counting

(UPDATE: This was written on Sunday to try and explain how the count would unfold after election night. After a few days rest and recovery, I’ve started another post with rolling updates of the result which I will update at least once each day. For more regular updates I suggest you use the ABC election site which will update results every time the Electoral Commission produces new data. I’m doing work on the site weeding out inconsistencies in the Electoral Commission’s data.)

I’ve been in Adelaide this week working for the ABC on the state election coverage. I may have retired from on camera work, but I’m still involved in analysis off camera.

And last night was one of the most challenging coverages I’ve worked on. I estimate that half of the state’s 47 electorates had a choice of preferences that did not reflect the primary results that arrived on election night. One Nation finished in the top two in around half of the state’s seats. This was very many more seats than the Electoral Commission had prepared for.

That’s not a criticism of the Electoral Commission. It must nominate a pairing of candidate before the count is known, and is guided by history as much if not more than by opinion polls.

But that’s all about last night. Let me describe how the count will unfold from here.
Read More »Updates on the South Australian Election Result