gareth ward

Result Declared – Final Figures

Analysing the by-election swing is complicated by Gareth Ward’s victory as an Independent in 2023. Comparing Labor’s result to the contest against Ward in 2023 there is a 10.9% swing to Labor. By the alternative two-party preferred count from 2023, there is a 9.6% swing against Labor. But in 2023 there was a massive exhaustion rate caused by 69.5% of Ward voters having no preferences which inflated Labor’s two-party preferred result. As a result the two-party preferred swing is distorted which makes the two-candidate preferred swing a more reliable measure of the by-election swing.

Pre-election comment: My view since the start of the campaign is that Labor will win easily, as they would have won easily in 2023 had Gareth Ward not been on the ballot paper. Labor may even win a majority of the first preference vote and will certainly have the highest first preference vote. Based on the published how-to-vote preference recommendations, it is difficult to see how any other candidate can close Labor’s lead. Two weeks of bad headlines for the Federal Liberal Party can only have helped Labor’s cause.

Update: the campaign will be short with the by-election announced for Saturday 13 September. The writ will be issued on 22 August which in NSW electoral law is also the date when the electoral rolls closes. Nominations will close at noon on Thursday 28 August with early voting to begin on Saturday 6 September.

Draw for Ballot Positions 29 August – 13 candidates at the close of nominations. Labor drew the last position but will still be favoured to win. Details of the ballot paper inside post.

How-to-vote preference recommendations – details have been added

The resignation of former Independent MP Gareth Ward has set the stage for a by-election in his south coast seat of Kiama.

Ward has first elected as Liberal member for Kiama in 2011 at the Coalition’s landslide defeat of the Keneally Labor government. As outlined in this post, Kiama at the time was a traditional Labor seat, having been held by the party since its creation in 1981. He was re-elected in 2015 and again in 2019 with no swing against him. He resigned from the Liberal Party in 2020 after being charged with the sexual offences for which he was eventually convicted.

Ward was re-elected as an Independent in 2023 despite the charges hanging over his head. Two weeks ago he was convicted on the charges and placed in custody last week. Earlier this week he gained an injunction against the NSW Legislative Assembly moving a motion to expel him. His case was dismissed yesterday and the Assembly was due to debate an expulsion motion this morning. Before the debate could take place, Ward sent a resignation letter to the Speaker of the Assembly.

Read on for more information on the Kiama electorate.
Read More »NSW State District of Kiama set for By-election