FED25 – A Plethora of Estimated Margins and Problems with the AEC Version
In a pre-Christmas treat for election nerds, the Australian Electoral Commission is about to publish its estimated seat margins for next year’s Federal election.
The 2025 Federal election will be fought on new electoral boundaries following redistributions in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. There has also been a redistribution in the Northern Territory though those boundaries are yet to be formally gazetted into place.
Earlier this month I published my estimates of post-redistribution margins. These are the margins I recommend the ABC should use at the 2025 election. (The post includes links to an alphabetic list of electorates and all new margins plus a new pendulum.
Having been asked my opinion of the AEC’s estimated new margins, I agree with the AEC in 137 of the 150 seats, am in close agreement on another four, but disagree on nine seats to varying degrees.
These nine seats are contests that did not finish as traditional two-party preferred races between Labor and the Coalition in 2022, and where there have been significant boundary changes.
Inside this post I have published a table that includes my estimated margins for these nine seats, as well as the AEC’s, and two other estimates published by prominent election observers, Ben Raue of the Tallyroom website, and William Bowe of the Pollbludger website.
(The AEC’s estimates are now available. You can find them at this link.)
In some entries in the table, the AEC’s estimates differ from the values that Ben, William and I calculated independently. In other entries the different methodologies adopted mean there are a range of possible estimated margins.
In this post I’ll run through detail on where there is disagreement.
But I need to make clear I am in no way suggesting there is a problem with how the AEC will conduct the 2025 election.Read More »FED25 – A Plethora of Estimated Margins and Problems with the AEC Version