The Liberal National Party (LNP) led by new Premier David Crisafulli won the Queensland election on 26 October, a result that had been widely expected for more than a year.
The Labor Party under Premier Steven Miles, who had replaced long-serving Annastacia Palaszczuk the previous December, managed to limit the scale of its defeat compared to predictions of a landslide based on polls published earlier in the year.
But the result was a still a comfortable victory for the LNP and clear defeat for Labor. The two parties virtually exchanged places in seats and votes compared to Labor’s last election victory under Annastacia Palaszczuk.
In 2020 Labor won 52 seats with 53.2% of the two-party preferred vote with the LNP winning 34 seats. In 2024 it was the LNP winning 52 seas on a slightly higher 53.8% of the two-party preferred vote, while Labor finished on 36 seats.
The new government has 16 more seats than Labor and a majority of 11 over all other parties in the new Legislative Assembly. That would be at risk if the LNP suffered the same reverses as it did under Campbell Newman between 2012 and 2015, five members lost in total to defections and by-elections. But the smaller number of ‘accidental’ MPs elected compared to 2012, plus the need to keep the team together with a smaller majority, should give greater focus to the new LNP party room.
The LNP gained 18 seats on a state-wide swing of 7.0%, exactly the result you would have predicted applying a uniform swing of 7.0% to the pre-election pendulum. As usually occurs with pendulums, some of the seats on small margins retained by Labor were cancelled out by the LNP achieving larger swings in some safer Labor seats. Especially in the state’s regional cities.
The state-wide swing masks a big difference between the swing in Greater Brisbane compared to regional cities along the Queensland coast.
I’ve prepared a summary of the results which you can find at this link.
The summary includes two-party preferred analysis of seats and by region, including estimated two-party results for electorates that did not finish as Labor-LNP contests. There’s also a summary of results by region and details of new and departing members by electorate.
Inside this post I’ll augment the results document linked above with some commentary.
State-wide Votes by Party
The table below summarises the first preference votes and seats won by party, along with columns showing change since 2020. An estimated state-wide two-party preferred result and swing is also included. Details of how two-party counts have been estimated for seats that did not finish as Labor-LNP contests can be found in the summary document I linked earlier in this post.
| Party (Candidates) | Votes | % Votes | Change | Seats Won | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal National Party (93) | 1,289,535 | 41.52 | +5.63 | 52 | +18 |
| Australian Labor Party (93) | 1,011,211 | 32.56 | -7.01 | 36 | -16 |
| The Greens (93) | 307,178 | 9.89 | +0.42 | 1 | -1 |
| One Nation (93) | 248,334 | 8.00 | +0.87 | .. | -1 |
| Katter’s Australian Party (11) | 75,773 | 2.44 | -0.08 | 3 | .. |
| Family First (59) | 57,826 | 1.86 | +1.86 | .. | .. |
| Independents (38) | 52,657 | 1.70 | -0.78 | 1 | .. |
| Legalise Cannabis (29) | 49,621 | 1.60 | +0.69 | .. | .. |
| Animal Justice (12) | 9,669 | 0.31 | -0.03 | .. | .. |
| Libertarian (4) | 4,141 | 0.13 | +0.13 | .. | .. |
| Other Parties | 0 | 0.00 | -1.71 | .. | .. |
| Formal (525) | 3,105,945 | 96.1 | -0.50 | 93 | |
| Informal | 126,023 | 3.90 | +0.50 | ||
| Total | 3,231,968 | 87.74 | -0.17 | ||
| Enrolment | 3,683,368 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Two-Party Preferred Estimate | |||||
| Liberal National Party | 1,669,799 | 53.76 | +6.92 | ||
| Australian Labor Party | 1,436,146 | 46.24 | 0.00 | ||
Compared to the 2015 election when the Newman government lost office, the LNP’s first preference support was up only 0.2%, but Labor’s vote was down 5%. In two-party preferred terms LNP support was up 4.9% compared to 2015, with the caveat that the 2015 election was conducted under optional preferential voting.
The combined major party first preference vote of 74.1% was the third lowest since 1960. In 2017 the combined vote was 69.1% with One Nation polling 13.7%, and in 1998 it was 70.2% with One Nation polling 22.7%. Green support was slightly down on 10.0% polled in 2017 but slightly up on the 2020 result.
The table below sets out the seats gained by the LNP from Labor and lists the name of the departing and newly elected members. The table also shows the swing against Labor, to the LNP. The seats are ordered north to south to highlight the variation in swing across the state.
| Electorate | Swing to LNP | Former Labor Member | New LNP Member |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook | 11.2 | Cynthia Lui | David Kempton |
| Barron River | 6.8 | Craig Crawford | Bree James |
| Mulgrave | 15.4 | Curtis Pitt (retired) | Terry James |
| Townsville | 8.7 | Scott Stewart | Adam Baillie |
| Thuringowa | 13.2 | Aaron Harper | Natalie Marr |
| Mundingburra | 13.3 | Les Walker | Janelle Poole |
| Mackay | 17.2 | Julieanne Gilbert (retired) | Nigel Dalton |
| Keppel | 16.1 | Brittany Lauga | Nigel Hutton |
| Rockhampton | 10.4 | Barry O’Rourke (retired) | Donna Kirkland |
| Hervey Bay | 10.4 | Adrian Tantari | David Lee |
| Maryborough | 14.6 | Bruce Saunders | John Barounis |
| Nicklin | 2.8 | Rob Skelton | Marty Hunt |
| Caloundra | 4.3 | Jason Hunt | Kendall Morton |
| Pumicestone | 5.7 | Ali King | Ariana Doolan |
| Redcliffe | 9.0 | Yvette D’Ath (retired) | Kerri-Anne Dooley |
| Capalaba | 11.7 | Don Brown | Russell Field |
| Redlands | 5.8 | Kim Richards | Rebecca Young |
Three other seats also changed party. In Mirani, former One Nation MLA Stephen Andrew sought re-election as a Katter’s Australian Party candidate. He was defeated by the LNP’s Glen Kelly. In South Brisbane, Greens MLA Amy MacMahon was defeated by Labor’s Barbara O’Shea. The details of that count are set out down the page in the secion on Labor-Greens contests.
After winning the Ipswich West by-election in March, a developing health issue meant the LNP’s Darren Zanow did not contest the election. The seat was gained by Labor’s Wendy Bourne, the defeated Labor candidate from the by-election.
Variation in Swing
In my election preview, I wrote the following
“Labor has dominated the numbers in Greater Brisbane since winning government in 1989, but apart from a golden decade under Peter Beattie, has only captured fleeting beachheads on the Gold and Sunshine Coasts.”
“For all Labor’s strength in Greater Brisbane, its failure to win seats on the two coasts means there are not enough seats in south-east Queensland alone to deliver majority Labor government. Labor must also win a healthy number of seats in Queensland’s regional cities.”
“Or to look at it from the LNP’s perspective, the path to government relies on beating Labor in regional cities, and/or making breakthroughs in Greater Brisbane. Despite the LNP’s dominance of Brisbane City Council since 2008, only in 2012 has the LNP replicated its Brisbane City Council results at a state election.”
The 2024 results reveal that the LNP performed above expectations in regional seats, but under-performed in Greater Brisbane.
The two-party preferred swing against Labor grew as you moved away from Brisbane. It was 4.6% to the LNP in Brisbane City Council, 7.2% in the four city councils that surround Brisbane, 7.5% on the Gold Coast but a smaller 3.7% on the Sunshine Coast. Overall, the swing in south-east Queensland was 5.9% against Labor, but 9.3% in the rest of the state. The swing was 10.1% in North Queensland, 12.0% in Central Queensland.
Before the election the 10 seats in North Queensland split seven Labor and three KAP. The LNP gained six seats leaving Labor with only Cairns. Where Labor held 12 of the 14 seats defined as Regional City seats before the election, after the election it held only three, Cairns, Gladstone and quite remarkably Bundaberg.
Having won Bundaberg by just nine votes in 2020, Labor MLA Tom Smith produced the most surprising result of the election, increasing his majority to 963 votes, gaining a swing in his favour of 1.5%. It was one of only three seats in the state to record a swing towards Labor.
Labor lost two foundational seats in Mackay after a swing of 16.9%, and Rockhampton 10.4%. The sitting members for both seats retired, as did Curtis Pitt in Mulgrave, lost by Labor after a swing of 14.9%. Cook was lost for only the third time in half a century on a swing of 10.2%, and Keppel fell to a 16.1% swing. Maryborough was lost on a swing of 14.7%, though the Labor margin was inflated by the popularity of sitting MLA Bruce Saunders.
As expected, Labor could not hold its 2020 surprise gains in Caloundra, Nicklin and Hervey Bay. Labor did win back Ipswich West, lost at a March 2024 by-election, but recovered at the 2024 state election despite a 10.4% swing to the LNP since 2020.
The LNP’s best result in Greater Brisbane was capturing Capalaba on a swing of 11.7%, the perception from those in the know that Labor MLA Don brown may have underestimated the threat from LNP candidate and anti-crime campaigner Russell Field. Nearby Redlands was a more expected LNP gain, the seat being a traditional bellwether of LNP fortunes in Greater Brisbane.
In Moreton Bay, the LNP gained Pumicestone on a 5.7% swing, the fifth election in a row where the seat has changed party. It brings into parliament a new LNP member in 22-year Ariana Doolan, the youngest female MP in the state’s history.
Nearby Redcliffe fell on a 9% swing with the retirement of Yvette D’Ath after 15 years representing the area at both state and federal level. New LNP MLA Kerri-Anne Dooley proved the importance of persistence, winning Redcliffe at her sixth attempt.
Two new members have previous parliamentary experience. New Cook MLA David Kempton previously represented the seat between 2012 and 2015 during the Newman government. Nw Oodgeroo MLA Amanda Stoker has shifted to state politics having previously served in the Senate.
The Brisbane Line
Again from my election preview, I wrote that “Labor has achieved majority government at every election since 1992 where the party won 34 or more of the seats in Greater Brisbane. Labor won 33 seats for minority government in 1998, 31 to eventually lose government in 1995, 30 for minority government in 2015, and 35 seats to win a small parliamentary majority in 2017.”
In 2024 Labor has retained 32 seats, on par or slightly better than its performance at close elections in 1995, 1998 and 2015. That Labor performed much worse overall in 2024 than at those earlier elections is down to a poorer performance in regional city seats in North Queensland.
Two former Brisbane City Councillors attempted to win state seats that overlapped with their council wards. Neither was successful, Amanda Cooper failing at her second attempt to defeat Bart Mellish in Aspley, while Fiona Hammond failed to defeat Jimmy Sullivan in Stafford less than a year after retiring from Council.
Labor versus the Greens
Before the election there was talk that several inner-Brisbane seats were under threat from the Greens. In the end Labor retained all the seats thought under threat, and also recovered South Brisbane.
With the exception of South Brisbane, prospects for Greens victories in inner-Brisbane rely on having a higher primary vote than Labor at the point when only three candidates remain in the count, converting a Labor-LNP finish into a Greens-LNP contest. That was how the Greens won the Federal seats of Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan at the 2022 Federal election.
The table below is drawn from preference distribution data published by the ECQ. The percentages shown are from the point where only three candidates remain in the count after the exclusion of all other candidates. the ‘Change’ column shows the percentage difference between these three-way percentages at the 2020 and 2024 elections. Seats are ordered in descending Green percentage vote order.
| LNP | Labor | Greens | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electorate | % Vote | Change | % Vote | Change | % Vote | Change |
| South Brisbane | 32.2 | +7.3 | 32.5 | -3.1 | 35.3 | -4.2 |
| Maiwar | 40.1 | +1.3 | 25.6 | +6.5 | 34.4 | -7.7 |
| Greenslopes | 36.5 | +3.3 | 36.4 | -5.8 | 27.1 | +2.5 |
| McConnel | 37.8 | +4.7 | 36.1 | -0.6 | 26.1 | -4.2 |
| Cooper | 36.4 | +1.5 | 37.7 | +3.1 | 25.9 | -4.6 |
| Miller | 36.5 | +3.5 | 38.7 | -5.2 | 24.8 | +1.7 |
| Moggill | 52.0 | +2.7 | 26.8 | -2.4 | 21.1 | -0.4 |
| Ferny Grove | 39.1 | +3.0 | 40.6 | -6.6 | 20.2 | +3.5 |
| Toohey | 37.8 | +5.1 | 42.8 | -9.6 | 19.5 | +4.7 |
| Stafford | 41.1 | +6.6 | 39.7 | -7.5 | 19.2 | +0.9 |
| Clayfield | 50.9 | +2.7 | 30.4 | -2.8 | 18.7 | +0.1 |
| Bulimba | 39.2 | +3.2 | 43.2 | -6.2 | 17.6 | +3.0 |
A ‘swing’ based on three-candidate counts for the Greens to pass Labor in Cooper rose from 2.1% in 2020 to 5.9% in 2024, in McConnel from 3.2% to 5.0%, but declined from 8.8% to 4.7% in Greenslopes and 10.4% to 7.0% in Miller. Labor also improved its position compared to the Greens in both Maiwar and South Brisbane, though Labor’s victory in South Brisbane had little to with the relative standing of the two parties.
Unlike the other contests, South Brisbane is a seat where the LNP tends to finish third and it is LNP preferences that determine the winner. In 2020 the LNP recommended preferences for the Greens ahead of Labor and election night preference flows showed 67.8% of LNP voters followed the recommendation. In 2024 the LNP recommended preferences for Labor and published flow data showed 76.0% of LNP voters following that recommendation for Labor. Had the 2020 flows applied, the Greens would have retained South Brisbane.
But the improved LNP vote in South Brisbane almost prevented Labor winning. After the distribution of One Nation preferences, Labor’s Barbara O’Shea led the LNP’s Marita Parkinson by only 105 votes. LNP preferences then elected O’Shea, but had Labor slipped to third, Labor preferences would have re-elected Greens MLA Amy MacMahon.
The Swing Next Time
With 36 seats, Labor would need a uniform swing of 3.7% to gain 11 seats and win the 2028 state election. The 11th seat is Barron River, a seat that has been the classic bellwether seat, going with government at every election since 1974.
Labor polled 46.2% of the two-party preferred vote so a 3.7% swing would bring the state close to a 50:50 result, a measure that is often used as a test of whether electoral boundaries are fair.
There will be a redistribution before the next election which is likely to move another seat to south-east Queensland. On the 2024 results both Labor and the LNP hold five seats on margins under 2%, but all margins will be scrambled by the redistribution.
A pendulum based on the final results can be found in the summary of the results I linked to at the start of this post.
Vote by Type
(I published the detail on vote by type in an earlier post but thought it worth repeating here. When I get chance I will return to the data and update it with the final counts. There’s more information on the impact of pre-poll swing in the earlier post linked below.)
In a post I published before the election, I pointed out that the result on election night would not be clear until we started to receive results from Early Vote Centres. Whatever the split of votes between Labor and the LNP early in the evening, it would shift if the swing on Early votes was significantly different to polling day votes. Given the LNP’s lead in opinion polls had narrowed through the campaign, it was entirely possible that Labor would perform less well with Early votes compared to election day, which meant any swing against Labor would increase as the night wore on.
And so it proved to be. Early on election night it appeared the swing was in the range 4-5%, but once pre-poll votes arrived the swing rose above 7%.
The table below breaks down two-party preferred vote by type in 2024 compared to 2020. The totals for Early votes include only within district Early Votes, and the Postal Vote total includes only votes received by and counted on Saturday night.
| 2020 Two-Party Vote | 2024 Two-Party Vote | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Labor % | LNP % | Labor % | LNP % | Swing |
| Polling Day | 55.5 | 44.5 | 50.6 | 49.4 | -4.9 |
| Early Votes | 52.4 | 47.6 | 43.8 | 56.2 | -8.6 |
| Postal | 51.3 | 48.7 | 41.0 | 59.0 | -10.3 |
Preference Flows
(This section is also duplicated from my earlier post.)
The table below summarise preference flows of minor parties at the 2024 election compared to 2020. For the Greens and One Nation I have included both a total flow and average flow per electorate to account for the higher flow that often occurs in seats where a party gets its highest vote. The table excludes districts that did not finish as two-party preferred contests.
| 2020 Preferences to | 2024 Preferences to | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Labor % | LNP % | Labor % | LNP % |
| Greens – total flow | 80.1 | 19.9 | 80.7 | 19.3 |
| Greens – average flow | 77.4 | 22.6 | 78.1 | 19.3 |
| One Nation – total flow | 33.8 | 66.2 | 26.2 | 73.8 |
| One Nation – average flow | 33.0 | 67.0 | 26.4 | 73.6 |
| Family First | .. | .. | 37.7 | 62.6 |
| Katter’s Australian Party | 42.1 | 57.9 | 31.6 | 68.4 |
| Legalise Cannabis | 58.2 | 41.8 | 58.7 | 41.3 |
| Animal Justice | 61.8 | 38.2 | 56.4 | 43.6 |
The main point to note in the above table is that One Nation flows were consistently higher to the LNP than in 2020, and the LNP also benefited from the return of Family First.
From 1998 to 2016 One Nation preferences tended to be a variable feast. It is only since the 2017 Queensland and 2019 Federal elections that One Nation preferences have begun to consistently favour the LNP.
Katter’s Australian Party preferences also favoured the LNP more in 2024, mainly due to the party moving from open tickets to recommending preferences for the LNP in the three Townsville seats. In Mundingburra KAP preferences to the LNP increased from 57.0% in 2020 to 73.5% in 2024, in Thuringowa from 50.7% to 73.3%, and in Townsville from 56.2% to 64.5%.
The flow of LNP preferences in South Brisbane demonstrate the power of major party how-to-votes. In 2020 the LNP recommended preferences for the Greens in South Brisbane and 67.8% of LNP voters followed the recommendation and gave preferences to the Greens. In 2024 the party reversed its recommendation and 76.0% of LNP voters preferenced Labor ahead of the Greens.
Antony, great work as usual! However, on your PDF pg. 5 (LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY: ELECTORATES RANKED BY NEW MARGINS) you have the Greens new margin in Maiwar as 3.4% against the ALP – shouldn’t that be against the LNP?
COMMENT: Fixed
Hi Antony. Fantastic to read your work on the 2024 Queensland election. No doubt it is on your radar that the Queensland Redstribution Commission will be publishing new draft boundaries in “early 2026”. It would be great if you had time to provide your thoughts when the drafts become available.
COMMENT: I probably won’t be able to do the Queensland draft boundaries as I have some other projects to work on at the moment. There’s a lot of set-up to arrange for state redistribution calculations do not as easy as Federal redistribution. I’ll look at it come the final stage.