Preference Flows at the Secret Harbour By-Election
Update after full distribution of preferences published: The Liberal Party polled 4,777 votes. During the distribution of preferences, its tally rose to 6,018 votes. When excluded, 3,549 votes transferred to One Nation. That means it is mathematically impossible for Liberal preferences to flow to One Nation at a rate higher than 74.3%. (3549/4777).
My original estimate based on flow data counted out for the Early Voting Centre was that 70.2% of Liberal preferences flowed to One Nation. While I cannot update that number from the distribution of preferences, the lower Liberal vote on polling day suggests to me the % flow of Liberal preferences to One Nation is under 70%.
A quick break from my holiday to deal with some nonsense claims made about preference flows at the Secret Harbour by-election.
In this YouTube video, Topher Field uses some weird maths to come to the conclusion that the Secret Harbour by-election saw a record flow of Liberal and right-wing candidate preference flows to One Nation.
It is a bit hard to be clear what he is saying, but I think he comes to the conclusion that once you exclude left-wing parties from the calculations, 88% of preferences from right parties, including the Liberal Party, flowed to One Nation.
This claim is rubbish and preference flow data released by the WA Electoral Commission shows that claim to be wrong.
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