Background on One Nation’s Impact on Elections and Politics
Earlier this week I appeared on the ABC’s ‘Politics Now’ podcast with Patricia Karvelas talking about the history and electoral performance of One Nation. I discussed how it burst on to the political scene initially before fading away until Pauline Hanson returned to the party a decade ago.
You can find the podcast at this link.
For the podcast I compiled a briefing note on One Nation’s emergence, early spectacular performance, its disappearance in the early 2000s, and how its has performed since re-entering national politics a decade ago. This post adds some additional detail to the original brief. I have written this post largely from my memory of covering these elections and have verified most of the numbers used.
In my opinion, One Nation has seen off most other political rivals to the right of the Coalition and has established itself as the fourth force of Australian politics. The big three are Labor and the Coalition dominating the centre ground of Australian politics, while the Greens having established themselves as a competitor to Labor on the left of politics.
Having doubled its Senate numbers in 2025 courtesy of Coalition preferences, One Nation now appears established to the right of the Coalition on the political spectrum. Is it a threat to the Coalition electorally? Will One Nation become a permanent fixture in the Senate? Will the next Coalition government find One Nation a force it must accommodate in the Senate, as Labor has learned to do with the Greens?
With One Nation now polling double digit support since the 2025 election, does One Nation provide an electoral opportunity for the Coalition? Or as often happened in One Nation’s early years, is it a threat to the Coalition, and in particular the National Party?Read More »Background on One Nation’s Impact on Elections and Politics