tasmania

2024 Tasmanian Election – Final Day of Counting

Today, Saturday 6 April, the Tasmanian Electoral Commission will finalise the distribution of preferences for last month’s Tasmanian election.

Counts were completed in Clark and Franklin yesterday with all seven vacancies filled and members formally declared elected. Three seats remain to be declared in each of Bass, Braddon and Lyons. You can check the overall election result summary at this link, or my posts following the distribution of preferences over the last week for each seat using the links below.

Updates by Division: Bass ! Braddon ! Clark ! Franklin ! Lyons

The final three seats in Bass and Lyons are clear and today’s counting will merely confirm projected winners. The same applies to two of the three vacancies in Braddon.

This post will concentrate on the last seat in Braddon, a tight contest between fourth Liberal candidate Giovanna Simpson and Independent Craig Garland. It is predicted that Garland will catch and pass Simpson on preferences to win the final seat.

This will leave the Liberal Party with just 14 seats in the 35 seat House of Assembly. With Labor on 10 seats having ruled out taking office, the Rockliff government will need to negotiate with an 11 member crossbench, five Greens, three Independents and three first time members representing the Jacquie Lambie Network. There may be some votes where the Labor opposition votes with the government and is opposed by the crossbench.

I will take note other members declared elected today, but for the most part this post will concentrate on the race for the final seat in Braddon.

Braddon Updates

To follow the Braddon count I will use the table below. For the six remaining candidates, at each count the table will show votes held and the quotas those votes represent. As each new count is added, a total for change since the last count will also be shown.

The technically minded might want to now what the “Exh/LBF” column is. It is a total of ballot papers that have run out of further preferences up to and including the count shown. It also includes a small number of ‘loss-by-fraction” votes that are fractional votes created by the distribution of preferences for surplus to quota votes. As I said, for the technically minded.

I’ll have more to say once we start seeing new counts reported.

Final 2022 Braddon Counts – Saturday 6 April (Quota 8,875)
Count Detail Broad
(ALP)
Simpson
(LIB)
Garland
(IND)
Beswick
(JLN)
Briggs
(GRN)
Redgrave
(JLN)
Exh/LBF
72 Votes 8,808 5,870 5,479 5,011 4,901 4,781 643
Quota 0.992 0.661 0.617 0.565 0.552 0.539 0.072
77 Change +276 +147 +259 +3,788 +115 -4,781 +196
Votes 9,084 6,017 5,738 8,799 5,016 .. 839
Quota 1.024 0.678 0.647 0.991 0.565 .. 0.095
78 Change -209 +15 +27 +57 +19 .. +91
Votes 8,875 6,032 5,765 8,856 5,035 .. 930
Quota 1.000 0.680 0.650 0.998 0.567 .. 0.105
79 Change .. +281 +1,491 +1,125 -4,950 .. +2,053
Votes .. 6,313 7,256 9,981 85 .. 2,983
Quota .. 0.711 0.818 1.125 0.010 .. 0.336
84 Change .. +19 +24 +0 -85 +0 +42
Votes .. 6,332 7,280 9,981 0 .. 3,025
Quota .. 0.713 0.820 1.125 .. .. 0.341
85 Change .. +149 +581 -1,106 .. .. +376
Votes .. 6,481 7,861 8,875 .. .. 3,401
Quota .. 0.730 0.886 1.000 .. .. 0.383

Simpson’s lead over Garland
At count 72 – 391 votes
At count 77 – 279 votes
At count 78 – 267 votes
At count 79 – Garland ahead by 943 votes and will be elected
At count 84 – Garland ahead by 1,380 votes and fills the seventh seat.
Read More »2024 Tasmanian Election – Final Day of Counting

2024 Tasmania Election Results – Lyons Updates

Final Update: Count completion Saturday 6 April

Elected and Projected Members

  • Re-elected 1 – Rebecca White (Labor)
  • Re-elected 2 – Guy Barnett (Liberal)
  • Elected 3 – Jane Howlett (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 4 – Jen Butler (Labor)
  • Re-elected 5 – Mark Shelton (Liberal)
  • Elected 6 – Andrew Jenner (Jacqui Lambie Network) – to be confirmed
  • Elected 7 – Tabatha Badger (Greens) – to be confirmed
  • Defeated – John Tucker (Independent)

Other Updates: Bass ! Braddon ! Clark ! Franklin

Table updates inside post.
Read More »2024 Tasmania Election Results – Lyons Updates

2024 Tasmanian Election Results – Franklin Updates

Update: Count over – evening of Friday 5 April

Elected and Projected Members

  • Re-elected 1 – Roslaie Woodruff (Greens)
  • Re-elected 2 – Dean Winter (Labor)
  • Elected 3 – Jacquie Petrusma (Liberal)
  • Elected 4 – Meg Brown (Labor)
  • Re-elected 5 – David O’Byrne (Independent)
  • Elected 6 – Eric Abetz (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 7 – Nic Street (Liberal)
  • Defeated – Dean Young (Liberal)

Other Updates: Bass ! Braddon ! Clark ! Lyons

Quota – 9,006

The first five elected members from Woodruff to O’Byrne reached quota and had a surplus distributed. At the end of the count there were three candidates left to fill the last two vacancies. The final totals were –

  • Eric Abetz (Liberal) – 8,634 votes – 0.96 quotas – declared elected
  • Nic Street (Liberal) – 8,462 votes – 0.94 quotas – declared elected
  • Jade Darko (Greens) – 6,900 votes – 0.77 quotas – not elected

Previous updates inside post.
Read More »2024 Tasmanian Election Results – Franklin Updates

2024 Tasmanian Election Results – Clark Updates

End of Counting Friday 5 April – Count completed and 7 members elected.

Elected and Projected Members

  • Re-elected 1 – Ella Haddad (Labor)
  • Re-elected 2 – Vica Bayley (Greens)
  • Elected 3 – Josh Willie (Labor)
  • Re-elected 4 – Kristie Johnston (Independent)
  • Elected 5 – Helen Burnet (Greens)
  • Re-elected 6 – Simon Behrakis (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 7 – Madeleine Ogilvie (Liberal)

Other Updates: Bass ! Braddon ! Franklin ! Lyons

Quota – 7,951 votes

The first five elected candidates passed the quota and had their surpluses distributed. That left three Liberal candidates –

  • Simon Behrakis – 7,574 votes – 0.95 quotas
  • Madeleine Ogilvie – 7,221 votes – 0.91 quotas
  • Marcus Vermey – 5,542 votes – 0.70 quotas

Behrakis and Ogilvie were declared elected without the need to distribute Vermey’s surplus.

Previous updates inside post.
Read More »2024 Tasmanian Election Results – Clark Updates

2024 Tasmanian Election Results – Braddon Updates

Final Update – End of counting Saturday 6 April

NOTE: Got to this post for updated results on the final day of counting, Saturday 6 April.

Elected and Projected Members

  • Re-elected 1 – Jeremy Rockliff (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 2 – Felix Ellis (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 3 – Anita Dow (Labor)
  • Re-elected 4 – Roger Jaensch (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 5 – Shane Broad (Labor)
  • Elected 6 – Miriam Beswick (Jacqui Lambie Network)
  • Elected 7 – Craig Garland (Independent)

Other Updates: Bass ! Clark ! Franklin ! Lyons

Table updates inside post.
Read More »2024 Tasmanian Election Results – Braddon Updates

2024 Tasmanian Election Results – Bass Updates

Final Update: End of the count Saturday 6 April

NOTE: Got to this post for updated results on the final day of counting, Saturday 6 April.

Elected and Projected Members

  • Re-elected 1 – Michael Ferguson (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 2 – Michelle O’Byrne (Labor)
  • Re-elected 3 – Janie Finlay (Labor)
  • Elected 4 – Rob Fairs (Liberal)
  • Elected 5 – Cecily Rosol (Greens)
  • Elected 6 – Rebekah Pentland (Jacqui Lambie Network)
  • Re-elected 7 – Simon Wood (Liberal)
  • Defeated – Lara Alexander (Independent)

Other Updates: Braddon ! Clark ! Franklin ! Lyons

Updates inside post.
Read More »2024 Tasmanian Election Results – Bass Updates

How a Hare-Clark Count Works

10am today is the close-off time for receipt of Tasmanian election postal votes. After these votes have been added to the count, the Tasmanian Electoral Commission will begin an amalgamation count, where ballot papers by candidate by polling place are amalgamated into bundles of ballot papers by candidate by electorate.

Once amalgamation is complete, the Electoral Commission will begin distributing preferences. Over the next few days I will have a dedicated post for each division where I will summarise the progress of the 2024 count.

To visualise how the distribution of preferences takes place, this post summarises the 2021 count progress for Bass. It explains why vote for parties is much more important under Hare-Clark than it is at Senate elections, where above-the-line party votes control the count. Both Senate and Hare-Clark counts are conducted as contests between candidates, but with Hare-Clark the split of party votes between candidates is much more than at Senate elections.

The chart below shows the party totals at Count 1, the final tally of first preference votes.

Read More »How a Hare-Clark Count Works

Tasmanian Election – Post-Election Night Updates

In this post I go through last night’s Tasmanian election result to try and get a better handle on the final outcome. The full picture won’t emerge until after the full distribution of preferences begins on the Tuesday after Easter.

A comment on the overall results. With 83.5% counted (final turn out will be about 90%), the Liberal Party are polling 36.8% of the first preference vote, down 11.9% on 2021. Labor polled 29.2% (+1.0%), Greens 13.4% (+1.1%), the Jacqui Lambie Network 6.7% (up from zero), single Independents 8.2% (+3.0%) and other parties 5.7% (+0.1%).

The seat numbers are –

  • Liberal: have won 13 seats and could win extra seats in Braddon and Franklin to reach 15, three seats short of a majority.
  • Labor: 10 seat with the outside chance of reaching 11th seat
  • Greens: four with a strong chance of five.
  • Jacqui Lambie Network: two and an outside chance of a third
  • Independents: two likely to be elected in Kristie Johnston and David O’Byrne.

It is interesting to compare the election result to 2014 when Will Hodgman led the Liberal Party to a landslide victory. Compared to 2014, Labor’s vote is up 1.9%, the Greens down 0.4%, the Liberal Party down 14.4% and support for others +12.9%.

Support for parties other than Labor, Liberal and Greens reached 20.6%, almost double the previous record in 2021.

Read More »Tasmanian Election – Post-Election Night Updates

Coverage of Tasmanian State Election and Dunstan By-election

This is one of my usual posts on election night designed to deal with the surge of visitors to the site driven by Google searches.

I will not be posting here this evening as I am involved in the ABC’s live coverage of the Tasmanian election. The coverage is being broadcast live across Tasmania from 6pm eastern daylight time on the ABC’s main channel, and across Australia on the ABC News channel. There will also be updates of the important Dunstan by-election in South Australia during the Tasmanian coverage.

The ABC will also be publishing live results at ABC-online. Access the Tasmanian live results site here. You can also find the Dunstan by-election results here.

Inside this post I have information on the early vote at both elections.Read More »Coverage of Tasmanian State Election and Dunstan By-election