistical area level. This was a ridiculous assumption. It turned out the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) had provided the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) with the wrong data.

In the last few days the has AEC released corrected enrolment projections with growth rates that vary across both states. This post examines how this new data will influence the redistribution in Western Australia. A second post, hopefully tomorrow, will run through a similar analysis for Victoria.

In a previous post I explained why the seat numbers by state are changing. Another post, now superseded by the post you are reading, looked at boundary change implications from last October’s initial release of incorrect enrolment projections.

What doesn’t change is that Western Australia is gaining a seat in the current redistribution, restoring the 16th seat removed three years ago. Population trends mean the new seat will be created in a different part of Perth than the previously abolished seat of Stirling.

In short, the projected enrolment data makes even clearer that WA’s new seat will be created in Perth’s east. The other 12 Perth seats will shuffle west towards the Indian Ocean. Current enrolment data, and last October’s incorrect projected enrolments, indicated that a Perth seat would need to cross the metropolitan boundary. The new projections remove this prospect meaning the redistribution will be largely confined to metropolitan Perth.Read More »WA Federal Redistribution Prospects using Updated Enrolment Data

Western Australia State Redistribution – Final Boundaries Released

The WA Electoral Redistribution has released the final version of the electoral boundaries on which the next election will be fought.

The most significant change introduced by the new boundaries is the merging of the rural seats of Moore and North West Central to create a new seat called Mid-West. This merges two National-held seats into one, a decision that has already had consequences with National MLA for North West Central Merome Beard defecting to the Liberal Party.

The abolition of a regional seat is matched by the creation of a new seat in Perth. The new seat is called Oakford, covering growing suburbs between Armadale and the Kwinana Freeway. Unsurprisingly given the Labor landslide result in 2021, Oakford is a notional Labor seat.

In 2021 Labor won 53 seats to two Liberals and three Nationals. On the old boundaries the Liberals and Nationals needed a uniform swing of 23.4% to gain the 24 seats needed for government. The new boundaries do little to alter the swing needed.

Full detail of the change of margin for all seats can be found inside the post. But first, here’s my calculations for the new electoral pendulum. Seats gained by Labor at the 2021 election are underlined, which gives perspective on the size of the swing needed just to bring the Coalition back to its position after the 2017 election.

Read More »Western Australia State Redistribution – Final Boundaries Released