With One Nation surging in the polls, the obvious question is – which seats can the party win.
The first cabs off the rank would be the seats where One Nation polled strongest in 2025.
There were only two seats where One Nation reached the final pairing of candidates after preferences, the Labor seat of Hunter in NSW, and Maranoa in Queensland held by National Party Leader David Littleproud.
In both seats the One Nation candidate finished third on first preferences but reached second place through preferences flowing from other right-of-centre parties. These included Family First, Trumpet of Patriots, Libertarians, Shooters Fishers and Farmers and Gerard Rennick’s People First.
Including Hunter and Maranoa, there were 26 seats overall where One Nation was one of the final three candidates during the distribution of preferences. This point of the count is commonly called the three-candidate preferred count (3CP).
Of these, 25 were Labor-Coalition-One Nation contests. A 26th seat was Indi, held by Independent Helen Haines. I’ve left Indi out of the analysis that follows as I would expect Haines to do well with preference flows from all other candidates in a contest versus One Nation.
There are many other seats beyond these 25 where One Nation’s poll surge will put the party into the three-candidate count. And some of these may be more winnable than those I list inside the post. In some of the seats I list, Burt being a good example, it may not be possible for One Nation to win given how strong Labor’s primary vote was in 2025.
Of the 25 seats I list, 12 are in Queensland, six in New South Wales, three in Victoria, two in WA and one each in South Australia and Tasmania.
Splitting the LNP into Liberal and National holdings, 12 of the seats are National held, seven Liberal held, and six held by Labor.
Two-thirds of the seats are outside the capital cities, the rest generally in outer parts of capitals.
The table is inside the post.
To explain the table –
- The state, electorate name and 2025 winning party are shown in the first three columns.
- The three-candidate preferred (3CP) percentages for Labor, the Liberal or National Party and for One Nation are shown in final three columns.
- The percentages in bold are the 3CP% counts for the winning candidate in each seat.
- The table has been sorted in ascending percentage vote order of winning candidates. So the electorates at the top of the table would be most at risk of being lost to One Nation as the seats have the lowest 3CP vote for the winning candidate.
Based on my experience covering elections where One Nation has polled well in the past, the seats listed in the table are where I would expect One Nation to poll well. That is especially the case for the top half of the table.
Of course, this table is just an example of where One Nation can win. If come the next election One Nation polls 25%, it will be sweeping up seats all across rural and regional Australia. And most of those seats are held by the National and Liberal Parties.
| Three-Candidate Preferred % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electorate | State | Held By | L/NP | ALP | ONP |
| Wright | QLD | LIB | 37.6 | 35.1 | 27.3 |
| Longman | QLD | LIB | 39.0 | 44.3 | 16.7 |
| Capricornia | QLD | NAT | 39.3 | 38.1 | 22.6 |
| Flynn | QLD | NAT | 41.4 | 33.1 | 25.5 |
| Hinkler | QLD | NAT | 41.9 | 37.5 | 20.6 |
| Wide Bay | QLD | NAT | 43.1 | 36.3 | 20.6 |
| Lindsay | NSW | LIB | 43.9 | 42.8 | 13.2 |
| Canning | WA | LIB | 45.1 | 39.1 | 15.7 |
| Fadden | QLD | LIB | 45.2 | 38.2 | 16.6 |
| Forde | QLD | ALP | 35.8 | 45.7 | 18.5 |
| Parkes | NSW | NAT | 46.8 | 28.9 | 24.3 |
| Dawson | QLD | NAT | 46.9 | 33.1 | 20.1 |
| Hume | NSW | LIB | 48.1 | 37.3 | 14.6 |
| Leichhardt | QLD | ALP | 31.6 | 49.1 | 19.3 |
| Blair | QLD | ALP | 31.3 | 49.2 | 19.5 |
| Riverina | NSW | NAT | 49.9 | 30.2 | 19.9 |
| Braddon | TAS | ALP | 34.9 | 50.5 | 14.6 |
| Nicholls | VIC | NAT | 50.9 | 31.9 | 17.2 |
| Barker | SA | LIB | 53.6 | 31.2 | 15.2 |
| Hunter | NSW | ALP | 22.3 | 54.6 | 23.1 |
| Gippsland | VIC | NAT | 55.4 | 28.1 | 16.4 |
| Mallee | VIC | NAT | 56.2 | 26.9 | 16.9 |
| New England | NSW | NAT | 56.2 | 29.0 | 14.8 |
| Maranoa | QLD | NAT | 57.7 | 21.1 | 21.3 |
| Burt | WA | ALP | 22.9 | 61.0 | 16.1 |
As the next Federal election is still over two years away, would be interesting to get a list of the State seats in SA, Victoria and NSW within these federal electorates. They might be the ones to watch over the next 13 months?
COMMENT: Given One Nation were already at 13% in SA in the last poll published in early December, the next poll could be horrific. Anything north of Adelaide or east of the Hills would be at rsik for the Liberals and that’s where all their seats are. The last poll was Labor 41%, Liberal 21%, Greens 12% and One Nation 13%. It could be one hell of a result.
Victoria could be less affected. One Nation has traditionally polled poorly in the state, and the more obvious targets are represented by the state Nationals who in general are a good grass roots party. None of the flashy stuff from up north. There was one federal election where they banned Barnaby Joyce from campaigning in Victoria. But with a 12 year-old government, One Nation could end up drawing strong support in odd parts of Melbourne given the Liberals seem incapable of campaigning north and west of the Yarra.
NSW look at everything west of the mountains. Potentially the north coast as well, and maybe a few outer bits of Sydney. Again, Nationals and Liberals would suffer most.
Antony, I think you mean David Littleproud in Maranoa, not Brian, in the third Para.
COMMENT: His father Brian was a Queensland state MP 1983-2001. People with long memories like me occasionally have name association problems.
If I’m reading the table correctly Hunter was the only seat where ONP finished above Lib or Nat on first preference and so it is the only seat where we can gauge how strong (disciplined) the preference flow was for Lib/Nat to ONP. I know it is only one seat and a lot has changed but what percentage of Lib/Nat first preferences flowed to ONP in Hunter in 2025? In Maranoa how strong was the flow of ALP first preferences to ONP rather than Nats?
COMMENT: I suggest you check out an earlier post with all those statistics.
One Nation just needs a decent candidate and $100k to win Dubbo in March ’27. An analysis of that seat would be very interesting.
COMMENT: That’s a long way away.
Agree, Saunders has not revealed any particular talent.
Being an SA based fan of the blog, I would argue the surge in One Nation seems to be a federal phenomon and not necessarily state based. Definitely the Liberals here is SA seem to have improved their chances with a change of leader, yet undoubtebly will struggle against Mali and his popularity. Have One Nation ever done well at a state level?
COMMENT: One Nation polled 2.6% state-wide in 2022 and 6.6% in the 19 seats it contested. A state poll in early December reported Labor 41%, Liberals 21%, Greens 12% and One Nation 13%. That was before the surge in polls for One Nation since the start of January.
Excellent work Antony as always and I do go back over 30 years.
Imo aside from not seeing a pathway for change of government there is a likely cannibalising effect between Nats and Libs, if they both run candidates. It could also be said if the ON trend continues it may be in the last two. Then comes another preference conundrum. The ‘what ifs’are palpable. However a collapse, even in different localities, in the Labor vote is another option not yet in the mix. It is very possible if ever ON’LIB-Nat axis gets its act together. I am sure Antony has run these ‘what ifs’ and a few others.
Can you explain a bit more the basis on which you exclude Indi because of predicted preference flows. Do you mean that Haines would draw more preferences from Lib/Nat in a TCP against ONP compared to a 2PP that is Labor vs ONP?
COMMENT: Mainly because it was a completely different pairing of final candidates to the other 25 seats. One Nation also only reached the final three because Labor’s vote was so low, many Labor voters having shifted to vote for Haines. I suspect One Nation won’t surge as much against well known sitting Independents. Hard to know what might happen until you get a hint of the Liberal HTV.
Antony, this ON hysteria reminds me of the Nick Xenophon hysteria here in SA in the “three way election” that turned out to be very two-way. Both majors united to attack him, and the political machines ran right over him. Will we see the same with ON, or is it different??
COMMENT: Nick agreed to take part in debates with Weatherill and Marshall, making him another politician rather than an outsider campaigning against party politics. He suddenly needed to have more detailed views on what he would do and that’s where it went wrong.
At the 1998 Queensland state election, it didn’t matter what anyone threw at Hanson, her support just went up and up. At the Federal election three months later, the big issue was the Howard government’s GST and tax reform package. One Nation coughed up “Ezytax” with no costing and it was rubbished by everyone who knew anything about tax. The Howard government had also stepped back from the 10 Point Wik Plan, removing one of Hanson’s state election issues. The dominant issue was also about tax reform and One Nation was out of its league and the voters noticed.
I think politics turning serious as an election approaches could work against One Nation. Rather than just complaining about what government has or not has done, they might have to be putting forward specifics about what they want to do. If they don’t, other parties will fill in the detail with horror stories about what One Nation policies will do or cost.
So far, we have spent all our time discussing the rise of One Nation in terms of how many seats they may take from the Nats and, to a lesser extent, the Liberals. That said, I have yet to see anyone present a rational explanation of how any of this brings down Labor from their historic high of 94 seats, beyond a few marginal seats here and there that might flip to someone else by just a few votes.
Some of that was answered in the analysis, which showed that the Liberal seat total has collapsed. The possibility may even exist of Labor becoming competitive in one or two seats if preferences are not completely solid among the centre-right voters. In the end, this feels a bit like musical chairs, with the party names in seats already occupied by the centre-right.
I can see why you’d say that but I do wonder if they will increase their influence in the senate at the expense of the other minor parties, including the Greens and JLN.
But yes, not much impact in the lower house and I won’t be surprised if they don’t get in a single lower house seat.
I’m wondering how much focus should be given to ON when the next election is over two years away. My opinion is that Labor is not yet pursuing a policy agenda and therefore the (former(at the moment)) LNP have not much to oppose. The nation is facing issues around cost of living, taxation and housing and so on the absence of any real action on these issues, ON’s simplistic ‘Blame the immigrants’ strategy is working temporarily.
But once the government starts addressing these issues, the LNP will have something to oppose and that will draw voters away from ON – to either side. In addition, historically ON endure bitter infighting and I doubt they can maintain any party unity for the next two years.
COMMENT: Whether current polling should or should not be given attention so far out from an election is true. But you can’t ignore the polling because it is clearly scaring the crap out of the Liberal Party and especially the National Party.
Unless Labor’s vote collapses, the ALP will possibly increase its representation in the House based on these numbers. A critical number of traditional Liberals (less so the Nationals)might preference the ALP over One Nation. However, One Nation could be a significant force in the Senate if its 25% polling is maintained over the next two half Senate elections. A reduction in the ALP’s primary vote cannot be discounted if cost of living, healthcare and housing issues are not addressed. One Nation has not targeted these issues meaningfully with clear policies as of yet and they probably won’t sway Labor voter’s unless they do so.
Thanks Anthony – going off Peter’s comment – which senate seats would be in play for ON on current polling?
COMMENT: If I get chance I’ll do something on the Senate. It is clear on this polling that One Nation will gain Senate seats. It only has one up for election in 2028 which is Pauline Hanson’s Queensland seat. The only question is from whom they would take the seats.
If a party polls 14.3% it wins one Senate seat, 28.6% for two. As a rough rule of thumb, above 7% a party is in the race for one Senate seat, above 21% in a race for a second.
With the exception of Queensland, I would expect Labor to be above 28% in every state and win two seats. Even in Queensland it can reach a second seat but fell short and won only a single seat in 2019. I would expect the Greens to be above 10% in every state and win a seat in each. 2025 was the first election where the Coalition won on only two seats in each state. Given the polling we are seeing, it would primarily the Coalition losing Senate seats to One Nation.
The reps situation is interesting but speculative this far out. Who knows, between now and the 2028 election the ALP might realise it has a super-majority and even make some tough decisions for the good of the country? They might even legislate fixed 5 year terms – quelle horreur! It’s the senate that looks messy if PHON’s vote reflects their state polling. However I’d have thought if the community independent movement decided to concentrate effort and resources into senate candidate’s’ campaigns, that would put a large dent in PHON’s chances.
COMMENT: You can’t legislate longer parliamentary terms. It can only be achieved by referendum.
Support for community independents is overwhelmingly built on each candidate’s personal profile in the local area, not by being part of a broader movement. They have stated continuously they are Independents, not a party.
David Pocock has been elected in the ACT Senate, but he is the equivalent of a lower house MP in that his attempts to win is in a two-vacancy Senate contest where one seat has been a certain Labor win and the second seat a race between Pocock and the Liberal Party. In the ACT, the Senate contest receives infinitely more coverage than in the states.
There is also the fact Pocock has registered his own party, “David Pocock”. Any Independent group would have to register a party name.
In the lower house Independents are aided in winning seats by Labor and Greens voters switching to vote for the Independent. That will be be harder to achieve in the Senate where the two parties are trying to win their own seats. It would also split support between Labor, the Greens and Independents. In the new Senate system where preferences can exhaust, splitting the vote could cost the combined three party vote seats through exhausted preferences.
In the Senate Independents would lose all the advantages that work in their favour in lower house contests.
“I think politics turning serious as an election approaches could work against One Nation.”
Indeed.
As always Antony, a fascinating and thought provoking analysis.
But, while the above data focusses on 25 lower house seats that you argue would be ON targets, I can’t help but wonder about the Senate where the rise of ON – or it’s improved performance relative to the Libs and /or Nat’s – could presumably have a more significant impact to its benefit and at the cost fo the Libs/Nats.
Usually, as a rough rule of thumb, senate seats in each state go at least 2 each to the ALP and Coalition, and often 5 between them – and an independent or minor party wins 1 or sometimes 2. But it seems quite plausible that ON could be picking up 2 seats in many states, particularly QLD and NSW??
COMMENT: If I get chance I’ll do something on the Senate. It is clear on this polling that One Nation will gain Senate seats. It only has one up for election in 2028 which is Pauline Hanson’s Queensland seat. The only question is from whom they would take the seats.
If a party polls 14.3% it wins one Senate seat, 28.6% for two. As a rough rule of thumb, above 7% a party is in the race for one Senate seat, above 21% in a race for a second.
With the exception of Queensland, I would expect Labor to be above 28% in every state and win two seats. Even in Queensland it can reach a second seat but fell short and won only a single seat in 2019. I would expect the Greens to be above 10% in every state and win a seat in each. 2025 was the first election where the Coalition won on only two seats in each state. Given the polling we are seeing, it would primarily the Coalition losing Senate seats to One Nation.
Go One Nation! We need leaders to stop debating and take practical action. The scourge of motorised bikes used by young people to cause damage to tax-payer provided infrastructure is criminal (as well as threatening and causing fear to other citizens). Anything with a motor should be registered to be used on the road – a light form of registration could apply to low cc’s or young people. Make parents and children responsible for their behaviour – it’s about time! In the next election I will vote for the party with simple and practical solutions to everyday problems.
So, I would be interested in knowing what One Nation would do to address the problem, and how exactly?
All good reading for a one eyed Labor person……..
I wonder if some states will start having quorum problems.
COMMENT: I doubt it. Parliamentary quorums can almost always be met just by the presence of government members so the opposition and crossbench are limited in their ability to disrupt parliamentary sitting by calling for quorums.
Interestingly, in the Senate, ON could end up switching places and getting 2 seats in each state, with Lib/Nat reduced to 1. The combined Lib/Nat/ON still would not reach 38 though. As for Reps, quite clear that the only party with any chance of 76 is ALP. Should ALP fall short of 76, cobbling together 76 in a minority govt would be very tricky for Libs, much easier for ALP. ON could do to Libs what DLP did to ALP, (I hope they do and keep Libs out of office for decades)
It will take about 3 elections for One Nation to have a chance at being in Government so they would need to chip away each time.
25 seats are mentioned above as a chance for One Nation to win.
At the last election Labor 2 party was 55.3% to 44.7% so a swing of 6% Labor loses 22 seats.
A swing of 8% then it is possible Labor could lose 34 seats.
Providing all of the Conservative Parties preference each other.
Polls being used vary from the Morgan Poll to Newspoll and others Auspoll… DemosAU
Antony Green… Which Poll is the most accurate?
What effect will there be if Moderate Liberals give their preference to the Teals OR Labor?
COMMENT: Entirely my own view, but I suspect none of the polls are accurately reflecting how people will vote at the next election. They reflect what they are saying today. We may gave a better measure of how One Nation are performing compared to polls after the South Australian election.
here is my assesment of these seats and the ones i think they can win and an explanation
One Nation Targets based on Three-Candidate Preferred Count in 2025
Three-Candidate Preferred %
Electorate
Wright QLD – upcoming redistribution will likely remove Lockyer, One nations stronghold in that seat. expect this to a solid LNP retain.
Longman QLD – upcoming redistribution is probably gonna help one party one way or the other currently Lbaor would probably win but i suspect the redistribution will remove the parts and help the LNP. LNP retain.
Capricornia QLD – interesting seat upcoming redistribution and rumours of Michelle Landry retiring will probably help One Nation out here. Id suspect James Ashby would want to contest this. Good solid chance of One Nation winning here. Will probably lose Whitsunday and parts of Mackay to Dawson. Gaining Central Highlands, the rest of Rockhampton from Flynn and possible Barcaldine from Maranoa. Likely ONP v LNP contest.
Flynn QLD – again major changes due to redistribution. Will likely lose Central Highlands and Rockhampton to Capricornia. Could probably shed rest of SSouth Burnett to Maranoa. will like gains parts of Gympie and Fraser Coast from Wide Bay. Moderate chance but i think the LNP will hold here. Especially if Labor and the Greens prop them up to keep ONP out.
Hinkler QLD – no major changes at redistribution. id say LNP will hold here due to incumbency and Labor/Greens
Wide Bay QLD – Likely to lose parts of Fraser Coast and Gympie to Flynn. Gaining Nambour and northwards as well as stuff north of the Maroochy river from Fairfax. id say LNP hold.
Lindsay NSW – Easy lib hold. not even sure why this is in contention labor have basically given the finger to the residents here dumping flight paths overhead.
Canning WA – Hastie should hold here especially if hes leader or the libs can manage a moderate recoery now that Ley is gone.
Fadden QLD – LNP hold.
Forde QLD – interesting the reidsitrbuiotn should help the LNp out here losing labor voting booths in Rnakin and moving into frendlier territoyr on the GC. LNP hold.
Parkes NSW – Could get squirley but nats are out in front ONP would need to knock the nats out here as the green and labor will keep the Nats in here. NAT hold.
Dawson QLD – could get interesting again would need to knock LNP out and force it to a ONP v LAB contest to win here.
Hume NSW – Taylor should survive not interested.
Leichhardt QLD – Interesting could benefit from lack of Warren Entschs vote. I doubt the LNp will win here or in Cook. I think Cook at a state level is gonna end up in Katters pocket.
Blair QLD – no chance here redistribution will probably favour labor as it will remove Somerset and be an Ipswich seat with all the growth here. could be interesting in a LABv ONP contest.
Riverina NSW – no chance while McCormak is here
Braddon TAS – possible lower voter numbers could help ONP here. should easily win if they make the 2cp
Nicholls VIC – sold nat seat no chance.
Barker SA – would need to kncok out the libs
Hunter NSW – this seat is probably a chance though its basically split between country regional and outer newcastle lake macquarie. would be an interesting fight if the libs dipped in two.
Gippsland – easy nat hold here
Mallee – nat hold
New England NSW – ONP could win here. good primary vote and Barnaby could indeed hold
Maranoa QLD Littleproud is currently winning on primaries alone Labor oould keep him in.
Burt WA – would need to dent that labor vote.
seats i reckon One Nation can win that arent here
Calare – could give Gee a run
Monash – low lib primary could get thme into the count
Grey – perfect target
Gilmore – liberla problems
Whitlam – decent vote wanting a home, Liberals a shambles here.
One Nation are gonna win some seats. All the haters are gonna rue this day. 7 seats seems 14 potential.
Voters say one thing, but they may do something entirely different on polling day. One nation will improve, there’s no doubt about that, but they will fall well short of what the polls suggest. People engage in a kind of political Stockholm syndrome ,they say ” I’m voting for one nation ” .When they get to use the pencil on the paper, they get back to liberal or labour the devil they know
Longman will have a large redistribution before the next Election. This will hopefully cull a lot of ON support. The incumbent Terry Young won on the Donkey Vote, even after a preference swap agreement with ON.
ON and Lnp can squabble over second place.
Great information, Anthony. Could you give us an update based on the huge surges of support for One Nation in June, focusing on the ALP’s more vulnerable electorates?
COMMENT: Whatever the level of One Nation vote, the seats listed in this post remain the most vulnerable. The most vulnerable seats will remain Coalition seats. But with support riding from 6% in 2025 to 30% today, the 2025 results become less useful as a guide.