NT2024 Election – Post-Election Blog
This post will track counting in the close seats that remain in play after the Country Liberal Party’s landslide victory.
This post is ordered with the most recent updates at the top of the page.
Wednesday 4 September
4:30pm – what happened in Nightcliff shows up strongly in the table below. The table shows preference flows to the Greens by polling place and count centre. It is ordered by ascending preference flows to the Greens. The higher the vote for Independent Mililma May, the stronger the flow of excluded candidate preferences to the Greens, and the stronger the CLP vote, the weaker the flow of preferences to the Greens.
| Polling Place/Count Centre | Votes | CLP Primary % | Ind May Primary % | % Preference Flows |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eaton EVC | 1,429 | 29.8 | 14.7 | 40.7 |
| Darwin EVC | 464 | 24.6 | 18.4 | 63.5 |
| Absent | 649 | 24.1 | 19.7 | 66.6 |
| Casuarina | 659 | 20.3 | 22.0 | 65.1 |
| Postal | 232 | 21.6 | 22.0 | 64.8 |
| Nightcliff School | 1,099 | 18.0 | 22.7 | 73.5 |
| Declaration | 35 | 17.1 | 31.4 | 79.2 |
| Total | 4,567 | 23.8 | 19.3 | 61.5 |
On the three way flow of preferences from May and Mamouzellos, preferences flowed 72.6% to the Greens, 14.0% to Labor and 13.4% to the CLP. On the exclusion of the CLP, preferences split 51.4% to Labor and 48.6% to the Greens. I had left the seat in doubt despite my assumption that 60% of CLP preferences would flow to Labor. It turns out I was right to leave Nightcliff in doubt as CLP preferences were weaker than I had expected. CLP voters made up their own minds on preferences with close to half ignoring the CLP HTV recommendation to put Labor before the Greens.
As the result is so close, the NT Electoral Commission will undertake a full re-count of all Nightcliff votes tomorrow. After the cut off for postal votes at midday on Friday, the final handful of postal votes will also be added to the count.
Nightcliff Update 3:45pm: The Labor versus Greens preference count has been released and the Greens are 42 votes ahead. There cannot be many votes left to count so this is bad news for Labor’s Natasha Fyles and the Greens must now be favoured to win.
If the Greens are confirmed as winning Nightcliff, Labor will be left with four seats, Arafura, Arnhem, Daly and Gwoja. Labor will be left with no urban seats, losing all seats they previously held in Darwin and Palmerston.
Nightcliff Update: The Labor-CLP two-party preferred count has disappeared from the NTEC results feed so I presume a re-throw of preferences is underway.
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