Greens Preferences Flow to Labor – 2010 and 2025 Compared
Over the past three decades, the Australian Greens have grown from a collection of state-based parties overshadowed by the centrist Australian Democrats, to being the largest of Australia’s minor parties.
Once minor parties were viewed as bit-players in Australian politics, mere preference conduits for the major parties. Today the Greens are important in their own right electorally, and through elected representation play an important role in Australian Parliaments.
Greens support is now high enough to guarantee the election of a Senator from each state at half-Senate elections. Were it not for party defections, the Greens would have a permanent team of 12 Senators in the 76 seat Senate.
As was highlighted by winning four House seats at the 2022 Federal election, the Greens are now competitive in up to a dozen House seats. Despite being reduced to one House seat in 2025, the Greens remain competitive with Labor and the Coalition.
The Greens won their first general election seat in 2010 on Liberal preferences, and would have won more seats since were it not for the Coalition’s decision since 2013 to put Labor candidates ahead of the Greens on how-to-vote preference recommendations.
In this post I’m comparing two elections 15 years apart, 2010 and 2025, and examining how support for the Greens and the party’s preference flows have changed.
The 2010 election was the first where the Greens passed 10% of the vote. Led by Bob Brown, the Greens were still seen largely as an environment party, and Brown helped Labor and Julia Gillard form government after the election. Adam Bandt won the electorate of Melbourne in 2010, coming from behind to win after receiving three-quarters of Liberal preferences.
As Greens leader at the 2025 election, Adam Bandt lost his seat at an election where the Greens vote was roughly the same as in 2010. But 15 years had seen the development of differences in the geographic pattern of Greens support, and an increase in preference flows to Labor.
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