Proposed Federal Boundaries Released for Victoria

The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) will release draft electoral boundaries for Victoria today, the time set as some time between 12:30 and 2:30. Victoria will be losing a seat in the redistribution, the number of members to be elected reduced from 39 to 38 seats.

Once the draft boundaries are released I’ll give a brief comment on which seat has been abolished, but it will take time and some serious number crunching to work out the full consequences of the new boundaries.

Update 7pm Friday After fixing problems with a changed numbering system for SA1s, I’ve tidied all the estimates. The summary is that the Labor seat of Higgins is abolished but the Liberal seat of Menzies becomes a marginal Labor seat. The Liberal seat of Deakin is weakened for the Liberal Party and Wills is weakened for Labor in a contest versus the Greens.

The Greens versus Labor margin for Melbourne is not right but I don’t have time work out the problem tonight. A better estimated margin has now been calculated for Melbourne. Other independent contests now have better estimated margins.

** Sunday update on Kooyong The re-drawn seat of Kooyong includes around 30,000 voters from the abolished seat of Higgins. This is around a quarter of the voters in the re-drawn Kooyong. This is an area where Independent Monique Ryan was not on the ballot paper in 2022 and if you do a straight vote transfer and then apply preferences, you get an Independent v Liberal margin of 0.8%, down from 2.9%. This is not a realistic margin as clearly Monique Ryan will attract votes in the area added from Higgins.

Compared to the 2022 Liberal 2PP margin versus Labor, the new boundaries produces a slight dip in the Liberal margin versus Labor. I suspect that movement slightly improves Ryan’s margin versus the Liberal Party, but there is no way to calculate a margin without coming up with an estimate of how Ryan will poll in the transferred parts of Higgins where she was not on the ballot paper in 2022.

I’ve removed my earlier margin from the table below because it is being quoted as suggesting the Liberal position in Kooyong has been significantly improved. That is not my opinion.

** Sunday update on Goldstein I’ve removed the estimated Independent margin for Goldstein for the same reasons. Transferring votes and re-calculating preferences gives a new Independent v Liberal margin of 2.7%, down from 2.9% on the old boundaries. The changes to Goldstein are smaller than for Kooyong. The Liberal 2PP margin dips on the new boundaries and I think the same may apply to the Independent versus Liberal margin.

Change in Seat Numbers

The table below of seats held by party will be updated during my various parses of the data.

Change in Seats Held by Party
ALP LIB NAT GRN IND Total
Old boundaries 24 8 3 1 3 39
New boundaries 24 7 3 1 3 38
With by-elections 25 6 3 1 3 38

Note: By-election line takes account of Labor winning Aston from the Liberal Party at an April 2023 by-election. Table does not take account of the decision by Monash MHR Russell Broadbent to resign from the Liberal Party and become an Independent.

Based on the two-party preferred results, including the underlying Labor-Coalition nature of Independent and Greens held seat, the changes in two-party preferred holdings are –

  • Old Boundaries 2PP: Labor 25, Coalition 14 (Liberal 11, National 3)
  • New Boundaries 2PP: Labor 25, Coalition 13 (Liberal 10, National 3)
  • Including by-elections: Labor 26, Coalition 12 (Liberal 9, National 3)

Seat tables can be found inside the post.

Summary of Federal Redistribution in Victoria
Division Old Margin New Margin Change Member
Aston LIB 2.8%
ALP 3.6% (by)
LIB 2.6%
ALP 3.6% (by)
0.2% to ALP Mary Doyle (Labor)
Ballarat ALP 13.0% ALP 13.0% .. Catherine King (Labor)
Bendigo ALP 12.1% ALP 12.1% .. Lisa Chesters (Labor)
Bruce ALP 6.6% ALP 5.5% 1.1% to L/NP Julian Hill (Labor)
Calwell ALP 12.4% ALP 12.4% .. Maria Vamvakinou (Labor)
Casey LIB 1.5% LIB 1.4% .. Aaron Violi (Liberal)
Chisholm ALP 6.4% ALP 3.2% 3.2% to L/NP Carina Garland (Labor)
Cooper ALP 25.5% 2PP
ALP 8.7% v GRN
ALP 25.7% 2PP
ALP 7.8% v GRN
0.2% to ALP Ged Kearney (Labor)
Corangamite ALP 7.6% ALP 7.8% 0.2% to ALP Libby Coker (Labor)
Corio ALP 12.8% ALP 12.5% 0.4% to L/NP Richard Marles (Labor)
Deakin LIB 0.2% LIB 0.0% 0.2% to ALP Michael Sukkar (Liberal)
Dunkley ALP 6.3%
ALP 2.7% (by)
ALP 6.8%
ALP 2.7% (by)
0.5% to ALP Jodi Belyea (Labor)
Flinders LIB 6.7% LIB 6.2% 0.5% to ALP Zoe McKenzie (Liberal)
Fraser ALP 16.5% ALP 16.6% 0.1% to ALP Daniel Mulino (Labor)
Gellibrand ALP 11.5% ALP 11.2% 0.4% to L/NP Tim Watts (Labor)
Gippsland NAT 20.6% NAT 20.6% .. Darren Chester (National)
Goldstein LIB 4.8% 2PP
IND 2.9% v LIB
LIB 3.9% 2PP
** see note above
0.9% to ALP Zoe Daniel (Independent)
Gorton ALP 10.0% ALP 10.0% .. Brendan O’Connor (Labor)
Hawke ALP 7.6% ALP 7.6% .. Sam Rae (Labor)
Higgins ALP 2.1% Abolished .. Michelle Ananda-Rajah (Labor)
Holt ALP 7.1% ALP 7.1% .. Cassandra Fernando (Labor)
Hotham ALP 14.3% ALP 11.6% 2.6% to L/NP Clare O’Neil (Labor)
Indi LIB 5.3% 2PP
IND 8.9% v LIB
LIB 5.3% 2PP
IND 8.9% v LIB
.. Helen Haines (Independent)
Isaacs ALP 6.9% ALP 9.4% 2.6% to ALP Mark Dreyfus (Labor)
Jagajaga ALP 12.3% ALP 12.2% 0.1% to L/NP Kate Thwaites (Labor)
Kooyong LIB 4.2% 2PP
IND 2.9% v LIB
LIB 3.7% 2PP
** See note above
0.4% to ALP Monique Ryan (Independent)
La Trobe LIB 8.7% LIB 8.4% 0.2% to ALP Jason Wood (Liberal)
Lalor ALP 12.8% ALP 12.8% .. Joanne Ryan (Labor)
Macnamara ALP 12.2% ALP 12.2% 0.1% to L/NP Josh Burns (Labor)
Mallee NAT 19.0% NAT 19.0% .. Anne Webster (National)
Maribyrnong ALP 12.4% ALP 12.5% 0.1% to ALP Bill Shorten (Labor)
McEwen ALP 3.3% ALP 3.3% .. Rob Mitchell (Labor)
Melbourne ALP 27.9% 2PP
GRN 10.2% v ALP
ALP 23.1% 2PP
GRN 6.6% v ALP
4.8% to L/NP Adam Bandt (Greens)
Menzies LIB 0.7% ALP 0.5% 1.2% to ALP Keith Wolahan (Liberal)
Monash LIB 2.9% LIB 2.9% .. Russell Broadbent (IND/ex-Liberal)
Nicholls NAT 17.1%
NAT 3.8% v IND
NAT 15.9%
NAT 3.6% v IND
1.2% to ALP Sam Birrell (National)
Scullin ALP 15.6% ALP 15.6% .. Andrew Giles (Labor)
Wannon LIB 9.1% 2PP
LIB 3.9% v IND
LIB 8.6% 2PP
LIB 3.8% v IND
0.5% to ALP Dan Tehan (Liberal)
Wills ALP 25.8% 2PP
ALP 8.6% v GRN
ALP 26.7% 2PP
ALP 5.2% v GRN
0.9% to ALP Peter Khalil (Labor)

7 thoughts on “Proposed Federal Boundaries Released for Victoria”

  1. Wow, Wills has changed. how certain are you about that 2% figure? I can see how that would happen though, with Brunswick East, Fitzroy North. It would mean a lot for the Greens if it were that close, surely. Thanks for the coverage.

    COMMENT: Check the latest updates. There were lots of changes to SA1 numbers that I had to resolve.

  2. Hi Antony, I’m curious around how Macnamara has ended up with a -1.2% Labor 2PP. I’ve looked at the areas being transferred and it’s gaining an area that had a much better Labor 2PP than the area it has lost, based on the polling day results.

    Fawkner Park (Macnamara) had a 66% Labor 2PP, while Windsor (Higgins) and Prahran East, both within Higgins, had 77% and 71% Labor 2PPs respectively. That would indicate that Labor’s 2PP should increase, not decrease.

    Now, I know postal and early votes have to be factored in too. So this is where I’m curious around how that was calculated. I’m assuming, just say in Windsor the polling day result was applied to 2,000 electors and the early/postal results to the other 3,500 or so; surely Higgins’ overall early/postal results couldn’t be applied to those 3,500 voters because it wouldn’t be representative at all of the differences across the seat.

    Does it do any weighting? Say for example the polling day results in the Windsor booths were 15% better for Labor than the polling day results across Higgins overall; would the early/postal results being applied to those 3,500 Windsor voters also be given a +15% Labor adjustment, assuming that Windsor is 15% more Labor than Higgins overall? Or is it just Higgins’ overall rhad esult being applied?

    COMMENT: I’ve had thousands of SA1s to resolve and 64 electorates to calculate. Fixing SA1 numbers has produced a different figure for Macnamara. I have not looked in detail at any single electorate.

  3. Hi Antony,

    Given that these are proposed boundaries, what is the likelihood that there will be further changes following the submission of objections to the proposal? From a quick look at previous redistributions, it seems like the proposal is the same as the final redistribution.

    COMMENT: It would be very difficult to re-instate Higgins without making a mess of dozens of electorates. There will be tweaks but it is very difficult to undo an abolition.

  4. Are the sums for Wannon right?.
    Stronger for alp but weaker for the ind
    Who ended in the final count. I would suspect the liberal position against either ind or alp would both be weaker

    COMMENT: As with several of the Independent contest seats, it is difficult to calculate new margins for areas added to an electorate.

  5. Is the way to read these tables the 2PP figure on the left was last election and the one on the right is your forecast after redistribution? So for instance, Wills has gone from 8.6% to 5.2%? I ask because I read a media report suggesting Wills was now 2% and think the report was incorrect.

    COMMENT: One of the problems with redistributions is the media wants estimates at once which isn’t really possible. The 2% margin was my first estimate published within an hour. I could see immediately there was a problem with changes to ABS SA1 coding as the vote totals for Wills were several thousands of votes short. It took me several hours to resolve many hundreds of incorrect SA1 codings across both states and by the time I published the later estimate, most of the newspapers had gone to bed.

  6. No doubt you will come up with a solution to this, but the difficulty with assessing how the Independent seats like Goldstein and Kooyong will go at next election is that the proposed new booths will not have had the type of well resourced Independent running in them that Goldstein and Kooyong had in 2022. I wouldn’t think you could look at new Kooyong booth, for example, and say “it had a high Liberal vote last time and it will again” when it’s a completely different contest now.

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