by-elections

Preference Flows at the Secret Harbour By-Election

Update after full distribution of preferences published: The Liberal Party polled 4,777 votes. During the distribution of preferences, its tally rose to 6,018 votes. When excluded, 3,549 votes transferred to One Nation. That means it is mathematically impossible for Liberal preferences to flow to One Nation at a rate higher than 74.3%. (3549/4777).

My original estimate based on flow data counted out for the Early Voting Centre was that 70.2% of Liberal preferences flowed to One Nation. While I cannot update that number from the distribution of preferences, the lower Liberal vote on polling day suggests to me the % flow of Liberal preferences to One Nation is under 70%.

A quick break from my holiday to deal with some nonsense claims made about preference flows at the Secret Harbour by-election.

In this YouTube video, Topher Field uses some weird maths to come to the conclusion that the Secret Harbour by-election saw a record flow of Liberal and right-wing candidate preference flows to One Nation.

It is a bit hard to be clear what he is saying, but I think he comes to the conclusion that once you exclude left-wing parties from the calculations, 88% of preferences from right parties, including the Liberal Party, flowed to One Nation.

This claim is rubbish and preference flow data released by the WA Electoral Commission shows that claim to be wrong.
Read More »Preference Flows at the Secret Harbour By-Election

2026 – Nepean By-election – Count Centre Results

The tables in this post will be updated to show the results in each polling place, a total for early votes, and a total for each declaration vote type. There are three Early Voting Centres but the VEC’s computer system can only publish an aggregate total for early vote centres. Results appear as centres report.

Links: Result summary | Commentary | Swing Tables | Polling Place Results

Read More »2026 – Nepean By-election – Count Centre Results

2026 – Nepean By-election – Swing Tables

The tables in this post summarise the results by count centre.

  • The first table shows the Liberal primary and two-candidate preferred vote by count centre and associated swings since the 2022 state election.
  • The second table shows count centre percentages after summarising the eight candidates down to five group totals, Liberal, Independent Tracee Hutchison, One Nation, Greens and ‘Others’.
  • The third table shows change in results by count centre since the 2022 election using the five party group in the previous point.
  • The historical total for others compares the four ‘Other’ candidates at the by-election with 32.6% for Labor in 2022 and 10.5% for minor parties and independents in 2022.

Links: Result summary | Commentary | Swing Tables | Polling Place Results
Read More »2026 – Nepean By-election – Swing Tables

2026 – Nepean By-election – Results

This post contains an overall summary of the results of the 2026 Nepean by-election. The page will be regularly updated on election night. It will also be updated in the post-election period as election night votes are check counted and as postal and other declaration votes are included in the count.

Links: Result summary | Commentary | Swing Tables | Polling Place Results
Read More »2026 – Nepean By-election – Results

Farrer – a Liberal or National Seat?

(Update: the date for the by-election has been set for 9 May.)

In a previous post published on Friday, I went through a detailed history of the Farrer electorate.

In short, the seat was created in 1949. Until 1983 the seat was based on the southern NSW rural cities of Albury and Wagga Wagga and was always won by the Liberal Party. Traditionally the Liberal Party has dominated conservative politics in Albury and Wagga Wagga while the Nationals dominated areas further north and west. (In the past decade, the Nationals have supplanted the Liberals in Wagga Wagga though this is not relevant to Farrer.)

When the House of Representatives was expanded in 1984, Albury and Wagga Wagga were divided. Wagga Wagga went in to Hume (it’s now in Riverina) while Farrer retained Albury but was stretched west along the Murray River to the South Australian border. It combined a core Liberal area around Albury with National territory further west.

It was expected that long-time Albury Mayor and Liberal candidate John Roach would win the seat in a contest against state Nationals MLA Tim Fischer. Tony Wright has written a terrific historical piece for the SMH/Age on why Roach lost to Fischer which I recommend if you can access the story. In short it involved Roach travelling to the Netherlands mid-campaign to represent Albury for its part in saving a lost KLM plane in 1934. By the time he returned Fischer had streaked ahead in the battle to win Farrer. (The story also mentions Cleaver Bunton for fans of the Whitlam dismissal saga.)

Having won the seat, Fischer represented Farrer without a Liberal challenger until retiring in 2001. The seat was won that year by current Liberal MP and now recently deposed Liberal leader Sussan Ley. She has represented the seat without a Nationals opponent since.

With her retirement, it seems certain the Liberals and Nationals will face off in a contest also involving One Nation and 2025 Independent challenger Michelle Milthorpe. It looks set to be a remarkable contest.

But the starters gun on calling a by-election must await Ley’s letter of resignation to the Speaker. There is no legislated minimum or maximum period between a vacancy and the Speaker issuing a writ to hold a by-election. Once a writ is issued, the minimum campaign period is 33 days, just under five weeks, with a maximum campaign of nine weeks.

With both Coalition parties having held the seat over the years, which of the two has greater right to claim the seat as its rightful territory?

The answer is that two decades of boundary changes have tilted the playing in favour of the Nationals. But let me start by dissecting the last contest between the parties in 2001.Read More »Farrer – a Liberal or National Seat?

The Coalition to face a messy by-election in Sussan Ley’s seat of Farrer

(Update: the date for the by-election has been set for 9 May.)

After losing the Liberal leadership this morning, Sussan Ley has announced she will resign as member for her southern NSW seat of Farrer. Ley has held the seat since 2001 when she took it from the National Party after the retirement of Tim Fischer.

In two-party contests, Ley has held the seat with double digit margins since her first victory in a three-cornered contest in 2001. But that margin has been reduced in contests versus Independents at two of the last three elections, to 10.9% in 2019 and only 6.2% in 2025.

If Ley resigns it will set-up a very messy by-election for new Liberal Leader Angus Taylor.

Under the Coalition agreement, the Nationals did not contest Farrer while Ley was member. With the seat vacant, it is certain that the Nationals will run against the new Liberal candidate.

Given current polling, One Nation would be certain to contest. Two of the last three contests for Farrer have seen Independents reach second place. Labor may contest the by-election, but the party has not reached a quarter of the primary vote since 2007. More likely Labor would sit out the contest and leave the field free for a conservative slugfest.

The last few weeks of Coalition disputes and Liberal leadership rumours could well drag on ahead of a Farrer by-election.
Read More »The Coalition to face a messy by-election in Sussan Ley’s seat of Farrer

Comments on the Hinchinbrook By-election Result

Predictions ahead of Saturday’s by-election in the north Queensland seat of Hinchinbrook generally hinted the seat would be retained by Katter’s Australian Party.

The LNP mounted a vigorous campaign, but in a time when voters seem attracted by alternatives to the major parties, the collective wisdom was that Katter’s Australian Party would retain Hinchinbrook.

The by-election had been caused by the resignation of Nick Dametto, MLA for the seat since 2017. Dametto resigned to contest election as Mayor of Townsville and won easily with 61.5% of the first preference vote.

But the election of his successor in Hinchinbrook went against expectations. LNP candidate Wayde Chiesa won with 41.4% of the first preference vote, 53.8% after preferences, and a swing of 17.0%.

It was the first time a Queensland seat had been gained by a governing party at a by-election since 1998 when the Beattie Labor government won the nearby north Queensland seat of Mulgrave from One Nation. In Mulgrave the One Nation MLA had served less than six months, which leaves Hinchinbrook as a more significant victory with the LNP winning back a seat lost in 2017.

Inside the post I’ll look at the implications of the result, for LNP Queensland re-election prospects, for Labor given the collapse in the party’s support, and examine prospects for One Nation and Katter’s Australian Party.

In my view, it is hard to draw firm conclusions. Hinchinbrook is a traditional National/LNP seat, but one where the LNP has constantly been threatened by third parties. It has long been a weak seat for Labor, and Labor contesting the seat can only have been to maintain morale in local party branches, and to avoid giving Labor supporters a chance to practice voting for the Greens.

Labor’s concern in the result is if the unusually low Hinchinbrook result is reflective of declining Labor support in Townsville and other Queensland coastal cities. The last two Federal elections have shown that Labor can win elections without winning rural and regional seats, a situation that also applies in other mainland states. But that’s not the case in Queensland.

There are not enough winnable seats in south-east Queensland to deliver a majority Labor government. The Queensland Labor Party relies on winning a number of seats in the state’s coastal regional cities for victory. Labor lost the 2024 election on the back of regional losses and needs to turn around declining regional support if it hopes to win the 2028 state election.
Read More »Comments on the Hinchinbrook By-election Result

Why does NSW have a 12-month Delay on Registered Parties being granted the Benefits of Registration?

Before nominations for the Kiama by-election (background here) closed on Thursday, Family First issued a press release stating the party had withdrawn from the contest.

Family First’s registered officer, Lyle Shelton, stated that “Family First has been BANNED from running in the Kiama by-election – not by the voters, but by petty rules designed by the big parties to protect themselves.”

“Our candidate Kyle Napoleoni was ready to give locals a family-friendly choice, but NSW law says new parties must sit on the sidelines for 12 months after registration.”

Shelton states the position more correctly later in the press release writing “The NSW Electoral Commission this week advised the party it could not accept candidate Kyle Napoleoni’s nomination.”

“Banned” is not what happened. Rather, the NSWEC refused the nomination because it was lodged by the party’s registered officer. Family First was registered to contest NSW elections in April this year. In every other Australian jurisdiction the nomination would have been accepted and the party’s name and logo printed on the ballot paper. But not in NSW where a registered party does not have these rights until 12 months after being registered.

Kyle Napoleoni could still have nominated, but not as the candidate of a registered party. He would have needed nomination with signatures by 25 electors on the Kiama electoral roll. I presume Family First did not have time to arrange signatures after the central nomination was rejected. But even with nominators, Napoleoni would have been denied a party name and logo on the ballot paper.

So why does NSW have this strange rule? It all goes back to the 1999 NSW Legislative Council election and its infamous “tablecloth” ballot paper.

And rather than being a rule put in place to benefit only the big parties, its implementation was backed by the minor parties in parliament at the time.

Let me explain how we got here.Read More »Why does NSW have a 12-month Delay on Registered Parties being granted the Benefits of Registration?

Live Coverage of the Prahran and Werribee By-elections

With a Federal election just weeks away, there’s deep interest in two Victorian state by-elections being held today.

The first is in the inner-city seat of Prahran, vacant following the resignation of former Greens MLA Sam Hibbins. With no Labor candidate in the field, it is expected that the Greens will retain the seat.

There is greater interest in the Werribee by-election caused by the departure of former state Treasurer Tim Pallas. It’s in Melbourne’s outer south-west suburbs, an area where government services and capital works expenditure has been lagging rapid population growth. That recent elections have seen marginal seats in outer south-east Melbourne attract greater promises than Labor’s safe western Melbourne seats has not gone without notice.

I won’t be doing any commentary here. This post is simply a pointer to my by-election coverage page. This post is to re-direct with the huge spike in visitors this site receives via Google on any night when there is an election.

I will be running a live results update service and providing commentary on the ABC’s elections site.

You can find Prahran results here.

And the Werribee results here.

And there is a commentary page where I will add comments on both results.

You can navigate between the results pages and access the pages of background material on the contests that has been available on the site for several weeks.Read More »Live Coverage of the Prahran and Werribee By-elections