SA2026 – One Nation polling and its prospects of winning seats

The last few weeks have seen an opinion poll surge in support for One Nation at the expense of the Liberal Party.

Clearly opinion polls are measuring a real political phenomena with dramatic shifts in support on the right of Australian politics.

The question is, are the polling numbers reporting actual voting intentions, or is it just measuring between election disenchantment with the current course of politics?

We may be about to find an answer to this question with something better than an opinion poll – an actual election in South Australia on 21 March.

The working assumption for most of the last four years has been that the Labor government, led by popular Premier Peter Malinauskas, will be easily re-elected. Labor won 27 of 47 seats in 2022, has gained two more seats at by-elections since, and opinion polls have consistently shown Labor’s support higher than at the last election.

Which means that the story attracting most attention on 21 March might be the fate of the Liberal Opposition, and what a dreadful result means for the Federal Coalition.

The Liberal Party’s dreadful result in South Australia at last May’s Federal election, wiped out in all metropolitan seats, could portend an even worse fate at the state election. Recent polling has the Liberal primary vote collapsing and a surge in One Nation support. (See my previous post of the 2025 Federal result in South Australia.)

In this post I run through detail on how One Nation performed in South Australian federal seats in 2025, and in the Senate. I also look at the party’s performance in state seats at the 2022 election, including voting for the Legislative Council.

(See my previous post on the 2022 South Australian election which includes link to my publication summarising the result in both houses and including detailed analysis of lower house preference flows.)

In this post I also analyse One Nation preference flows at the 2025 Federal and 2022 state election. In complex three and four candidate contests, the order of candidate exclusion and complex preference flows could be critical.

I then run through some of the key contests at the election. In short polling says Labor will retain all its own seats and most likely make gains at the Liberal Party’s expense, possibly winning every seat in the Adelaide metropolitan area.

Which leaves how the contest will unfold in rural South Australia. Polling shows One Nation support surging at the expense of the Liberal Party and Independents. I have my suspicions that state-wide polling based on party vote overlooks that most regional SA seats will be contested by popular Independent members and candidates. I suspect some of the reported One Nation support will in fact be swept up by Independents.

Which is not to say the SA election on 21 March will prove the polls right or wrong. The polls are measuring disenchantment with politics, but perhaps are not capable of isolating the candidates that will benefit from a shifting voter mood.

For all the talk of whether there will by a preference arrangement, formal or otherwise, between Liberal and One Nation and against Labor, the presence of Independents creates more than simple binary preference contests. Options for voters to preference Independents ahead of the major parties and One Nation complicates the picture in regional seats and makes order of exclusion for preferences a complicating factor in turning party vote shares into elected members.

2025 Federal Results in South Australia

The table below shows the One Nation primary vote percentage for South Australia’s 10 electoral divisions. Percentage votes are shown for both the House and Senate. The final two columns capture a broader measure of support for alternative right parties by combining support for One Nation, Trumpet of Patriots and Gerard Rennick’s People First.

FED2025 – One Nation Support by SA Federal Division

				One Nation %		ONP/ToP/GRPF %
Division	Demography	Held by	2PP %	House	Senate	House	Senate
Adelaide	Inner Metro	ALP	69.1	4.0	2.8	6.8	5.7
Barker	Regional	LIB	37.0	8.2	7.7	10.9	12.2
Boothby	Inner Metro	ALP	61.1	3.0	2.5	5.8	5.4
Grey	Regional	LIB	45.4	10.0	9.4	12.5	13.1
Hindmarsh	Inner Metro	ALP	66.4	5.0	4.2	9.2	8.5
Kingston	Outer Metro	ALP	70.7	6.2	5.5	9.9	10.3
Makin	Outer Metro	ALP	64.7	6.7	5.6	10.8	10.1
Mayo	Regional	CA	55.0	6.0	5.3	8.8	9.6
Spence	Outer Metro	ALP	65.3	9.5	7.9	13.5	13.0
Sturt	Inner Metro	ALP	56.6	3.4	2.9	5.6	5.7
State-wide				6.2	5.3	9.3	9.3

Party Codes: One Nation (ONP), Trumpet of Patriots (ToP), Gerrard Rennick’s People First (GRPF).

Overall One Nation support was 6.2% in the House and 5.3% in the Senate. One Nation House support was 3.9% in Inner Metropolitan seats, 7.5% in Outer Metropolitan seats and 7.9% in Regional seats. In the senate the equivalent figures were 3.1%, 6.4% and 7.4%.

Two of the highest One Nation votes were in the rural seats of Barker and Grey, the Liberal Party’s two remaining SA seats. A third strong seat for One Nation was Spence, a very safe Labor seat in outer northern Adelaide.

Given neither Trumpet of Patriots nor Gerard Rennick’s People First are contesting the SA election, the final columns combining these two parties with One Nation may give a better estimate of possible One Nation support. (Of course before the recent poll surge.) The three-party total was 10.6% in the House, 11.6% in the Senate. The demographic breakdown for the House was 6.8% Inner Metropolitan, 11.4% Outer Metropolitan and 10.6% in Regional seat. Again, the rural seats of Barker and Grey stand out with strong support, as does Spence, neighbouring Makin and the outer southern Adelaide seat of Kingston.

This demographic pattern is the same as One Nation’s previous record vote at the 1998 Federal election. The party polled 9.8% in the House, 9.7% in the Senate. Inner metropolitan House support was 6.8%, Outer Metropolitan 10.1% and Rural 14.1%. The party’s house support reached double digits in the three 1998 rural seats, Barker 13.0%, Grey 12.6% and Wakefield 16.7%. Bonython, an abolished seat whose boundaries approximate today’s Spence, was One Nation’s best Adelaide seat in 1998 with 14.8%.

2022 South Australian Election

For the House of Assembly election, One Nation contested 19 seats, seven in Adelaide and 12 in the rest of the state. State-wide One Nation polled 2.6%, but a better measure of support is polling 6.6% in the 19 seats it contested, 6.4% in Adelaide seats and 6.6% in regional seats.

One Nation’s regional support may have been suppressed by the presence of strong Independents in the seats of Finniss, Hammond, Kavel, Narungga and Stuart. By seat the party polled 11.0% in mid-northern Frome, 8.1% in the south-east seat of Mackillop and 9.9% in Riverland based Chaffey. There were no significant Independents in these three seats.

In Adelaide One Nation’s best results were 9.9% in outer northern Elizabeth, 8.8% in neighbouring Taylor, and 8.2% in outer southern Kaurna. Elizabeth and Taylor are in the Federal seat of Spence where One Nation also polls strongly.

In the Legislative Council, One Nation was on the ballot paper in every electorate. The party polled 4.2% state-wide, 3.4% in Adelaide electorates and 6.2% in non-metropolitan seats. One Nation’s Council vote was above 5% in 17 seats, 12 of them regional seats. Of the five Adelaide seats above 5%, four corresponded to Spence with the adjacent seats of Elizabeth, Light, Ramsay and Taylor. The fifth was outer southern Kaurna.

All these results correspond to the Federal pattern of strongest support in rural and regional seats, with a patch of strong One Nation vote in northern Adelaide seats centred on Elizabeth.

One Nation Preferences

At the 2025 Federal election, One Nation preferences in South Australia flowed 71.0% to the Liberal Party and 29.0% to Labor. Preferences were recommended to the Liberal Party in all 10 seats and the range of flows was narrow, from 65.6% in Spence to 79.1% in Sturt. The flows were well up from 2022 when the flow to the Liberal Party was 58.8%. One Nation’s vote was higher in 2025, 6.2% versus 4.8%. One Nation was more active in recommending preferences for the Liberal Party in 2025.

At the 2022 state election, One Nation listed the Liberal Party ahead of Labor on HTV recommendations in 15 seats with preferences flowing 53.9% to Liberal on a range from 42.5% to 65.7%. In the four seats where Labor was favoured by a HTV recommendation, preferences split evenly. Overall preferences were 53.2% to Liberal.

If One Nation is more active in recommending preferences to the Liberal Party in 2026, I suspect the preference flows will reflect the 71% seen at the 2025 Federal election.

Four electorates with One Nation candidates finished as Liberal v Independent contests in 2022. In Finniss, Kavel and Narungga, One Nation recommended preferences to the Independent on its registered HTV, and towards the Liberal Party in Stuart. In all four seats preferences heavily favoured the Independent as shown below. Finniss was narrowly retained by the Liberal Party, the other three seats won by Independents.

With Independents again a feature of the 2026 SA election, strong flows of One Nation preferences may play an important role in deciding some seats. Though this assumes that One Nation does not finish as one of the final two candidates.

We have very little evidence of how Liberal preferences would flow in a contest involving One Nation versus Labor. Queensland state election Liberal preference flows to One Nation can be 75-80% where directed. (See my previous post on what we know about Liberal preferences when directed to One Nation.)

Polls and the Seats where One Nation could Win

Four state polls have been published this month – Newspoll, YouGov, Fox & Hedgehog, and DemosAU/AceStrategy. The results by party can be summarised as –

• Labor in range 37-44% compared to 40.0% in 2022.
• Liberal 14-20% compared to 35.7% in 2022.
• Greens 12-13% compared to 9.1% in 2022.
• One Nation in range 19-24%, up from 2.6%.
• Others 6-9% down from 12.6%

How would this turn into seats? Let me look at the parties separately.

Labor: Labor won 17 of its 27 seats won in 2022 on first preferences. If you assume that Labor gets roughly the same state-wide vote as in 2022, it should have little difficulty retaining all these seats. Polling indicates that One Nation is surging at the expense of the Liberal Party. In the past, One Nation tends to cannibalise Liberal support in safe Labor seats rather than eat significantly in Labor support. Labor should etain these 17 seats.

Labor holds only two seats outside of metropolitan Adelaide and both were won on primary votes in 2022. The future of the Whyalla steel plant in Giles is a huge issue, but would voters abandon a government trying to save the plant and back One Nation instead? Mawson to the south of Adelaide is complicated by the retirement of enormously popular Labor MP Leon Bignell. He has had a swing towards him at every election even as the seat’s boundaries were extended beyond Adelaide to Kangaroo Island. Labor could lose the seat with the loss of Bignell’s personal vote, but the dire state of the Liberal Party’s polling should aid Labor. In addition, Mawson is not natural One Nation territory.

Labor won 10 further seats on preferences. Three were in Labor seats, Badcoe, Florey and Torrens. The other seven were in metropolitan gains from the Liberal Party. In four Labor’s primary vote was above 39.6%, Adelaide, Davenport (won from second), Elder and Gibson (won from second). None should be at risk. Labor’s primary vote was lower in three other seats, King, Newland and a complex four-way contest in Waite. Any collapse in Liberal support will boost Labor’s hopes of retaining all these seats.

Which is also the case in two seats Labor has gained at by-elections since 2022, Dunstan and Black. The Liberal primary vote was above 46% in both seats in 2022 and you would expect the decline in Liberal support to favour Labor.

In short current polling points to Labor retaining the 29 seats it holds and retaining government. For Labor the question is how many seats it can add to its tally.

Metropolitan Liberal seats: Following the loss of Dunstan and Black at by-elections, the Liberal Party holds only six of Adelaide’s 33 seats. Four were won on first preferences in 2022, Bragg (margin 8.2%), Colton (4.8%), Hartley (3.6%) and Morphett (4.5%). Morialta (1.4%) and Unley (2.2%) were narrow wins despite primary votes above 46%.

Making matters worse for the Liberal Party, three of its well-known sitting members are retiring, Matt Cowdrey (Colton), John Gardner (Morialta) and David Pisoni (Unley).

Bragg is by far the safest Liberal seat with a Labor primary vote of only 28.6% in 2022. But realistically, Bragg and the other five Liberal seats are all at risk of being lost to Labor. Polling points to the surge in One Nation support eating into the Liberal vote. Of all Liberal votes lost to One Nation, perhaps only three-quarters will come back as a preference. Even with no rise in Labor’s primary vote, all of the Liberal Party’s Adelaide seats should see a swing to Labor as One Nation eats into the Liberal vote.

Liberal Regional seats: The table below breaks down party support for Adelaide versus Regional South Australia.

Everything we know about One Nation’s past support says that it polls more strongly in regional seats. The Fox & Hedgehog poll reported a party breakdown in non-metropolitan seats of Labor 29% (+4% on 2022), Liberal 24% (-15%), One Nation 26% (+20%), Greens 9% (+3%) and Others 9% (-12%).

Four seats were won by Independents in 2022, Kavel (on first preferences), Mount Gambier, Narungga and Stuart. Narungga was the only seat where the Independent polled under 40% on primary votes. Dan Cregan (Kavel) and Troy Bell (Mount Gambier) will not be contesting the 2025 election. Several Liberal seats, including Finniss, Flinders and Hammond attracted strong Independents in 2022. In 2025, most Liberal seats outside of Adelaide will attract strong Independent candidates.

Which is where I see a problem with published polling. I don’t believe that support for Independents has collapsed in regional South Australia since 2022. I think some of the surge in One Nation support is in response to a generic polling question. Many disenchanted voters already have high profile Independent members and candidates in their local seat. It is Independents who are a bigger threat to the Liberal Party, but complex four cornered contests increase the importance of the order candidates finish on primary votes, and affect whose preferences get distributed.

What will the Liberal Party and One Nation do with preference recommendations in seats with a significant Independent? As noted earlier, three-quarters of One Nation preferences flowed to Independents in 2022. If One Nation were excluded, would its supporters rather help elect an Independent or a Liberal? If the Liberal Party of necessity favours One Nation over Labor in preference recommendations, would it take a different approach and put an Independent ahead of both One Nation and Labor in seats with strong Independents?

As for Labor, it recommended preferences to Independents in all relevant seats in 2022 and produced preference flows of more than 70%.

Independents tend to issue open preference recommendations which means Independent preference flows will come down to voter perceptions of the other parties. In the absence of a preference recommendation, will Independent voters favour Liberal or One Nation candidates with preferences?

The story in regional South Australia comes down to the size of any swing against the Liberal, and whether voters more to One Nation or Independents. There will be complex three and four cornered contests where the order of candidate exclusion will determine results. In my opinion, polling is over-estimating One Nation support in regional areas and under-estimating Independent support. Labor has few prospects in regional seats outside the Adelaide Hills. Labor preferences will boost Independents, but what will One Nation and the Liberal Party recommend?

An Update on 2022 How-to-Votes

Since publishing this post yesterday, I’ve gone back and looked at the how-to-vote material registered with the Electoral Commission in 2022. This is the material displayed in front of electors on voting partitions.

Of the 19 electorates contested by One Nation, the Liberal Party listed Labor ahead of One Nation in 11 electorates and One Nation before Labor in eight.

All preference orderings appear to have been arranged to produce a straightforward preference sequence that can be easily copied. I do not know if material distributed outside polling places had a different ordering.