2026 South Australian Election Preview

The Labor Party is set for a landslide victory at this weekend’s South Australian election. Yet despite its forgone result, the election is set to dominate national political debate in its aftermath. Not because of who will win, but rather over who will finish second.

The Labor government of Peter Malinauskas was first elected in 2022, winning a sweeping victory that added Steven Marshall to the list of his state’s one term Liberal Premiers.

Since coming to office, Malinauskas has dominated opinion polls and his Liberal opponents. Steven Marshall retired the leadership after the 2022 election. David Spiers and Vincent Tarzia have come and gone. Now it is Ashton Hurn, just 35, female and a first term MP, who has been left with under than 100 days to restore her party’s fortunes.

Hurn has taken over a Liberal opposition that has trailed Labor in the polls for four years. Labor has gained the seats of Hurn’s predecessors Steven Marshall and David Spiers at by-elections. It is less than a year since the Federal election when Labor swept every seat in metropolitan Adelaide.

And the federal situation has worsened since. Nationally the Coalition is stalked by the spectre of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation. Hanson’s party has undergone a massive revival as cost-of-living pressure has grown and the Coalition has descended into fratricide and internal division.

National polling has shown One Nation matching and even outpolling the Coalition. As the first quarter of 2026 has passed, even federal Labor’s primary vote has begun to slip with the rise One Nation.

South Australian polls have not shown a similar decline in Labor support, but they have replicated the shift from the Liberal Party to One Nation. With final polls agreeing that One Nation is now polling second, the question is – who will finish second on election day?

To date all we have is opinion polls. Are the polls measuring disenchantment or voting intention? Saturday’s South Australian election may finally tell us whether One Nation’s rise is real.

So dominant is state Labor that perhaps the election is not a true test of the national mood. But it is a measure of whether the polls are right.

If One Nation finishes second in the vote, and Liberal support follows the polls and drops below 20%, then the feverish spiral of recent Coalition politics may worsen.

Are voters going to turn out and vote for One Nation in numbers not seen since One Nation’s first electoral test at the 1998 Queensland election? And will this turn into seats?

Labor is expected to dominate Adelaide, but will we see One Nation poll strongly in the city’s north where Labor’s safest seats lie. Thirty three of the state’s 47 seats are in the metropolitan area. For One Nation to poll above 20% state-wide, it must poll strongly in Adelaide even if the result sees more second places than seat wins.

The collapse in Liberal support will see the party lose further seats to Labor with another metropolitan wipe-out possible. The One Nation threat will be greatest in rural seats where the Liberal Party is already challenged by Independents. Will One Nation further damage Liberal prospects?

And if One Nation matches its polling numbers, can its vote be turned into seats?

Electoral Pendulum

In this post I show the margins for seats of interest. If you are after margins for all seats, I published a post with an electoral pendulum late last year.

Labor’s Marginal Seats

In traditional two-party preferred terms, there are only five seats of any concern for Labor.

The first two were Liberal retains in 2022 that were gained by Labor by-elections. Both were held by former Liberal Leaders.

Dunstan (ALP 0.8%) covers the inner eastern suburbs of Adelaide. It is named after former Labor Premier Don Dunstan who represented the district for 25 years under its former name of Norwood. It was first won by Liberal Steven Marshall in 2010. He was Premier from 2018 to 2022 and narrowly retained his own seat as his government was defeated. Marshall resigned in early 2024 with Labor’s Cressida O’Hanlon winning Dunstan after a swing of 1.4%. As at the by-election her Liberal opponent will be Anna Finizio.

Black (ALP 9.9%) was held by Marshall’s leadership successor David Spiers. He resigned to be replaced as leader by Vincent Trazia in mid-2024. Soon after a scandal emerged when film of Spiers sniffing an unidentified white powder emerged. Spiers resigned and was charged with drug offences shortly before the by-election in his seat of Black. There was a 12.6% swing with Labor’s Alex Dighton winning the seat at his second attempt. Spiers has surprisingly nominated to contest his former seat as an Independent but receives no benefit from major party preference recommendations.

The seats of Davenport (ALP 3.4%) and Waite (ALP 4.0%) neighbour each other in the inner southern and lower hills suburbs of Adelaide. Both were first time Labor victories with Erin Thomson coming from behind to win on preferences in Davenport, while Catherine Hutchesson won a complex contest in Waite that involved two Independents polling in double figures. Labor is expected to retain both seats.

Labor’s final concern would be Mawson (ALP 13.8%). That Labor holds Mawson is down almost entirely to the efforts of sitting member Leon Bignell. He is retiring after representing a seat called Mawson since 2006. I say ‘named’ as the bellwether southern suburban seat of Mawson that Bignell first won was transformed by the 2016 redistribution into a mainly rural seat. It runs from Aldinga and McLaren Vale, down the Fleurieu Peninsula and includes Kangaroo Island. His retirement means new candidate Jenni Milton competes with Liberal Mike Holden in an open contest.

Labor versus One Nation

Recent national polls have suggested some leakage of Labor support to One Nation, but to date the trend has not emerged in South Australian polling. Labor polled 40% of the primary vote in 2022 and won 19 of its the 27 seats on first preferences. Some polls have shown Labor slipping to 37-38%, which does not suggest a problem for Labor.

Several decades of elections have taught us that One Nation can poll higher in safe Labor seats, but not enough to threaten Labor except in Queensland. At state and federal elections in South Australia, One Nation’s best metropolitan results have been in safe Labor seats north of Grand Junction Road.

All are safe Labor seats. In 2022 One Nation polled 10.4% in Elizabeth (ALP 21.7%) and 8.8% in Taylor (ALP 18.4%). One Nation also polled 8.2% in the outer southern seat of Kaurna (ALP 19.8%). It may be that One Nation reaches second place in these seats, but even with Liberal preferences, it would take a spectacular collapse of Labor’s primary vote for any of these seats to be at risk.

One seat where One Nation is likely to reach second place is the north-east Adelaide seat of Wright (ALP 11.9%). Labor’s campaign spokesman Blair Boyer should be easily re-elected, but One Nation may finish second after the Liberal Party’s Caston Keong-Woodhouse was disendorsed. He was captured in a US Christian podcast expressing extremely politically incorrect views on women, gays and moslems. After a day of bad headlines he was dumped by the Liberal Party and is reported to have stopped campaigning.

Adelaide Liberal Seats

Liberal chances in three of the party’s marginal Adelaide seats have been damaged by retirements. In Morialta (LIB 1.4%), John Gardiner is retiring after 16 years. David Pisoni is retiring as MP for Unley (LIB 2.2%) after 20 years. Matt Cowdrey has only held Colton (LIB 4.8%) for eight years, but his 2022 victory was notable for keeping the swing to Labor under 2%.

Former Liberal Leader Vincent Tarzia has withstood strong challenges in his eastern Adelaide seat of Hartley (3.6%) in the past. This includes warding off Nick Xenophon in 2018. In resigning from the leadership, Tarzia spoke of concentrating on retaining Hartley, but faces a tough contest against Labor’s Jenn Roberts. Also with a tough fight is Stephen Patterson in Glenelg based Morphett (LIB 4.5%).

Which leaves only one Liberal seat, Vicki Chapman’s former seat of Bragg (LIB 8.2%). It was narrowly retained for the Liberal Party at a 2022 by-election by Jack Batty. His Labor opponent is criminologist and legal academic Rick Sarre, who has two previous failed campaigns for the local Federal seat of Sturt, and lost to Vicki Chapman in Bragg at the last two state elections.

Near Adelaide Seats

There are several seats in the Adelaide Hills and areas to the east that in the past have been Liberal heartland. Most lie within the federal seat of Mayo, held by former Nick Xenophon candidate Rebekha Sharkie since 2016. Liberal support has ebbed further since, the Liberals slipping to third place behind Labor in 2025. Mayo overlaps with several state Liberal seats that are at risk this weekend.

Schubert (LIB 11.9%) is north-east of metropolitan Adelaide and covers the Barossa Valley. It is held by Liberal Leader and first term MP Ashton Hurn. Unlike neighbouring seats, there is no significant Independent in the seat. Hurn’s main opponents are Labor’s James Rothe and outspoken One Nation candidate Bruce Preece.

Kavel (LIB 3.5%) has been re-assigned as a Liberal seat with the retirement of Independent MHA Dan Cregan. Independent Matt Schultz is campaigning with Cregan’s endorsement, but faces a challenge from new Liberal candidate Bradley Orr, and high-profile Labor candidate and Mount Barker Mayor David Leach. The Liberal Party will be desperate to recover what was once one of its heartland seats. The electorate has shrunk in area and Labor support risen in recent years as Mount Barker has grown and slowly transformed into a dormitory suburb of Adelaide.

Between Kavel and the Adelaide plain lies Heysen (LIB 2.6%), another traditional Liberal seat, but one where third parties have finished second in the past. Liberal Deputy Leader Josh Teague has held the seat since 2014, but outer urban population growth has seen the seat shrink in area and become less safe for the Liberal Party. Both Teague’s main opponents had trial runs as candidates in Mayo at last year’s Federal election. The Green candidate is Genevieve Dawson-Scott while Labor’s Marisa Bell outpolled the Liberals last May.

Finniss (LIB 0.7% v IND) is south of Adelaide and covers the built-up areas fringing Encounter Bay from Victor Harbor to Goolwa. Liberal MP David Basham has a background as a local dairy farmer and has been member for Finniss since 2018. He only narrowly survived the 2022 election, beaten on the day by Independent Lou Nicholson but re-elected after pre-poll votes flipped the result. Nicholson serves on local Alexandrina Council and returns for a second attempt to win the seat.

Hammond (LIB 5.1%) is dominated by the descriptively named regional city of Murray Bridge. It also includes Strathalbyn and Langhorne Creek. Adrian Pederick has represented Hammond since 2006 when he succeeded the long serving Peter Lewis. Pederick could have been defeated in 2022 had Independent challenger Airlie Keen not slipped to third with the counting of declaration votes. Keen has served on Murray Bridge council since 2014, is a former FIFA international referee, and returns as a candidate in 2026. Her chances of victory may be limited by Labor mounting a serious challenge on behalf of Mid-Murray Mayor Simone Bailey.

Further Afield

If One Nation is going to elect members, then seats distant from Adelaide are the best prospects. The main impediment will be that several of its targets have high profile Independet MPs and candidates. In many of these Labor may finish third and have its preferences distributed. Labor’s preferences will favour Independents and Liberal candidates ahead of One Nation.

Narungga (IND 8.1% v LIB) is a Yorke peninsula based seat held by Independent MP Fraser Ellis. Elected as a Liberal in 2018, he was disendorsed after the parliamentary allowances scandal and re-elected as an Independent in 2022. The Liberal candidate in 2026 is 12 year Yorke Peninsula Councillor Tania Stock. One Nation has been campaigning hard with its candidate Chantelle Thomas who currently works as a photographer and make-up artist.

Stuart (IND 14.1% v LIB) runs north from Port Pirie and is a vast outback seat covering around half of the state, stretching to the state’s eastern, northern and western borders. The sitting MP since 2022 is Independent Geoff Brock. Brock first entered state parliament at a 2009 by-election in Frome, a seat that at the time included his political base in Port Pirie. When Port Pirie was moved into Stuart for the 2022 election, Brock contested and won Stuart, defeating then Liberal Deputy Premier Dan van Holst Pellakaan. Brock’s 2026 Liberal opponent is Leon Stephens who has been Mayor of Port Pirie since 2018.

Flinders (3.0% v IND) has always been a conservative seat. Liberal Sam Telfer was first elected in 2022, run a close race by Independent Liz Habermann. She is not a candidate in 2026, but new Independent Meghan Petherick is considered a strong challenger to the Liberal grip on this seat.

Ngadjuri (LIB 3.2%) is the new name for the former seat of Frome. It was first won by MP Panny Pratt in 2022, winning after Geoff Brock’s switch to contest Stuart. Ngadjuri is contested by a second MP in Labor’s Tony Piccolo, member for neighbouring Light since 2006. Piccolo’s shift came about after some suburbs of Gawler were transferred from Light to Ngadjuri in the most recent redistribution. That change has slashed the Liberal margin from 8.1% to 3.2%. One of the key contests at the 2026 election.

Chaffey (LIB 17.2%) Tim Whetstone has represented this Riverland based seat since 2010. His major opponent in 2026 is One Nation’s Jenny Troeth.

MacKillop (LIB 22.6%) is an interesting contest. Nick McBride was elected as a Liberal in 2018 and 2022, but resigned from the party in 2023 as a in protest at what he called ‘dark forces’ in the Liberal Party. He is trying to campaign while under a home detention order after being charged with aggravated assault against his wife. His Liberal opponent is Robe small business owner Rebekah Rosser. The One Nation candidate is Mount Gambier Councillor Jason Virgo. Labor’s candidate Mark Braes contested this seat in 2022 and the local federal seat of Barker in 2022.

Mount Gambier (LIB 13.8%) is vacant following the fraud conviction and jailing of former Independent MP Troy Bell. His former staff member Travis Fatchen is campaigning to succeed Bell, his Liberal opponent being farmer and logistics worker Lamorna Alexander.

Giles (ALP 19.7%) is the last of the great regional seats and the only one held by Labor. It is dominated by the steel town of Whyalla and the industrial and transport hub of Port Augusta. His opponents are Liberal and Port Augusta Councillor Sunny Singh, and Whyalla furnaceman Barry Drage.