ipswich west

Live Coverage of Brisbane City Council, Inala and Ipswich West By-elections

ABC Results site is now live here.

Updated Tuesday 19 March 5pm AEDT

The tables below summarises the result. There are updates on latest figures being logged inside the post.

Results Summary

Inala by-election Labor retain
Ipswich West by-election LNP GAIN
Brisbane Lord Mayor Adrian Schrinner re-elected
Brisbane Wards LNP retain majority

Brisbane Council – Wards Won by Party

LNP ALP GRN IND Doubt
Wards won 17 5 2 1 1
Leading 1 .. .. .. ..

Brisbane Wards – Councillors Elected

Ward Margin and Incumbent Result
Bracken Ridge LNP – Sandy Landers Re-elected
Calamvale LNP – Angela Owen Labor GAIN
Central LNP – Vicki Howard Re-elected
Chandler LNP – Ryan Murphy Re-elected
Coorparoo LNP – Fiona Cunningham Re-elected
Deagon ALP – Jared Cassidy Re-elected
Doboy LNP – Lisa Atwood Re-elected
Enoggera LNP – Andrew Wines Re-elected
Forest Lake ALP – Charles Strunk Re-elected
Hamilton LNP – Julia Dixon Re-elected
Holland Park LNP – Krista Adams Re-elected
Jamboree LNP – Sarah Hutton Re-elected
Macgregor LNP – Steven Huang Re-elected
Marchant LNP – Danita Parry Re-elected
McDowall LNP – Tracy Davis Re-elected
Moorooka ALP – Steve Griffiths Re-elected
Morningside ALP – Lucy Collier Re-elected
Northgate LNP – Adam Allan LNP ahead
Paddington LNP – Clare Jenkinson Greens GAIN
Pullenvale LNP – Greg Adermann Re-elected
Runcorn LNP – Kim Marx Re-elected
Tennyson IND – Nicole Jonhston Re-elected
The Gabba GRN – Trina Massey Re-elected
The Gap LNP – Steve Toomey Re-elected
Walter Taylor LNP – Penny Wolff Re-elected
Wynnum-Manly ALP – Sara Whitmee LNP gain


Read More »Live Coverage of Brisbane City Council, Inala and Ipswich West By-elections

Queensland By-elections since 1992

As well as voting in the Queensland local government elections this weekend, voters in the Labor-held seats of Inala and Ipswich West will vote at state by-elections to elect new MPs.

“Informed sources” are making predictions of big swings. There are hints from Labor at possible seat losses, from the LNP about falling short of the required swing. The sort of expectations management now common ahead of important by-elections.

The results of both by-elections, and the Brisbane City Council election, will be watched closely. On Saturday night you can follow my coverage of the elections at the ABC’s Brisbane City Council and By-elections live results site. I’ll also be joining Steve Austin on ABC Brisbane local radio analysing the results.

The election night dissections will be followed by the reports of the auguries on Sunday. What will they be able to divine about the fate of the Labor government and new Premier Steven Miles at the state election set for October?

The Inala by-election (preview here) is to select a replacement for former Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk. Inala has been Labor’s safest seat for three decades and its margin of 28.2% looks insurmountable.

At greater risk further along the Warrego Highway is Ipswich West (preview here). Former member Jim Madden has been followed by controversy before resigning and the seat’s margin of 14.3% is half that of Inala. It is a seat that both the LNP and One Nation have held in the past.

Looking back at Queensland by-elections since 1992, they provide a mixed bag of results to measure against this weekend’s results. There have been 21 by-elections since 1992, eight resulting in the incumbent party being defeated. Twelve of these by-elections were two-party preferred contests like this weekend’s pair, and six saw incumbents defeated.

In summary –

  • Of the 12 two-party preferred by-elections, the average swing against the government of the day was 6.5%.
  • The seven by-elections while Labor was in government saw an average swing of 5.0% against Labor government.
  • The five by-elections while the LNP was in government produced an average swing of 8.5% against the LNP government.
  • Of the seven by-elections in government held seats, the average swing against the government was 10.1% Five were in Labor seats in Labor governments and an average of 6.9%, the two LNP seats while the LNP governed averaging 18.2%.
  • The Beattie Labor government lost three seats after big swings at by-elections between 2005 and 2006. Labor lost Chatsworth in 2005 after a 13.9% swing, Redcliffe the same day with an 8.4% swing, and Gaven in April 2006 after an 8.3% swing. Despite the losses, Labor re-gained all three seats at the 2006 election.
  • The Newman LNP government lost two seats to huge swings at by-elections in 2014, losing Redcliffe to a 17.2% swing, and Stafford shortly after to an even bigger 19.1% swing. Both results accurately predicted the result of the next state election in January 2015.

Read More »Queensland By-elections since 1992

Queensland State By-elections – Inala and Ipswich West

As well as the Brisbane City Council elections on 16 March, the Queensland Labor Party faces two state by-elections the same day.

The Inala by-election has been brought on by the resignation of former Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk. Inala is Labor’s safest seat with a massive margin of 28.2% and the party’s primary vote in 2020 was 67%. Inala is so safe that it was one of the seven seats Labor retained at the party’s 2012 landslide defeat. You can read my by-election profile for Inala here.

The Ipswich West by-election has been caused by the resignation of backbencher Jim Madden. The Labor margin is 14.3% and the first preference vote in 2020 50.1%. It was one of the seats lost to the LNP for a single term in 2012 and was also lost to One Nation for a single term in 1998. One Nation finished second in Ipswich West as recently as 2017. You can read my by-election profile for Ipswich West here..

I will be covering both by-elections as part of my Brisbane City Council result coverage on 16 March. The reason for this separate post is to highlight material I’ve been adding to both by-election pages on preferences.Read More »Queensland State By-elections – Inala and Ipswich West