The tables in this post will be updated to show the results in each polling place, a total for early votes, and a total for each declaration vote type. There are three Early Voting Centres but the VEC’s computer system can only publish an aggregate total for early vote centres. Results appear as centres report.
Links: Result summary | Commentary | Swing Tables | Polling Place Results
The tables in this post summarise the results by count centre.
Links: Result summary | Commentary | Swing Tables | Polling Place Results
Read More »2026 – Nepean By-election – Swing Tables
This post will contain commentary on the results of the 2026 Nepean by-election. Use the links below to navigate between the four results pages that I will be updating.
Links: Result summary | Commentary | Swing Tables | Polling Place Results
This post contains an overall summary of the results of the 2026 Nepean by-election. The page will be regularly updated on election night. It will also be updated in the post-election period as election night votes are check counted and as postal and other declaration votes are included in the count.
Links: Result summary | Commentary | Swing Tables | Polling Place Results
Read More »2026 – Nepean By-election – Results
RESULTS: I will be running a results service on election night. Here are the links to the four pages.
Links: Result Summary | Commentary | Swing Tables | Polling Place Results
The ancient Etruscans engaged in a ritual we know today as ‘haruspicy’ where animals were sacrificed and their entrails examined to interpret the will of the gods and divine the future.
A modern political version of haruspicy will unfold this weekend over the results of the by-election in the Victorian state seat of Nepean. The entrails of the result will be examined and dissected as everyone involved tries to decide what the result portends for the Victorian state election in November.
Though with Labor choosing not to contest what is a natural Liberal seat, the Nepean result can’t offer a full guide to how the parties are faring.
The by-election takes place six weeks after Labor’s victory at the South Australian state election, and one week ahead of a similar party contest in the by-election for the Federal seat of Farrer.
There are differences and similarities between Nepean and the other contests.
The difference with South Australia is clear. A first-term SA Labor government led by the hugely popular Peter Malinauskas was expected to and duly won a landslide victory.
That contrasts with the challenge facing an unpopular third-term Victorian Labor government led by Premier Jacinta Allan. Not contesting Nepean avoids any scrutiny on Labor’s electoral performance.
Similarities are with the other side of politics. Like its SA Liberal brethren, the Victorian Liberal Party has achieved victory at only one state election this century. Both branches have suffered from ideological and personal factionalism in recent years and undergone three Leadership changes since the last election. And in late 2025 both state branches moved to make thirty-something females their Leader, Ashton Hurn in South Australia and Jess Wilson in Victoria.
South Australia also saw a surge in support for One Nation at the expense of the Liberal Party. Victorian and federal opinion polls show the same trend of surging support for One Nation. The party is expected to outpoll both the Liberals and Nationals in Farrer.
And like Farrer, Nepean has no Labor candidate, a high profile local Independent, and One Nation’s campaign is boosted by rising support in opinion polls.
At last May’s Federal election, the Liberal Party faced a closer than expected race against Independent Ben Smith in the local federal seat of Flinders. Nepean covers the western end of Flinders, and based on the Federal result, Smith could have won a majority after preferences in Nepean. At the by-election, One Nation would be expected to poll more strongly than the 5.2% it attracted last May.
How will Independent Tracee Hutchison poll and will she make the final two after preferences? How much will Hutchison or the Greens benefit from the absence of a Labor candidate?
Will one or both of Liberal Anthony Marsh and One Nation’s Darren Hercus make the final two?
With Hercus and Marsh recommending preferences for each other, what proportion of voters will follow the preference recommendations?Read More »2026 Nepean by-election (Victoria)