SA Black By-election plus Updates on 2024 Queensland Election Count

A quick post highlighting a new ABC Elections guide page by me for the Black by-election, plus an explainer on how the count is unfolding for the Queensland election. Details inside the post.

Black By-election

A guide page for the Black by-election can be found on the ABC Elections site. I’ll be running a results service at that link on the night of the by-election, Saturday 16 November.

The by-election has been caused by the departure of former Liberal Leader David Speirs. Under pressure inside the party, Speirs resigned as Liberal Leader in August. The following month a video emerged suggesting drug use by Speirs. He resigned from Parliament after being charged by police. More details on the circumstances around the by-election can be found on the guide page.

Black is in Adelaide’s southern coastal suburbs and has Liberal margin of just 2.7%. The concern for the Liberal Party at the by-election is that Speirs is viewed as having had significant personal vote at the last two state elections. The Liberal Party has already lost one by-election this term with Labor gaining Dunstan in March following the retirement of former Premier Steven Marshall.

Four candidates have nominated for the by-election to be held on 16 November. More details and a results service on the night here.

Queensland Election Result Updates

I’m continuing to curate result updates on the ABC Queensland Election Results website. Counting resumes on Monday.

First, let’s be clear that while the election was not the landslide many had expected before the campaign, the LNP has still won a substantial victory. It has achieeved a two-party preferred swing of 7% and is estimated to poll 53.8% of the state-wide two-party preferred vote. The LNP has gained at least 16 seats, maybe as high as 18, including taking 10 seats from Labor in the regional cities along Queensland’s coast.

The Electoral Commission Queensland (ECQ) has continued to update first preference results on its website and in the media feed, but stopped doing indicative preference counts on the Sunday after polling day. All results on the ECQ site and on the ABC site are updates for first preferences.

I kept details of preference flows from election night to re-build the preference tables in the ABC’s election computer. The ABC website continues to provide preference estimates for each seat based on the updated first preference tallies and using the preference flow data from election night.

It is important to stress, especially for close seats, that the two-party counts on the ABC site are estimates, not actual counts. The cut-off date for the return of postal votes is Tuesday. All first preference counts will be finalised quickly on Wednesday morning before the formal distribution of preferences is completed for each seat. All pages on the ABC website will automatically be updated with final preference counts as released.

A few notes on specific seats.

I have left Mulgrave in doubt because while the released preference count from the ECQ indicates a clear LNP win, it remains unclear whether the Katter’s Australian Party can pass Labor to reach second place. If that were to occur, there is a good chance the KAP candidate Steve Lesina could win on Labor preferences. I have received no clear scrutineer information on the Mulgrave count so will leave the seat in doubt.

In Aspley, the LNP’s Amanda Cooper leads Labor’s Bart Mellish by an estimated 98 votes. Again, I need to stress this is an estimate based on election night preferences flows. Those flows may have changed with further counting. Counting on Monday and Tuesday will add the small number of outstanding votes, followed by the full distribution of preferences beginning on Wednesday to determine the winner. Expect that count to be heavily scrutineered and slow. The result in Aspley could be close enough to trigger an automatic re-count.

In South Brisbane doubt remains over whether the Labor or LNP candidates will finish second behind the Greens on first preferences. If Labor finishes second, Labor wins on LNP preferences. If the LNP reaches second place then Labor is excluded and the Greens will win on Labor preferences..

Two factors are playing a part in determining who finishes second. The first as a normal trend to the LNP on the counting of postal votes. This trend is now factored into the results and further narrowing is not expected.

The second factor is preferences from the fourth placed One Nation candidate. These could push the LNP ahead of Labor, but at this stage the flows don’t appear to be strong enough. Scrutineer information I’ve been provided with suggests two-thirds of One Nation preferences flow to the LNP. At this stage the gain rate for the LNP over Labor is 0.5, not enough to close the current gap.

But South Brisbane won’t be clear until One Nation is excluded as the first stage of the formal distribution of preferences.