Hare-Clark

TAS 2025 – Lyons – Tracking the Distribution of Preferences

Result links – Bass | Braddon | Clark | Franklin | Lyons

Final Figures

Table of Elected and Defeated Candidates

  • Re-elected 1 – Guy Barnett (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 2 – Jane Howlett (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 3 – Tabatha Badger (Greens)
  • Re-elected 4 – Jen Butler (Labor)
  • Elected 5 – Brian Mitchell (Labor)
  • Re-elected 6 – Mark Shelton (Liberal)
  • Elected 7 – Carlo Di Falco (SFF)
  • Defeated – Casey Farrell (Labor)
  • Defeated – Andrew Jenner (Nationals, formerly Jacqui Lambie Network)

Final figures published

Both Labor candidates reached quota. After the distribution of Labor surplus votes, many of which exhausted, only three candidates remained for two vacancies and Mark Shelton (Liberal) and Carlo Di Falco (SFF) were declared elected to the final two seats, Liberal Stephanie Cameron missing out on election.

Read More »TAS 2025 – Lyons – Tracking the Distribution of Preferences

TAS2025 – Franklin – Tracking the Distribution of Preferences

Result links – Bass | Braddon | Clark | Franklin | Lyons

Count Complete

Table of Elected and Defeated Candidates

  • Elected 1 – Peter George (Independent)
  • Re-elected 2 – Eric Abetz (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 3 – Rosalie Woodruff (Greens)
  • Re-elected 4 – David O’Byrne (Independent)
  • Re-elected 5 – Dean Winter (Labor)
  • Re-elected 6 – Jacquie Petrusma (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 7 – Meg Brown (Labor)
  • Defeated – Nick Street (Liberal)

Franklin Final Figures

Read More »TAS2025 – Franklin – Tracking the Distribution of Preferences

TAS2025 – Clark – Tracking the Distribution of Preferences

Result links – Bass | Braddon | Clark | Franklin | Lyons

FINAL FIGURES

Table of Elected and Defeated Candidates

  • Re-elected 1 – Kristie Johnston (Independent)
  • Re-elected 2 – Vica Bayley (Greens)
  • Re-elected 3 – Ella Haddad (Labor)
  • Re-elected 4 – Josh Willie (Labor)
  • Re-elected 5 – Helen Burnet (Greens)
  • Elected 6 – Marcus Vermey (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 7 – Madeleine Ogilvie (Liberal)
  • Defeated – Simon Behrakis (Liberal)

Final Figures

At the end of the count Madeleine Ogilvie was declared the winner of the seventh seat defeated party colleague Simon Behrakis 7,082 votes (0.885 quotas) to 6,902 (0.862 quotas). Below is the count after all preferences had been distributed.

Read More »TAS2025 – Clark – Tracking the Distribution of Preferences

TAS2025 – Braddon – Tracking the Distribution of Preferences

Result links – Bass | Braddon | Clark | Franklin | Lyons

Count Finalised Friday 1 August

Table of Elected and Defeated Candidates

  • Re-elected 1 – Jeremy Rockliff (Liberal)
  • Elected 2 – Gavin Pearce (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 3 – Craig Garland (Independent)
  • Re-elected 4 – Felix Ellis (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 5 – Anita Dow (Labor)
  • Re-elected 6 – Roger Jaensch (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 7 – Shane Broad (Labor)
  • Defeated – Miriam Beswick (National, former Jacqui Lambie Network)

Count complete, final figures

The final exclusion was SFF candidate Adrian Pickin. This put both Liberal Roger Jaensch and Labor’s Shane Bond over quota in that order. A tiny number of reduced transfer value votes remained with Pickin at the end of the count. The final Greens candidate was not excluded. Below is a pie chart of the final count with seven members elected.


Read More »TAS2025 – Braddon – Tracking the Distribution of Preferences

TAS2025 – Bass – Tracking the Distribution of Preferences

Result links – Bass | Braddon | Clark | Franklin | Lyons

Count now Final

BASS – Table of Elected and Defeated Candidates

  • Elected 1 – Bridget Archer (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 2 – Janie Finlay (Labor)
  • Re-elected 3 – Michael Ferguson (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 4 – Cecily Rosol (Greens)
  • Re-elected 5 – Rob Fairs (Liberal)
  • Elected 6 – George Razay (Independent)
  • Elected 7 – Jess Greene (Labor)
  • Retired – Michelle O’Byrne (Labor)
  • Defeated – Simon Wood (Liberal)
  • Defeated – Rebekah Pentland (Independent, ex-Jacqui Lambie network)

Count now final. Razay elected 6, Jess Greene 7.

Final tally
George Razay (IND) – 6,968 (0.826 quotas) elected 6
Jess Greene (ALP) – 6,555 (0.777 quotas) elected 7
Geoff Lyons (ALP) 6,294 (0.746 quotas)
Final exhausted 5,473 (0.649 quotas). See final pie chart below.

Frydrych’s preferences went 40% to Razay, 10% to Greene, 12% Lyons and 38% exhausted.

Read More »TAS2025 – Bass – Tracking the Distribution of Preferences

ACT2024 – Post-Election Results Thread

Saturday 26 – Winners declared. I’ll update commentary once today’s Queensland election is over. The last spots discussed in the this blog went to the Greens’ Laura Nutall in Brindabella and Liberal Ed Cocks in Ginninderra.

The final party numbers are Labor ten, Liberal nine, Greens four, Independents for Canberra one, Fiona Carrick Independent one. The members re-elected, elected, defeated and retiring are as follows.

Brindabella

  • (1) Mark Parton (LIB) re-elected
  • (2) Deborah Morris (LIB) elected
  • (3) Caitlin Tough (ALP) elected
  • (4) Taimus Werner-Gibbings (ALP) elected
  • (5) Laura Nutall (GRN) re-elected
  • Defeated – Mick Gentleman (ALP)
  • Retired – Joy Burch (ALP) and Nicole Lauder (LIB)

Ginninderra

  • (1) Yvette Berry (ALP) re-elected
  • (2) Tara Cheyne (ALP) re-elected
  • (3) Peter Cain (LIB) re-elected
  • (4) Jo Clay (GRN) re-elected
  • (5) Chiaka Barry (LIB) re-elected
  • Defeated – Elizabeth Kikkert (Family First candidate, ex-Liberal MLA)

Kurrajong

  • (1) Andrew Barr (ALP) re-elected
  • (2) Elizabeth Lee (LIB) re-elected
  • (3) Rachel Stephen-Smith (ALP)
  • (4) Shane Rattenbury (GRN)
  • (5) Thomas Emmerson (IND)
  • Defeated – Rebecca Vassarotti (GRN)

Murrumbidgee

  • (1) Jeremy Hanson (LIB) re-elected
  • (2) Chris Steel (ALP) re-elected
  • (3) Fiona Carrick (IND) elected
  • (4) Ed Cocks (LIB) re-elected
  • (5) Marisa Paterson (ALP)
  • Defeated – Emma Davidson (GRN)

Yerrabi

  • (1) Michael Petterson (ALP) re-elected
  • (2) Suzanne Orr (ALP) re-elected
  • (3) Leanne Castley (LIB) re-elected
  • (4) James Milligan (LIB) re-elected
  • (5) Andrew Braddock (GRN) re-elected

Read More »ACT2024 – Post-Election Results Thread

ACT 2024 – Candidates and Parties Contesting Election

(Update – my ACT Election guide for the ABC has had a soft launch. You can access it at this link. There’s a little more work to be done on the page linking.

A total of 149 candidates have nominated to contest the 2024 ACT election. That’s a record number for an ACT election, up from 141 at the first 25-member Legislative Assembly election in 2016.

Taking into account the number of members to be elected, the average of 5.96 candidates per vacancy is only the third highest, surpassed by an average 6.4 candidates per vacancy in 1998 and 6.9 at the free-for-all first ACT election in 1989.

The chart below compares total candidate and average candidates per vacancy at ACT elections.

The number of candidates and group columns on ballot papers by electoral division are -

  • Brindabella - 24 candidates across 8 columns with one non-party candidate in the ungrouped column.
  • Ginninderra - 33 candidates across 10 columns with two non-party candidates in the ungrouped column.
  • Kurrajong - 34 candidates across 10 columns with one non-party candidate in the ungrouped column.
  • Murrumbidgee - 27 candidates across 8 columns with one non-party candidate in the ungrouped column.
  • Yerrabi - 31 candidates across 9 columns with two non-party and one Animal Justice candidates in the ungrouped column.

A table of candidates by party is inside the post.Read More »ACT 2024 – Candidates and Parties Contesting Election

How a Hare-Clark Count Works

10am today is the close-off time for receipt of Tasmanian election postal votes. After these votes have been added to the count, the Tasmanian Electoral Commission will begin an amalgamation count, where ballot papers by candidate by polling place are amalgamated into bundles of ballot papers by candidate by electorate.

Once amalgamation is complete, the Electoral Commission will begin distributing preferences. Over the next few days I will have a dedicated post for each division where I will summarise the progress of the 2024 count.

To visualise how the distribution of preferences takes place, this post summarises the 2021 count progress for Bass. It explains why vote for parties is much more important under Hare-Clark than it is at Senate elections, where above-the-line party votes control the count. Both Senate and Hare-Clark counts are conducted as contests between candidates, but with Hare-Clark the split of party votes between candidates is much more than at Senate elections.

The chart below shows the party totals at Count 1, the final tally of first preference votes.

Read More »How a Hare-Clark Count Works

Coverage of Tasmanian State Election and Dunstan By-election

This is one of my usual posts on election night designed to deal with the surge of visitors to the site driven by Google searches.

I will not be posting here this evening as I am involved in the ABC’s live coverage of the Tasmanian election. The coverage is being broadcast live across Tasmania from 6pm eastern daylight time on the ABC’s main channel, and across Australia on the ABC News channel. There will also be updates of the important Dunstan by-election in South Australia during the Tasmanian coverage.

The ABC will also be publishing live results at ABC-online. Access the Tasmanian live results site here. You can also find the Dunstan by-election results here.

Inside this post I have information on the early vote at both elections.Read More »Coverage of Tasmanian State Election and Dunstan By-election

Update on Tasmanian nominations, Dunkley and Dunstan by-elections

It’s been a hectic week preparing for Saturday night’s coverage of the Dunkley by-election, as well as dealing with the close of nominations for the Tasmanian election and the Dunstan by-election in South Australia.

Here’s a pointer to what I’ve been up to.

Dunkley By-election – 2 March

Knowing that Google recommendations send thousands of people to my blog site whenever there is an electoral event, i’m putting a link here to my Dunkley coverage.

I will not be blogging Dunkley results at this site. I will be on the ABC News channel and iView on Saturday night covering the results. There will also be live results on my ABC Dunkley by-election page. This will include polling place results, a map of polling place results, and I also have a Commentary page where I will be doing… Commentary. If the count takes several days to resolve, I will be doing my vote updates and analysis on the Dunkley by-election Commentary page.

I’ve also been keeping up to date with the pre-poll and postal voting rates for Dunkley which you can find in this blog post.Read More »Update on Tasmanian nominations, Dunkley and Dunstan by-elections