kiama

Why does NSW have a 12-month Delay on Registered Parties being granted the Benefits of Registration?

Before nominations for the Kiama by-election (background here) closed on Thursday, Family First issued a press release stating the party had withdrawn from the contest.

Family First’s registered officer, Lyle Shelton, stated that “Family First has been BANNED from running in the Kiama by-election – not by the voters, but by petty rules designed by the big parties to protect themselves.”

“Our candidate Kyle Napoleoni was ready to give locals a family-friendly choice, but NSW law says new parties must sit on the sidelines for 12 months after registration.”

Shelton states the position more correctly later in the press release writing “The NSW Electoral Commission this week advised the party it could not accept candidate Kyle Napoleoni’s nomination.”

“Banned” is not what happened. Rather, the NSWEC refused the nomination because it was lodged by the party’s registered officer. Family First was registered to contest NSW elections in April this year. In every other Australian jurisdiction the nomination would have been accepted and the party’s name and logo printed on the ballot paper. But not in NSW where a registered party does not have these rights until 12 months after being registered.

Kyle Napoleoni could still have nominated, but not as the candidate of a registered party. He would have needed nomination with signatures by 25 electors on the Kiama electoral roll. I presume Family First did not have time to arrange signatures after the central nomination was rejected. But even with nominators, Napoleoni would have been denied a party name and logo on the ballot paper.

So why does NSW have this strange rule? It all goes back to the 1999 NSW Legislative Council election and its infamous “tablecloth” ballot paper.

And rather than being a rule put in place to benefit only the big parties, its implementation was backed by the minor parties in parliament at the time.

Let me explain how we got here.Read More »Why does NSW have a 12-month Delay on Registered Parties being granted the Benefits of Registration?

NSW State District of Kiama set for By-election

Result Declared – Final Figures

Kiama By-election Result
Candidate Party Votes Pct Change
Katelin McInerney ALP 18,622 37.3 +2.9
Serena Copley LIB 13,226 26.5 +14.5
Kate Dezarnaulds IND 5,225 10.5 +10.5
Tonia Gray GRN 4,074 8.2 -3.0
Don Fuggle LCA 2,550 5.1 +5.1
Felix Nelson SFF 2,543 5.1 +5.1
Joshua Beer LBT 895 1.8 +1.8
Lisa Cotton IND 676 1.4 +1.4
Ellie Robertson AJP 622 1.2 +1.2
Andrew Thaler IND 544 1.1 +1.1
Roger Woodward IND 429 0.9 +0.9
Ken Davis SAP 420 0.8 -2.8
Cyrille Jeufo Keuheu IND 69 0.1 +0.1
…. (Gareth Ward) IND .. 0.0 -38.8
Formal 49,895
Informal 1,995 3.8 +0.7
Total / % Counted 51,890 83.0
Roll 62,486
Two-Candidate Preferred
Katelin McInerney ALP 23,313 60.2 +10.9
Serena Copley LIB 15,421 39.8 +39.8
…. (Gareth Ward) IND .. 0.0 -50.8
Exhausted 11,161 22.4 +9.0
Two-Party Preferred
Katelin McInerney ALP 23,313 60.2 -9.5
Serena Copley LIB 15,421 39.8 +9.5
Exhausted 11,161 22.4 -10.4

Analysing the by-election swing is complicated by Gareth Ward’s victory as an Independent in 2023. Comparing Labor’s result to the contest against Ward in 2023 there is a 10.9% swing to Labor. By the alternative two-party preferred count from 2023, there is a 9.6% swing against Labor. But in 2023 there was a massive exhaustion rate caused by 69.5% of Ward voters having no preferences which inflated Labor’s two-party preferred result. As a result the two-party preferred swing is distorted which makes the two-candidate preferred swing a more reliable measure of the by-election swing.

Pre-election comment: My view since the start of the campaign is that Labor will win easily, as they would have won easily in 2023 had Gareth Ward not been on the ballot paper. Labor may even win a majority of the first preference vote and will certainly have the highest first preference vote. Based on the published how-to-vote preference recommendations, it is difficult to see how any other candidate can close Labor’s lead. Two weeks of bad headlines for the Federal Liberal Party can only have helped Labor’s cause.

Update: the campaign will be short with the by-election announced for Saturday 13 September. The writ will be issued on 22 August which in NSW electoral law is also the date when the electoral rolls closes. Nominations will close at noon on Thursday 28 August with early voting to begin on Saturday 6 September.

Draw for Ballot Positions 29 August – 13 candidates at the close of nominations. Labor drew the last position but will still be favoured to win. Details of the ballot paper inside post.

How-to-vote preference recommendations – details have been added

The resignation of former Independent MP Gareth Ward has set the stage for a by-election in his south coast seat of Kiama.

Ward has first elected as Liberal member for Kiama in 2011 at the Coalition’s landslide defeat of the Keneally Labor government. As outlined in this post, Kiama at the time was a traditional Labor seat, having been held by the party since its creation in 1981. He was re-elected in 2015 and again in 2019 with no swing against him. He resigned from the Liberal Party in 2020 after being charged with the sexual offences for which he was eventually convicted.

Ward was re-elected as an Independent in 2023 despite the charges hanging over his head. Two weeks ago he was convicted on the charges and placed in custody last week. Earlier this week he gained an injunction against the NSW Legislative Assembly moving a motion to expel him. His case was dismissed yesterday and the Assembly was due to debate an expulsion motion this morning. Before the debate could take place, Ward sent a resignation letter to the Speaker of the Assembly.

Read on for more information on the Kiama electorate.
Read More »NSW State District of Kiama set for By-election