Stafford By-election Preview

Last week it was the Farrer by-election, a week earlier the Nepean by-election. Both Liberal held seats where the interest was how One Nation would perform against the Liberal Party in contests with no Labor candidate.

This week’s Stafford by-election flips the interest. This time it’s inner-city Brisbane and a Labor held seat with no One Nation candidate.

It’s a conventional two-party contest where Labor is defending one of its marginal seats two years after losing state government to the LNP. And there is added interest with how preferences will flow following a decision by the Greens to make no recommendation of preferences. Will leakage of Greens preferences cost Labor one of its traditional Brisbane seats?

Profile

Stafford lies in Brisbane’s inner north and includes the suburbs of Chermside, Stafford, Stafford Heights, Grange, Wilston and parts of Chermside West, Wavell Heights, Alderley and Newmarket. It covers 21 square kilometres.

History

First contested at the 1972 election, Stafford was a seat that changed party several times until being abolished in 1992. It was revived as an electorate name at the 2001 election, largely replacing the former Labor electorates of Chermside and Kedron. It was represented 2001-06 by Terry Sullivan, his third seat in Parliament after representing Nundah 1991-92 and Chermside 1992-2001. Sullivan was succeeded by Stirling Hinchliffe at the 2006 election who represented Stafford until swept away at Labor’s landslide 2012 defeat.

His successor was the LNP’s Dr Chris Davis. He was appointed Assistant Minister for Health when the Newman government came to office. In 2014 he began to raise questions concerning the government’s handling of the doctor’s contract dispute in Queensland Hospitals, as well as changes to the Crime and Misconduct Commission. This resulted in him being dismissed as Assistant Minister. Davis subsequently raised concerns about the government’s changes to electoral donation laws, missed the vote on the legislation and then announced his resignation from Parliament.

This triggered the July 2014 Stafford by-election. It was won for Labor by high-profile maxillofacial surgeon Dr Anthony Lynham. The double digit swing that elected Lynham proved predictive of the swing that awaited Premier Campbell Newman in February 2015 when his government’s record majority was not enough to prevent defeat. After only one term in opposition, Labor returned to the government benches under Annastacia Palaszczuk.

Lynham served as Minister for Natural Resources, Mines and Energy through the first two terms of the Palaszczuk government and retired at the 2020 election to resume his career as a surgeon. He was succeeded as member for Stafford by Labor’s Jimmy Sullivan. He retained Stafford at the 2024 election but was dogged by problems in his private life and was sadly found dead two months ago.

Past Voting Patterns

Stafford has consistently recorded Labor two-party preferred results 5-10% higher than Labor’s state-wide result. Even when Stafford was lost to the LNP in 2012, its two-party result was above the state figure.

Labor’s primary vote dipped to finish second on defeat in 2012. The Labor primary vote lead dipped on the defeat of the Miles government in 2024. The Greens have polled above 10% at every election since 2001 and have been above 16% at the last three elections. One Nation contested Stafford at the 2020 and 2024 election but polled under 4%. One Nation has opted out of contesting the Stafford by-election.

Candidates

Main Candidates

	Luke Richmond – Australian Labor Party Campaign website Richmond is a lifelong Northside local, attending local schools and now lives in Stafford Heights. He is a lawyer with a background in health policy. Before the by-election he had been assistant state secretary of Queensland Labor since November 2025.
	Fiona Hammond – LNP Campaign website Hammond served 15 years on Brisbane City Council representing Marchant Ward from 2008 to 2023. She resigned from Council to unsuccessfully contest Stafford at the 2024 state election and returns to contest the by-election.

Preferences

There were similar flows in Stafford at the 2020 election with Greens preferences 85.9% to Labor and One Nation 65% to the LNP.

The following how-to-vote recommendations have been registered with the Electoral Commission.

• The Greens have registered a how-to-vote that makes no recommendation of preferences.
• Legalise Cannabis list the Greens at 5 and Labor at 6.
• Independent Smart has the LNP at 4 and Labor 5.
• The Libertarians list the LNP at 2 and Labor at 6.
• Independent Parry has the Greens at 2, Labor at 4, LNP 6.
• Animal Justice have Labor at 2 and the Greens at 3.
• Family First have the LNP at 4 and Labor at 6.