tasmania

2024 Tasmanian Election Results – Franklin Updates

Update: Count over – evening of Friday 5 April

Elected and Projected Members

  • Re-elected 1 – Roslaie Woodruff (Greens)
  • Re-elected 2 – Dean Winter (Labor)
  • Elected 3 – Jacquie Petrusma (Liberal)
  • Elected 4 – Meg Brown (Labor)
  • Re-elected 5 – David O’Byrne (Independent)
  • Elected 6 – Eric Abetz (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 7 – Nic Street (Liberal)
  • Defeated – Dean Young (Liberal)

Other Updates: Bass ! Braddon ! Clark ! Lyons

Quota – 9,006

The first five elected members from Woodruff to O’Byrne reached quota and had a surplus distributed. At the end of the count there were three candidates left to fill the last two vacancies. The final totals were –

  • Eric Abetz (Liberal) – 8,634 votes – 0.96 quotas – declared elected
  • Nic Street (Liberal) – 8,462 votes – 0.94 quotas – declared elected
  • Jade Darko (Greens) – 6,900 votes – 0.77 quotas – not elected

Previous updates inside post.
Read More »2024 Tasmanian Election Results – Franklin Updates

2024 Tasmanian Election Results – Clark Updates

End of Counting Friday 5 April – Count completed and 7 members elected.

Elected and Projected Members

  • Re-elected 1 – Ella Haddad (Labor)
  • Re-elected 2 – Vica Bayley (Greens)
  • Elected 3 – Josh Willie (Labor)
  • Re-elected 4 – Kristie Johnston (Independent)
  • Elected 5 – Helen Burnet (Greens)
  • Re-elected 6 – Simon Behrakis (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 7 – Madeleine Ogilvie (Liberal)

Other Updates: Bass ! Braddon ! Franklin ! Lyons

Quota – 7,951 votes

The first five elected candidates passed the quota and had their surpluses distributed. That left three Liberal candidates –

  • Simon Behrakis – 7,574 votes – 0.95 quotas
  • Madeleine Ogilvie – 7,221 votes – 0.91 quotas
  • Marcus Vermey – 5,542 votes – 0.70 quotas

Behrakis and Ogilvie were declared elected without the need to distribute Vermey’s surplus.

Previous updates inside post.
Read More »2024 Tasmanian Election Results – Clark Updates

2024 Tasmanian Election Results – Braddon Updates

Final Update – End of counting Saturday 6 April

NOTE: Got to this post for updated results on the final day of counting, Saturday 6 April.

Elected and Projected Members

  • Re-elected 1 – Jeremy Rockliff (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 2 – Felix Ellis (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 3 – Anita Dow (Labor)
  • Re-elected 4 – Roger Jaensch (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 5 – Shane Broad (Labor)
  • Elected 6 – Miriam Beswick (Jacqui Lambie Network)
  • Elected 7 – Craig Garland (Independent)

Other Updates: Bass ! Clark ! Franklin ! Lyons

Table updates inside post.
Read More »2024 Tasmanian Election Results – Braddon Updates

2024 Tasmanian Election Results – Bass Updates

Final Update: End of the count Saturday 6 April

NOTE: Got to this post for updated results on the final day of counting, Saturday 6 April.

Elected and Projected Members

  • Re-elected 1 – Michael Ferguson (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 2 – Michelle O’Byrne (Labor)
  • Re-elected 3 – Janie Finlay (Labor)
  • Elected 4 – Rob Fairs (Liberal)
  • Elected 5 – Cecily Rosol (Greens)
  • Elected 6 – Rebekah Pentland (Jacqui Lambie Network)
  • Re-elected 7 – Simon Wood (Liberal)
  • Defeated – Lara Alexander (Independent)

Other Updates: Braddon ! Clark ! Franklin ! Lyons

Updates inside post.
Read More »2024 Tasmanian Election Results – Bass Updates

How a Hare-Clark Count Works

10am today is the close-off time for receipt of Tasmanian election postal votes. After these votes have been added to the count, the Tasmanian Electoral Commission will begin an amalgamation count, where ballot papers by candidate by polling place are amalgamated into bundles of ballot papers by candidate by electorate.

Once amalgamation is complete, the Electoral Commission will begin distributing preferences. Over the next few days I will have a dedicated post for each division where I will summarise the progress of the 2024 count.

To visualise how the distribution of preferences takes place, this post summarises the 2021 count progress for Bass. It explains why vote for parties is much more important under Hare-Clark than it is at Senate elections, where above-the-line party votes control the count. Both Senate and Hare-Clark counts are conducted as contests between candidates, but with Hare-Clark the split of party votes between candidates is much more than at Senate elections.

The chart below shows the party totals at Count 1, the final tally of first preference votes.

Read More »How a Hare-Clark Count Works

Tasmanian Election – Post-Election Night Updates

In this post I go through last night’s Tasmanian election result to try and get a better handle on the final outcome. The full picture won’t emerge until after the full distribution of preferences begins on the Tuesday after Easter.

A comment on the overall results. With 83.5% counted (final turn out will be about 90%), the Liberal Party are polling 36.8% of the first preference vote, down 11.9% on 2021. Labor polled 29.2% (+1.0%), Greens 13.4% (+1.1%), the Jacqui Lambie Network 6.7% (up from zero), single Independents 8.2% (+3.0%) and other parties 5.7% (+0.1%).

The seat numbers are –

  • Liberal: have won 13 seats and could win extra seats in Braddon and Franklin to reach 15, three seats short of a majority.
  • Labor: 10 seat with the outside chance of reaching 11th seat
  • Greens: four with a strong chance of five.
  • Jacqui Lambie Network: two and an outside chance of a third
  • Independents: two likely to be elected in Kristie Johnston and David O’Byrne.

It is interesting to compare the election result to 2014 when Will Hodgman led the Liberal Party to a landslide victory. Compared to 2014, Labor’s vote is up 1.9%, the Greens down 0.4%, the Liberal Party down 14.4% and support for others +12.9%.

Support for parties other than Labor, Liberal and Greens reached 20.6%, almost double the previous record in 2021.

Read More »Tasmanian Election – Post-Election Night Updates

Coverage of Tasmanian State Election and Dunstan By-election

This is one of my usual posts on election night designed to deal with the surge of visitors to the site driven by Google searches.

I will not be posting here this evening as I am involved in the ABC’s live coverage of the Tasmanian election. The coverage is being broadcast live across Tasmania from 6pm eastern daylight time on the ABC’s main channel, and across Australia on the ABC News channel. There will also be updates of the important Dunstan by-election in South Australia during the Tasmanian coverage.

The ABC will also be publishing live results at ABC-online. Access the Tasmanian live results site here. You can also find the Dunstan by-election results here.

Inside this post I have information on the early vote at both elections.Read More »Coverage of Tasmanian State Election and Dunstan By-election

Update on Tasmanian nominations, Dunkley and Dunstan by-elections

It’s been a hectic week preparing for Saturday night’s coverage of the Dunkley by-election, as well as dealing with the close of nominations for the Tasmanian election and the Dunstan by-election in South Australia.

Here’s a pointer to what I’ve been up to.

Dunkley By-election – 2 March

Knowing that Google recommendations send thousands of people to my blog site whenever there is an electoral event, i’m putting a link here to my Dunkley coverage.

I will not be blogging Dunkley results at this site. I will be on the ABC News channel and iView on Saturday night covering the results. There will also be live results on my ABC Dunkley by-election page. This will include polling place results, a map of polling place results, and I also have a Commentary page where I will be doing… Commentary. If the count takes several days to resolve, I will be doing my vote updates and analysis on the Dunkley by-election Commentary page.

I’ve also been keeping up to date with the pre-poll and postal voting rates for Dunkley which you can find in this blog post.Read More »Update on Tasmanian nominations, Dunkley and Dunstan by-elections

Update on looming elections, by-elections and redistributions

March will be a big month for elections. It’s keeping me very busy.

The biggest election in terms of voter numbers is Brisbane City Council, followed by the Tasmanian state election.

There is also a Federal by-election in Dunkley, two Queensland state by-elections and one South Australian state by-election.

Over the horizon beyond Easter are the Cook federal by-election, and now an announcement on the start to the Northern Territory federal redistribution.

I have ABC websites and blog posts being updated on all these electoral events. This post is an opportunity to highlight the on-going work I’m doing on each of these events, as well as pointing out some of the most recent updates.Read More »Update on looming elections, by-elections and redistributions