2024 Tasmanian Election – Final Day of Counting

Today, Saturday 6 April, the Tasmanian Electoral Commission will finalise the distribution of preferences for last month’s Tasmanian election.

Counts were completed in Clark and Franklin yesterday with all seven vacancies filled and members formally declared elected. Three seats remain to be declared in each of Bass, Braddon and Lyons. You can check the overall election result summary at this link, or my posts following the distribution of preferences over the last week for each seat using the links below.

Updates by Division: Bass ! Braddon ! Clark ! Franklin ! Lyons

The final three seats in Bass and Lyons are clear and today’s counting will merely confirm projected winners. The same applies to two of the three vacancies in Braddon.

This post will concentrate on the last seat in Braddon, a tight contest between fourth Liberal candidate Giovanna Simpson and Independent Craig Garland. It is predicted that Garland will catch and pass Simpson on preferences to win the final seat.

This will leave the Liberal Party with just 14 seats in the 35 seat House of Assembly. With Labor on 10 seats having ruled out taking office, the Rockliff government will need to negotiate with an 11 member crossbench, five Greens, three Independents and three first time members representing the Jacquie Lambie Network. There may be some votes where the Labor opposition votes with the government and is opposed by the crossbench.

I will take note other members declared elected today, but for the most part this post will concentrate on the race for the final seat in Braddon.

Braddon Updates

To follow the Braddon count I will use the table below. For the six remaining candidates, at each count the table will show votes held and the quotas those votes represent. As each new count is added, a total for change since the last count will also be shown.

The technically minded might want to now what the “Exh/LBF” column is. It is a total of ballot papers that have run out of further preferences up to and including the count shown. It also includes a small number of ‘loss-by-fraction” votes that are fractional votes created by the distribution of preferences for surplus to quota votes. As I said, for the technically minded.

I’ll have more to say once we start seeing new counts reported.

Final 2022 Braddon Counts – Saturday 6 April (Quota 8,875)
Count Detail Broad
72 Votes 8,808 5,870 5,479 5,011 4,901 4,781 643
Quota 0.992 0.661 0.617 0.565 0.552 0.539 0.072
77 Change +276 +147 +259 +3,788 +115 -4,781 +196
Votes 9,084 6,017 5,738 8,799 5,016 .. 839
Quota 1.024 0.678 0.647 0.991 0.565 .. 0.095
78 Change -209 +15 +27 +57 +19 .. +91
Votes 8,875 6,032 5,765 8,856 5,035 .. 930
Quota 1.000 0.680 0.650 0.998 0.567 .. 0.105
79 Change .. +281 +1,491 +1,125 -4,950 .. +2,053
Votes .. 6,313 7,256 9,981 85 .. 2,983
Quota .. 0.711 0.818 1.125 0.010 .. 0.336
84 Change .. +19 +24 +0 -85 +0 +42
Votes .. 6,332 7,280 9,981 0 .. 3,025
Quota .. 0.713 0.820 1.125 .. .. 0.341
85 Change .. +149 +581 -1,106 .. .. +376
Votes .. 6,481 7,861 8,875 .. .. 3,401
Quota .. 0.730 0.886 1.000 .. .. 0.383

Simpson’s lead over Garland
At count 72 – 391 votes
At count 77 – 279 votes
At count 78 – 267 votes
At count 79 – Garland ahead by 943 votes and will be elected
At count 84 – Garland ahead by 1,380 votes and fills the seventh seat.
Read More »2024 Tasmanian Election – Final Day of Counting

2022 Post-Federal Election Pendulum

With 16 members elected to the crossbench in the new House of Representatives, drawing up a new electoral pendulum based on the 2022 Federal election result strains the traditionally used two-sided format.

However, I’ve gone with the traditional format with the non-major party seats separated bottom right on the opposition side of the pendulum. However, the expanded size of the crossbench means this group of seats deserves more attention than its bottom of the table position suggests.

Inside this post I provide a post-election pendulum for the House of Representatives, along with some general comments on the overall result.Read More »2022 Post-Federal Election Pendulum

Final Two-Party Preferred result for 2021 Western Australian Election

Lower house results are now final for the 2021 Western Australian election, including the full distribution of preferences for all seats. The results reveal the extra-ordinary scale of Labor’s victory.

(The distribution of preferences for Legislative Council regions will take place later this week. I’ve provided commentary pending the release of the LC preference distributions at the page hosting my ABC Legislative Council calculators.)

Labor has won 53 of the 59 seats in the Legislative Assembly, up 13 on the 40 seats it held before the election. The Liberal Party’s representation in the lower house has collapsed from 13 seats to just two. In Parliament the opposition will now be led by National Party Leader Mia Davies, her party having emerged from the carnage with four seats, down two from the six it held before the election.

Labor has recorded 69.7% of the state-wide two-party preferred vote, a swing in it’s favour of 14.1%. That’s on top of the 12.8% swing that put Labor into office in 2017.

Of the 59 seats, 58 finished as two-party contests with the Greens finishing second in Fremantle. (Note: 31 March – That there have been some minor changes to results in this post due to correction by the WAEC. The most significant change concerned a correction to the count in Southern River which cut the Labor two-party preferred vote from 84.9% to a still substantial 83.1%.) Read More »Final Two-Party Preferred result for 2021 Western Australian Election