A total of 525 candidates have nominated for the 2024 Queensland, second only to 597 in 2020 as the most candidates to contest a Queensland election.
The Labor Party, LNP, Greens and One Nation have nominated for every electorates, followed by Family First with 59 candidates and Legalise Cannabis 29. Full breakdown by party inside the post.
More to come and I will also post a link here when I have all candidates posted on the ABC website.
There are 10 electorates with four candidates, 38 with five, 28 with six, 12 with seven, three with eight and one with nine and one with 10.
A total of 10 candidates have nominated for Mulgrave where Labor's Curtis Pitt is retiring. There are nine candidates in the Premier's seat of Murrumba, and eight in Bundamba, Burleigh and Nanango. The 10 electorates with only four candidates are Capalaba, Everton, Ferny Grove, Gympie, Kawana, Maiwar, Moggill, Oodgeroo, South Brisbane and Toohey.
| Party | 2024 | Change | 2020 | 2017 | 2015 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australian Labor Party | 93 | .. | 93 | 93 | 89 | 89 |
| Liberal National Party | 93 | .. | 93 | 93 | 89 | 89 |
| The Greens | 93 | .. | 93 | 93 | 89 | 89 |
| One Nation | 93 | +3 | 90 | 61 | 11 | 6 |
| Family First | 59 | +59 | .. | .. | 28 | 38 |
| Independents/Unaffiliated | 38 | -31 | 69 | 88 | 66 | 43 |
| Legalise Cannabis | 29 | +6 | 23 | .. | 0 | 0 |
| Katter's Australian Party | 11 | -2 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 76 |
| Animal Justice Party | 12 | -1 | 13 | 7 | .. | .. |
| Libertarian Party | 4 | +4 | 0 | .. | .. | .. |
| UAP/PUP | .. | -55 | 55 | .. | 50 | .. |
| Informed Medical Options | .. | -31 | 31 | .. | .. | .. |
| Other Parties | .. | -24 | 24 | 8 | .. | .. |
| Total Candidates | 525 | -72 | 597 | 453 | 433 | 430 |
| Average per Seat | 5.6 | -0.8 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
Would a change to Optional Preferential Voting (as proposed by the LNP Leader) change results in seats with a higher than average first preference for PHON or KAP?
COMMENT: I’m not sure what you are asking. What optional preferential voting does is effectively increase the importance of first preferences. By diminishing the pool of ballot papers for excluded candidates with further preferences, it reduces the chances of second placed candidates coming from behind to win. It doesn’t prevent candidates coming from behind to win on preferences, but it increases the chances that a candidate leading on first preferences will maintain that lead through the distribution of preferences.
Despite widespread commentary that the LNP will win the next state election overall, will the labour party take the seat of South Brisbane back from the greens given the switch of preferences by the liberal party from the greens in 2020 to labour and in 2024?
The numbers seem to show it will.
Comment?
Theo
West End