QLD2024 – Preference Flows and Vote by Type compared to 2020
Rather than write a daily post on vote updates, I’ve been putting my effort into ensuring results are as accurate as possible on the ABC Queensland Election Results site.
While the ECQ conducted indicative preference counts for all votes counted on the weekend, it has ceased undertaking further preference counts and removed the weekend’s totals from its website.
Before the data was removed, I captured all the available preference flow data and used it to re-build the preference formulas in the ABC’s election computer. The ABC results site is now applying the weekend’s preference flow data to the latest first preference totals being released by the ECQ.
In this post I will provide some analysis of these flows compared to 2020, and also look at the dramatic increase in swing that occurred on election night as pre-poll centre counts began to arrive.
As at the close of counting on Monday, the swing against Labor on polling day votes was 4.9%, but 8.6% for Pre-polls and 10.3% on the initial count of postal votes. That explains why the swing rose through the evening.
There’s more on vote by type and preference flows inside the post.
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